Nasdaq's epic collapse, the break of technology stock bubbles or the end of the cycle?丨 丨 氪

Will the Internet continue to re -paint the global wealth map?

Wen ｜ Song Wanxin

Edit ｜ Pan Xinyi

Source ｜ 36 氪 Finance (ID: krfinance)

Cover Source ｜ Vision China

The latest inflation data in the United States has triggered market panic, and concerns about radical interest rate hikes have been pushed to a climax again.

The U.S. Department of Labor said on the 13th that the US consumer price index rose 8.3%year -on -year, higher than the 8.1%expected by economists. Affected by the news, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.16%, and the market value of six major technology companies such as Apple and Microsoft evaporated a total of $ 500 billion.

Always, there are more than one factor for the rise and fall of scientific and technological stocks. Looking back at the 30 -year super cycle of science and technology, each time of the innovation of science and technology element is accompanied by a fierce change in financial policy. The influence of multiple factor intertwined. Is the plunge of Nasdaq, the end of the bubble or the end of the cycle?

2000: Bubble

In July 2000, Wu Gansha graduated from the School of Computer, Fudan University, and he joined Intel.

At this time, 7 years after the invention of Wanwei.com and CERN announced in 1993, CERN announced that the Internet has passed for free. In the second half of the 1990s, thanks to the continuous deepening of PC's penetration and the advent of the capital loosening cycle, the market's preference for science and technology stocks was significantly higher.

Wu Gansha clearly remembers that when he first took the company's stock, the stock price was $ 69, "almost at the highest point." Compared with the performance of low volume and price since listing, Intel's stock price, which has taken the Internet Express, has risen all the way from US $ 3.98 in 1995, up to $ 75.81 in September 2000.

With the improvement of personal computers in the Internet era, as one of the best semiconductor chip manufacturers in the world, Intel and Microsoft together formed the "Wintel" alliance to start occupying desks and desks worldwide.

From the data point of view, from 1990 to 1997, the proportion of American families with computers increased from 15%to 35%; as of the end of 1999, China had a total of 3.5 million online computers, and the number of Internet users was about 8.9 million. It is also these two markets that have become the main stage for science and technology Internet companies in the next 20 years.

However, if some investors buy Intel's stock at the highest point in September 2000, then to this day, the investment has not yet achieved a profit and loss balance. One month after touching the highest point, Intel plummeted 45%, and by September 2002, Intel's stock price was only $ 13. For 22 years, Intel's stock price has never been able to climb to a peak of $ 75.81.

The foam of more companies comes earlier. On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq index reached a peak of 5048.62. After setting a record high, the listed company of Nasdaq began a wave of closure. After the 9.11 incident, the situation turned sharply. By October, the overall market value of Nasdaq had evaporated by 75%.

In the following two years, the Nasdaq has continued to decline, and once reached a quarter of the highest point, it contributed one of the largest financial foams in American history. During this period, many Internet companies evaporated or fell into the world, only a few "survivors" such as Amazon and eBay.

The collapse of the dam is actually the self -sacrifice of the Internet blind obedience. They regard the innovation engine as a bargaining chip in exchange for profits.

The new beast of the Internet broke into the capital market in the middle of the night in the afternoon of 1990s. The network effect brought by the .COM mode successfully persuaded investors to bet on the business model of "the user volume soar but no profit".

A often mentioned example is Amazon. In the early days of the founder Besos, the founder always adhered to the "get big first", that is, in order to pursue market leadership, he would rather expand its profit quickly. As a result, the network effect was amazing. Amazon, which was established only three years, was successfully listed in 1997 and became the target of capital.

The carnival of the secondary market technology stocks completely overturned the market's valuation methodology for Internet technology companies, and the American IPO market, which has been silent for many years, was restless. In 1999, the number of IPOs in the United States reached 272, while the number was only 10 in 1995. At the same time, 40%of venture capital funds flowed to Internet companies.

Venture Capital and entrepreneurs urgently sent the startup to the secondary market, causing a deformed assessment indicator. Capital values ​​the market share, not the true value of the company. The balloon supplied by the growth stocks is getting bigger and bigger, which has laid a foreshadowing for the burying of the Internet bubble in the future.

