"Ocean Forecast" | Application Research on the Calculation Calculation of Typhoon Storm in Typhoon Storm

Author:National Ocean Forecasting Tai Time:2022.09.10

Application research in the calculation of composite polar value in Typhoon Storm Tide Increasing Reconstruction Period Calculation Period Calculation Period

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Author: Fu Xiang Liang Sendong Li Tao Wu Shaohua

Unit: National Marine Environment Forecast, Beijing 100081

Category Number: P731.23

Publishing Year · Volume · Period (page number): 2022 · 39 · Fourth Issue (1-8)

Abstract: In the case of a small sample or irregular polar value, the discrete distribution describing the number of random events is introduced. Taking Sansha Station as an example, the composite value of Poisson-Gumbel is distributed in the typhoon storm recurrence period calculation period calculation period calculation period The application effect.结果表明：复合极值分布计算结果对样本数据较为敏感，标准差小的样本数据其复合分布的低频值显著偏低；对具有一定离散度的短时间序列数据，复合分布的计算结果稳定，且The estimation of the low frequency value is also more accurate; for the data of the longer sequence, the low frequency of the high frequency occurs is more accurate, and the high frequency value of the low frequency is more accurate.

Keywords: composite extreme value distribution; reproduction period; typhoon storm trend; threshold

Abstract：Taking Sansha station as an example, this paper studies the application effect of Poisson-Gumbel compound extreme value distribution in calculating the return period of typhoon storm surge, which considers the conditions of small samples or irregular extreme value samples and introduces the discrete distribution describing the occurrence of random events. The results show that the calculation results of compound extreme value distribution is relatively sensitive to samples, and the low frequency value of the compound distribution of the sample data with small standard deviation is significantly lower. For the short time series observation data with a certain degree of dispersion, the calculation result of the compound distribution is stable, and the estimation of the low-frequency value is also more accurate. For longer time series data, the high frequency occurrence value is more accurate if the Threshold value is a loger, and the low footment obcurrence value is more accura Te if the threshold value is a higher.

Key words: compound exce value distribution; return period; typhoon storm surge; threshold

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Wave message

Affected by Typhoon Plum No. 12 this year, it is expected that from September 12th to 17th, there will be a process of giant waves in the waters of the East Ocean, East China Sea, Diaoyu Islands, and the south of the Yellow Sea in Taiwan.

The National Oceanic Forecasting Desk reminds the ships operating in the above waters to avoid waves. Due to the uncertainty of the typhoon path, please pay attention to the follow -up warning of our Taiwan in time.

In the next two days, the marine environment forecast is expected tomorrow,

There are light waves from 0.8 to 1.5 meters in the northern part of the Bohai, the Yellow Sea, and the northern part of the East China Sea;

The waters of the south of the East China Sea, the sea areas near the Diaoyu Islands, the Taiwan Strait, and the Basilica Strait are 2.5 to 4 meters from large waves to the huge wave district;

There are 4 to 7 meters from the east ocean to the crazy wave area;

There are light waves from 0.8 to 1.5 meters in the South China Sea;

Beibu Gulf has a light wave of 0.6 to 1.1 meters.

Expected the day after tomorrow,

The waters of the south of the East China Sea, the sea areas near the Diaoyu Islands, the Dalang District of the Taiwan Strait, and the Basilica Strait maintain the waves high by 3 to 5 meters;

Taiwan is maintained with the big waves on the east, and the waves are 4 to 7 meters.

On September 10th to 14th

Beautiful island waters sea conditions

Expected tomorrow,

There are large waves of 3.4 meters near the sea area near the Diaoyu Islands, and there are 2.4 meters of central waves near the waters near Sandu Island.

There are 2 meters of Zhonglang near Pingtan Island, Dongji Island, Dachen Island, Dongtou Island, Nanji Island, Laoshan Island, and Meizhou Island. There are 1.3 ~ 1.6 meters in the sea. Travel by boat;

The waters near the other beautiful islands in my country are light waves, with good sea conditions, and they are very suitable for traveling and island.

Beautiful island refers to the following 35 islands:

Juehua Island, Changshan Islands, Bodhi Island, Long Island, Liu Gong Island, Lingshan Island, Qinshan Island, Lianjima, Chongming Island, Shengsi Islands, Sushan Island, Dongji Island, Putuo Mountain, Dachen Island, Yuhuan Island, Dongdong Tou Island, Nanji Island, Laoshan Island, Sandu Island, Pingtan Island, Meizhou Island, Dongshan Island, Diaoyu Island, South Australia Islands, Wanshan Islands, Sichuan Shan Islands, Hailing Island, South Island Dazhou Island, Boundary Island, Wuzhizhou Island, Yongxing Island, Huangyan Island, Yongshu Reef.

More coastal tourism forecasts are all in China's marine forecast

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