"At that time, the .com did not need to make money, and it didn't matter if you lost money. As long as there was a concept, you could go public. Anyway, everyone can count how much money it can make in the future. When the public forms expectations, and the reflection effect of the financial market, no one will be able to do it. With so much tube, the expansion will become bigger and bigger. "

What he said was Zhuang Weiguo. After graduating from Beiyou in 1998, he entered China's largest communication equipment manufacturer Bell Communication -then Bell Communication was in a high -speed period, and the scale was three times that of Huawei. Bell Communication, which has gathered many Chinese computer talents, has also become the front line of observation from the Internet industry from prosperity to brewing.

The trend of the.COM in the United States quickly affected the domestic Internet financing. The earliest venture capital IDG that entered China was very straightforward at that time, that is, to find a company in China that is the same as the American model. At the same time with Zhuang Weiguo, Wang Jiangang, who came to Bell Communication at the same time, saw the airport of.COM. After joining the job one year, he left his work and bet on his college project project Allyes.com. In early 2000, after Wang Jiangang conveyed from IDG, Allyes.com was the Chinese version of Double Clic (an American online advertising service provider), which easily received $ 1.5 million in financing.

Ma Zhibo, the co -founder of the financial data company companion data, believes that in the mid -to -late 1990s, the Federal Reserve's trend of trending liquidity is undoubtedly the catalyst of this Internet revolution. The stock market cannot always please everyone.

In 1995 and 1998, the Federal Reserve conducted two interest rate cuts. At that time, the Federal Reserve Chairman Green Panpan took the market as the policy orientation, focusing on whether the market was prosperous, and the main financial market financing methods for financing for private capital, insufficient control of commercial bank loans. The cost is significantly reduced, and the liquidity of the dollar has begun to flood, driving stock investment preferences from profit to valuation.

Under the policy cliff, a large number of information technology and Internet -related stock market investment bubbles have emerged. "Battered money" has continued to pour into the field of science and technology. Investors have discovered new golden places.

In February 2000, the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes, the stock price of high valuation startups was under pressure, and the panic of market investors was pushed higher and higher, and everyone would no longer "pretend to be stupid" overnight.

In March of that year, a report from the financial magazine "Burning Up" reported the current status of the Internet company: among the 207 Internet companies surveyed, 71%of the company's profits are negative, 51 companies' profits, and 51 companies have The cash will be used up within 12 months, and even the star company Amazon's cash flow can only last for 10 months. Many founders and early investors of many Internet companies are doing their best. The funds from the old economic system to the new economic system are exhausted immediately, and Internet companies that have no money to burn, no money, and make money are about to fall into the altar.

It was also around 2000. China stocks opened the first wave of US stock markets. Sina, Sohu, Netease and other portal websites have successively landed in the US market.

At this time, Chinese Internet companies just emerged to the world. Although the Internet bubble quickly cooled the waves, as the US Internet industry entered a recovery period, especially after Ctrip successfully landed on Nasdaq in 2003 ignite.

At that time, domestic public opinion discussed that Chinese Internet companies listed in the United States were the objects of international investment banks and international capital speculation and a feast shared. However, aside from risks, the bubbles do not look at the bubbles. Many of these Chinese stocks constitute the basic market of the Internet in the future. During the next mobile Internet period, they successfully broke into the global Internet industry negotiation table.

2010: All in

The transfer of Internet discourse rights often happen silently.

"There are two key events from 2007 to 2009. One is that foreign companies have lost public car black cards, and the other is the merger of tax systems in domestic and foreign enterprises. The policy dividends are in the end. Foreign companies will no longer prestige. I think talents start to flow to domestic Internet companies. It ’s so much. Wu Gansha lamented.

In the alternation of the technological innovation cycle, whoever can recover new traffic virgin land, whoever can pry the leverage of destiny first.

In 2007, the first iPhone Apple, with its own power, has led to the emergence of the new production factors of smartphones, migrating the flow entrance from the PC to the mobile terminal.

With the advantages of manufacturing and demographic dividend, Chinese Internet companies have emerged in the mobile Internet era. The latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that in 2021, the national online retail sales reached 13.1 trillion yuan, and the digital consumer market size was the world's largest; 10 companies ranked among the top 30 market value of global Internet companies, and their core competitiveness continued to increase.

On the table of global Internet companies, Chinese companies no longer stay in the breakthrough stage, and they have occupied important seats. The formation background of the current competition pattern is intricate, and the process has continued.

Take 2011 to 2012 as an example. At that time, the crisis of China Stock Trust was swept the US capital market. Muddy water, Xiangyu and other institutions were short -term Chinese stocks. About 40 companies delisted in two years, and the atmosphere was tense for a while.

For smart investors, this is also the best time to discover the "golden pit".

After the Internet bubble crisis, Zhuang Weiguo has been waiting for the opportunity of technology stocks. "From 2005 (Tencent), it rose from 50 yuan to 176 yuan. In 2008, the financial crisis did not fall much. At that time, I felt that the company was abroad."

Among the surviving China -stock companies, Zhuang Weiguo chose Qihoo 360. His idea is: "No matter what the means of promoting the security guards at that time, objectively this software did not popularize on each computer, and second only to QQ. At that time The advantage of PC can be transmitted smoothly to the phone. "

From 2012 to early 2014, Qihoo 360 rose ten times more than a dozen dollars to $ 120, making his first bucket of gold in the US stocks. The principle of investment in the "transition to the mobile Internet" that he adheres to the mobile Internet has also become one of the basic logic of supporting US stock technology stocks after the financial crisis in 2008. After the emergence of mobile Internet, cloud computing and digitalization, five mobile Internet companies represented by FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Naiti, Google), from 2009 to 2018, profit increased 6 times, accounting for the S & P 500 ratio. Increase from 3%to 9%.

The improvement of science and technology, the improvement of the productivity of science and technology is not the only factor. According to a report released by Guangfa Securities, after the financial crisis in 2008, the interest rate of US debt long -term continued low interest rates, and the cost of borrowing was extremely low, which led to the continued higher leverage rate of American companies.

Thanks to extremely low borrowing costs, high leverage did not bring obvious financial risks to American companies, but instead promoted its continued high stock price. FAANG, a high -profit company represented by FAANG, has further enhanced EPS and thickened the profitability of enterprises when its profits are high.

In the loose financial environment, US stock technology stocks have long maintained "high profit margins" and "high leverage ratio", and expansion naturally became the main theme of this period. In the Internet company of "human is asset", the demand for programmers has entered a climax.

"It's too easy to find a job. Google basically recruit hundreds of newcomers every hundred or two weeks." In 2014, Xu Wei graduated from a graduate student in the United States. After a few years in Facebook, he began to be responsible for user growth.

Growth in Facebook is "a formula that will never be wrong". Xu Wei has done a lot of growth -related experiments to improve the "growth formula" to ensure how much users can bring to a certain indicator.

Among Facebook's many growth methods, "the person you may know (the project abbreviation code is Pymk)" is proven to be one of the most effective growth tools, and it is also the main item that Xu Wei was at that time. Let the user add Y friends in the sky, XY will be distinguished according to different regions. "

In 2017, Facebook's DAU in the United States has encountered a decline. Xu Wei has formed a separate US growth team. Two months, through the model adjustment, it is easy to change from negative growth. Powerful experimental systems, when doing experiments, dozens of experiments in each version, the entire system will not collapse, and I can control all experiments alone. "

Relying on the "formula", Facebook has become a ten -year permanent growth machine. For Internet companies in the 2010s, almost everyone has regarded "endless growth" as Gui.

After many years of games, the Sino -US Internet is often considered to be two split positions. It also occurs from time to time, but the pursuit of growth is surprisingly consistent.

In China's Internet industry, in order to achieve user growth, the commercialization of "algorithms" is an indelible footnote in the era of mobile Internet.

In 2012, today's headlines were launched. Relying on decentralized recommendation algorithms, it broke free from the old mechanism of the portal website. 5 years of DAU exceeded 100 million. Douyin, which was launched in 2016, was purely familiar with the algorithm and sent it to the invention of the mobile Internet era. As a result, how much the growth of any mobile APP does it basically depends on how deep the research of intelligent algorithms is. Essence

Another direction of growth is to broaden the track. Each domestic segment has been re -made by the mobile Internet, and many "first stocks of the Internet" were born. In 2019, the first new oxygen of the Internet medical beauty was listed on the Nasdaq; in 2018, the first Tiger tooth for the game live on the Nasdaqi on the NYSE and the second -hand car e -commerce company listed on the Nasdaq; 2017 In the year, the first temple library of luxury e -commerce companies was listed in Nasdaq ...

In the years of the mobile Internet crazy, from the founder to LP, from the first market to the secondary market, almost no one did not make money, everyone sat into the rapid rise of the elevator -pressing the button, closed the door, and the door was closed, and the door was closed, and the door was closed. Enjoy growth.

The hotter the market, the higher the price is coaxed, and the decision -making time for hot money is limited.

In 2016, a head mobile phone manufacturer entered the drone business, and the investor flock to the seat to fight for the seat. A head of a foreign hard technology enterprise investment department was among them. Faced with the situation of an investment institution in an enterprise, the mobile phone manufacturer stated at the time, "Only for this hard technology company for a week to decide whether to invest."

In front of Xinfeng, the large manufacturer does not necessarily have more rights to speak. At that time, the hard technology company of the head of the head could not be squeezed into DJI and 3D Robotics. So before it was tangled, the then CEO decided to put aside the special approval of the process and discussion. When the mobile phone manufacturer's drone project was still blank, it invested 200 million US dollars.

Under the times, there are also personal fate to be changed inadvertently.

One year before the rupture of the Internet bubble, Zhang Hongjiang, who had served as the director of the HP laboratory in the United States, returned to China. He participated in the founding of the Microsoft Research Institute as the vice president, and together with Li Kaifu, Zhang Yaqin, and Shen Xiangyang, he created it together and created it. The glorious history of the Microsoft Asia Research Institute. From 2005 to 2007, the domestic Internet companies were fierce, and head Internet companies such as Baidu and Ali repeatedly threw olive branches to Zhang Hongjiang, but he hesitated.

In 2008, Wang Jian, a colleague of Zhang Hongjiang Microsoft Research Institute, joined Ali, helped to lay the Jiangshan of Alibaba Cloud, and became "the first person in private enterprise." With Wang Jian's Ali, the pass at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century has gained the next key ten -year ticket.

It is just that the Shengzhang of the mobile Internet is also short, and it is close to saturation in 5 years. Douyin, which was launched in 2016, almost occupied the last seat of the mobile Internet.

2022: Clearance

In the fourth quarter of last year, Facebook's growth machine stopped for the first time and lost hundreds of thousands of users. "Now the growth model can't help Facebook." Xu Wei felt that the company was "good at things", and no new growth method has been found yet.

"The condition for this method (growth formula) is still in a monopoly position, and the other is that the market is still incremental. At this time, it can be solved through internal methods." Xu Wei said, "But the disadvantage is that the internal data is short -term in the short term. , Can't measure long -term impact and changes in external occurrence. "

The transformation of the external environment is a common proposition over the past two years.

The epidemic in 2020 brought the last traffic to the U.S. stock Internet company, and then continued to shrink and decline; the US government's large -scale water release of water during the epidemic stimulated the economy, which created the illusion of the short -term stock market. Essence Beginning this year, the "hardest bubble" is entering the final stage of breaking money. Investor Jeremy Grantham has warned that an epic collapse is coming.

The bell that ended in 20 years of gold has sounded. "From last year to the present, I feel like the" Great Clearance "of the most glorious era since 2008." Zhuang Weiguo said.

When Ma Zhibo went to study in the United States in 2008, he just met the financial crisis. As soon as he landed on the American mentor, he said "no money", and his classmates who went to California told him that there was no hand paper in public schools to the toilet. "After I entered Goldman Sachs later, I found that 2008 was a bad turning in the United States, and it has not been corrected until now."

"The easiest logic, when the economic crisis, everyone should suffer, because it must be done before, but in 2008, the United States purchased a lot of bad assets and companies in 2008 to cover up the truth and disrespect the economic cycle. As a result, the current situation is not as good as the foam in 2000. "

Beginning in 2021, the Internet dividends will be exhausted, global regulatory tightening, and a series of factors of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Chinese stocks and Nasdaq have plummeted collectively and instantly. All the growth of dividends even for twenty years.

On June 13 this year, the three major stock indexes of the US stocks hit a new low in the past year after the empty opening was open. Among them, the S & P 500 index fell 22%from the 4804 high in early January. U.S. stocks officially entered the bear. Nasdaq is even more fierce, and it has fallen by nearly 30%from the beginning of the year.

According to Wall Street, Michael Hartnett, a well -known US Bank of -US chief investment strategist, recently said that all factors that have promoted the high -Powering earnings ratio of the stock market this century have been reversed: quantitative loose, financial expansion is reversed; trade, personnel, and capital of capital Freedom flow is restricted; the peaceful situation of geopolitics is gradually disappearing ... Instead, it is a higher inflationary new normal, which means that cash, commodities, and multi -volatility will be better than bonds and stocks than bonds and stocks. Performance.

Several domestic and foreign sovereign funds told 36 氪 that the current strategy is "no brainless", "go empty as soon as it rebounds". Interest, and it is necessary to shrink the table. If the two are carried out together, the assets are falling. At present, I haven't seen the inflection point of the macro environment. "

A month ago at the Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Conference, Fed Chairman Powell had said that the United States would continue to take measures to "strongly" fight inflation, but at the same time warned that strong interest rate hikes would bring "pain" to American families and enterprises.

The latest institutional forecast shows that the probability of CPI data exceeded that in August, and the Federal Reserve's probability of 100 basis points in the next rate of interest rate hikes was 47%. The market expects the Fed to control prices and will continue to increase interest rate hikes.

Affected by the news, the three major stock indexes in the New York stock market fell sharply on September 13. Among them, the Nasdaq Comprehensive Index fell 632.84 points to close at 11633.57 points, a decrease of 5.16%. In terms of sectors, the S & P 500 Index Eleven Plates fell across the board, and the communication service sector and the technology sector led a decline with 5.63%and 5.35%.

Faced with a scene of acquaintance, worrying again was mentioned again: Is the crisis coming again?

If the last round of foam rupture is valuation killing, this time, Internet companies are facing performance killing, and behind the fundamentals of the Internet have changed significantly. In the first quarter of this year, the financial report of Naifei lost 2 million users caused the market to panic instantly. Naifei fell 35%a day, and the market value of 50 billion US dollars evaporated.

The arrival of the crisis is not unprecedented. In the past ten years, the number of Netflix users can continue to grow. Without him, only to continue to burn money. However, once the market space is exhausted, all the problems that have been burned in exchange for market share will be revealed one by one. According to the Calculation of Nafei Financial Report, if the cost of the content of its content is on each user head, the acquisition cost of a single user has been rising.

Once, due to the low threshold for listing in the US capital market, at the same time, the recognition of Internet technology companies was high and can absorb global funds. Chinese Internet companies were keen to go public in the United States. However, due to the recent performance of the US stock market, China Stocks also dived or even collapsed from time to time.

Similarly, most of the China -Tech companies have to face the problem of bonus. Taking e -commerce as an example, Ali released the fourth fiscal quarterly financial report released by fiscal year in May this year, and Ali ’s net profit for the year was 47 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 67%, while the e -commerce miracle Pinduoduo only revenue in the fourth quarter of last year. 2.5%. Ali CFO Xu Hong said that controlling cash balance is one of his main tasks in the next year.

All indicators of various Internet companies and exaggerated layoffs point to a future -the Internet is difficult to have waves.

Recalling that in 2000, Ma Zhibo felt that the bubble rupture could not be called "miserable". The reason why it is broken, "there is still initiative and a little rational." He felt that the current situation was not even as good as that at that time. The Internet from scratch was explosive. "That generation is lucky, and now even if the Internet is upgraded, it cannot be compared with that era."

"Without the revolutionary growth of that era, the problems faced were even more severe." He concluded.

"Live by bubble"

Before 2016, Wu Gansha's identity was the Dean of the Intel Chinese Research Institute. After leaving Intel, Wu Gansha founded the power driving enterprise to control the momentum technology. According to his description, it was not because of Intel's badness, but because he saw it "more A good future. "

"In the 20th year, the PC was PC from 1976 to 1996. Jobs and Bill Gates founded their company. It was the Internet from 1996 to 16. I guess that it was artificial intelligence in 2016." Wu Gansha said.

The incident that made him feel like was the loss of Go Shishi in 2016 to AlphaGo.

For a while, investors began to study AI, holding money to find a team, startup companies began to promote their scientists and technical papers, and hot money poured into the AI ​​industry.

According to the statistics of the "Blue Book of the Development of the Artificial Intelligence Industry in 2021", in the past nine years (global) the equity investment behavior before IPO in the field of artificial intelligence, a total of 2048 investment occurred with an investment amount of 480 billion yuan, and the peak period of investment was 2015 in 2015 In the year-2018, at the same time, the intelligent hardware, VR/AR, and electric vehicle industrial chain that artificial intelligence can penetrate also took the opportunity to sit on the accelerator.

In addition to the seats of the new project of mature manufacturers, investors in the "first year of AI" also extended the tentacles to a more upstream position: scientists.

During the scientific research of Tsinghua University's Jingyi Department, Wu Guanhao's main research direction is lidar, which is a key technology at the level of autonomous driving perception. After several core technical papers of the team were published, the investors kept coming to the door to express their willingness to invest in investment -even at the time, the dispute over the perception of laser radar and cameras was not clear, and even the market was more inclined to cost more costs and more Low camera scheme.

Wang Shiwei, who had just worked in Xintong Academy for a year, was Wu Guanhao's fellow younger brother in Tsinghua. Wu Guanhao conveyed the wishes of the investor. Wang Shiwei decided to resign for himself without hesitation. Almost before the establishment of "Tanwei Technology", the investors stuffed their money into their hands, and the company's beginning was extremely smooth.

However, the situation quickly turned down.

The autonomous driving track was also held in the palm of 2018, and it became a doorke in the middle of the year. "We have been looking for the second round of financing since 18 years, and have been found in the winter of 19 years, and it took more than a year." Wang Shiwei said that the first round of financing was talking about cutting -edge technology. In the second round, we were talking about "business Genetic genes.

Like the bubble 18 years ago, investors discovered a cruel fact that has existed since the beginning -AI companies have no income.

As the industry was cold, a group of upstream companies such as Tanwei Technology were forced to tighten their belts. "Angel round financing for two years." Wang Shiwei recalled.

The path of capital flow gradually narrowed. The downstream companies have difficulty in financing in the secondary market, and the exit of investment institutions has become difficult. The secondary market lacks capital outflows. Under the influence of conduction, the lack of funds will return to the first market.

The second -level market is "incomparable". The consensus based on the Internet is disintegrated, and investors are crowded into the "hard technology" pool. In the environment of "no consensus", investors' attention becomes decentralized, including artificial intelligence and semiconductors of several ups and downs, as well as the new beliefs and web3.0.

What is unchanged is that Qian always has a way out, and it is always making new foam.

At the end of last year, Ni Zhengdong, the founder of Qingke entrepreneurial, said in a forum that he would think that he would invest in semiconductor 5 years or even 10 years ago. Others would think you were stupid, but today there is no mainstream fund that is not investing in semiconductors. The data given by Ni Zhengdong shows that in a typical Matthew industry such as semiconductor, the number of investment cases reached more than 1,000 cases last year.

After 20 years of ups and downs of the Internet, Wu Gansha is now a bit unclear. "What is the concept of (more than 1,000)? I heard."

Yu Kai, the founder of Horizon, previously posted a circle of friends, "Domestic chip entrepreneurial streaming films have been successful, and they lie to Xiaobai investors. It is meaningless. Under the current technical conditions of development and test verification, digital chips want to claim to be due to their technology due to their technology. It is very difficult to pursue high and streaming films. It is meaningless to successfully sell the chip to sell the chip. "

Wang Chen is responsible for investing in financing at a A -share listed chip company, but has been accustomed to the "crazy" in the circle. "Randoms are tens of billions of valuations, but according to our surveys, those more popular domestic GPU R & D teams are average."

Wang Chen found that many streamlined companies did not do well, but melted tens of billions. "Can this kind of project make money? Investors do not want to make money for LP."

"But from the perspective of GP, they can obtain the superficial high returns through drumming flowers." He said, "For example, if 5 billion yuan is invested, the next round of finding a new fund will be connected to 10 billion, and he will turn over. Times. Maintain the foam by the surface revenue. "

If you look back at the history of GPU, it is not difficult to find that this is already an exclusive battlefield of a giant. Nvidia and AMD basically divide all markets. From the perspective of commercial competition, there is no room for new companies. From the return on investment, the chip industry has a long period of cycle, high investment, and high commercial uncertainty.

Such a market attracted nearly 200 billion yuan in investment last year.

It does not sound logical, but Wang Chen can see the reason behind the high valuation. First, it is in line with the direction of the national policy, and then the cold winter environment in the first -level market. "It will be even colder next. Everyone has nothing to invest, but the funds must always find a place to arch the bubble."

Wang Chen further explained: "Bubbles in the first -level market are easier to manipulate, and naturally have the prerequisite for bubbles. Several traders can conspire to lift the price up -of course, it is an unfair price."

In the eyes of investors, this wave of chip investment opportunities including GPU is likely to be one of the rare slightly certain tracks that have been rare for a long time.

However, since this year, Wang Chen has seen the GPU project that he has found a lot of prices. "The previous gameplay has begun to be punished by the market."

The high valuations brought about by the extremely abundant liquidity in the past two years have now been unable to undertake the secondary market, especially those technology companies that lack profitability. The valuation is upside down, resulting in breaking throughout the place, and companies that have been listed this year this year have been confirmed.

"Entrepreneurs who are still financing can not fall their own worth, otherwise in the first -level market, it is to prove their expired behavior." After the bad listing, it was forced to delay the IPO plan of the listed company. All companies and money are all money. All companies and money are all money. its stuck.

In the unprecedented decline, everyone is looking for a track that can still fight the cycle. The chip is one, and the Yuan universe comes with the savior's general attitude.

In the second half of last year, a familiar scene slowly expanded: the BP, which has a variety of BPs with the Yuan universe, has received financing; companies in various web2.0 eras at home and abroad have changed their names, and the elements of the Yuan universe have been successfully increased. —— ". COM" foam seems to have never happened, and people are devoted to the carnival of the "next -generation computing platform" in the belief.

The big factory also couldn't hide the anxiety. One year before Xu Wei joined Facebook, in 2014, the company acquired Oculus, but for many years, this VR hardware company had no sound.

Xu Wei told 36 氪: "Facebook began to find new increases early, and tried to incubate countless products internally. Everyone did not know that it was because they all failed." In desperation Opportunities, "It should make Oculus contribute, and Apple's privacy policy has caused Facebook to lose heavy losses. Zuckerberg hopes to break it and you will not be able to do the lowest downstream, and you must become a new upstream."

Zuckerberg's original idea of ​​the new story was that Meta seized the Yuan universe track as soon as possible, so the rules of the following were formulated by him, and the developer also made things under his system. Essence However, it was renamed Meta for only 8 months, and the company's market value was only less than 500 billion US dollars.

The rapid ups and downs of the Yuan Cosmic Wind can be understood. After all, "Web3.0" and "DAO" and other new concepts that sound more high -end have been replaced by the Yuan universe and taken away the attention of investors.

According to incomplete statistics, even in such a cold winter, only in the first half of this year, more than 30 investment institutions have announced the establishment of Web3 investment funds, with a total investment scale exceeding 17 billion US dollars. Industry fund, this year has invested in more than 20 Web3.0 companies. According to Wang Chen, the funds must always find a place in an arch foam. "After all, most people need to live by bubble."

From the PC Internet, the mobile Internet to the artificial intelligence, and the Yuan universe, each technology industry has entered a downward cycle, and the panic "bubble theory" is always indispensable. But now it seems that "bubble" may no longer be important, and science and technology problems are no longer just science and technology issues. A more complicated uncertainty shrouds people.

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