The price of domestic milk powder behind Feihe's plunge

Inventory backlog, when will the milk powder be closed?

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Produced/New Business Review

Shanshan's mother was preparing to change the three -stage milk powder for her children to change star, but she did not dare to start because the price was "too cheap". Anhui mother and baby shop owner Li Qing (pseudonym) gives a solution on the spot: If you don't add 30/40 to the price of the original barrel 210, you will be balanced in your heart.

As soon as this remark, Shanshan's mother laughed. The boss bitterly explained that the milk powder was because the dealer took the goods in batches and sold it to sell it to kill the price so low.

But even so, Shanshan Mom did not dare to buy it. She was cautiously unwilling to make a child's safety and joke, but couldn't help thinking: Is it the same psychology of being a mother? Is it worth trusting for domestic milk powder?

1. "Charming the goods", Feihe can't sell anymore

There should be no tangled sale in the world than choosing milk powder. After experiencing the "melamine" incident, Chinese parents are more cautious about buying milk powder for their children. Once the frequency of money can be made, the price -sensitive social animal parents can not hold it.

Especially when you find that the price of the same milk powder can have dozens of or hundreds of gaps, the heart will inevitably jump repeatedly between the huge discount temptation and fear of buying fake and shoddy products.

Xiaotang (pseudonym), which is watched in the shopping guide circle than the three, often has similar mental internal consumption, like the official retail price of 700G Star Feifan in the 3 section of Feihe 368, a maternal and infant shop for 336 cans to send two small cans. Yu buy one free one, and the B mother and baby shop can get the goods just 210.

Just as Xiaotang was about to abandon the order because of the difference, the shopping guide took the initiative to make such an explanation: Since Feihe launched the internal code system, the price of milk powder has increased by 30 to 40 yuan. It's old packaging.

The inner code is a two -dimensional code printed on the D -shaped area of ​​the aluminum foil. Its invention was originally for the traceability of genuine products, preventing the date of the old date, and disrupting the traceability code and code -yards to disturb the market.

However, in recent years, the milk powder industry has not been connected. Both small and medium -sized enterprises and dealers and maternal and baby stores have fallen into low -priced rolls. The price difference between different channels and the same channels are not uniform. The price control of the survival war has become more difficult, so that the channel price of the channels of the Crane Crane has been in chaos in the past six months, and has not harvested the expected effect.

It can be said that many dealers and maternal and infant shops were forced to join the price war. In the past, "six get one", "seven get two", and the discounts of various events were superimposed. JD.com's 357 yuan/barrel of Xingfei Fan 2 sections, the transaction price ranged from 180 to 338, some even outrageous to the official website price It's expensive.

How much does Xingfei Fan still open the question? Customers who bought at high prices felt that they had suffered a loss, and they bought fakes at low prices. The bosses stated that they were absolutely genuine for their homes. Like the boss Li Qing mentioned at the beginning of the article, the milk powder that had been priced at 210 was newly packaged and there was inner code.

We cannot predict the duration of this chaos of "channeling", but there are real data proved that the price of milk powder is "not easy to sell".

According to the 2022 semi -annual report released by Feihe, the company's earnings in the first half of the year were RMB 9.673 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 16.2%; gross profit was 6.537 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 22.7%; profit (net profit) was 2.272 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.7 year -on -year decrease %.

This change of income has nothing to do with the "fresh" strategy launched by Feihe. Feihe hopes to invent to reducing pressure on the dealer and chaotic channel price. On the morning of September 8, 2022, the market value of Feihe fell from the highest peak over 200 billion Hong Kong dollars to around 52 billion.

Second, who is the most injured when the interest chain collapses

Flying cranes, which once rose against the trend, were slowing down, and the days of milk powder agents in various countries were not good.

Shandong agent Ma Hao (pseudonym) looked up and saw that the warehouse was stacked with a 9 -layer high milk powder box. He bowed his head and remembered the third quarter of the payment of the third quarter under the factory. The backlog of inventory was originally commonplace, and the sales task of the brand side was too heavy, and the pressure of the channel party was getting greater.

The brands have to stubbornly make inventory adjustments, and try to stabilize the price of milk powder area through the internal code technology. , Continuously pressing price promotion.

Borrowing the scene of the young people who borrowed the Snow Ball Hundred People Research Group@: There are multiple dealers in the same area, and there are multiple dealers in the same system. In the same maternal and infant system, consumers will have different activity solutions when buying the same products in different stores.

There are too many differences between the factory price and the retail price. Manufacturers, distributors, and stores must make money. Consumers want to save money. Due to channel differentiation, it is easy to change the goods and become active. Due to the evolution of logistics transaction cost.

It can be said that the phenomenon of inventory hoarding, sales, and channeling cannot be cured. In addition to the intensification of external factors such as the decline in macro birth rate, the essence is the problem of the channel circulation mechanism of the entire industry. Moreover, not only flying cranes, almost all domestic milk powder brands have similar prices. For example, Royal Section 1, A system sells 416/can, B systems sell 396/can, but the C system can be reduced to 290/can.

The domestic milk powder industry has been raising for a long time, but this chaos is more lethal for the flying cranes that rely on offline activities to promote the drainage. Delivery rolls, gifts without any thresholds, such as skateboarding worth two or two hundred, trial -loaded milk powder worth more than 200, large barrel laundry fluids and large -scale babies wet towels ... A offline event, customers took gifts Slipped the baby, bought milk powder for free or at a low price.

Holding various offline activity drainage is the most commendable place in Feihe's marketing system, and it is also the hotbed of the hidden danger in Feihe. Excessive relying on advertising and new activities, customers' loyalty is not high. Coupled with the limited consumption period of infants and young children, enterprises need to continuously attract new customers and continue to operate competitions and start seminars.

Last year alone, Feihe held a seminar on the opposite side of more than 1 million scenes, of which more than 21,000 lines on the opposite side and 998,000 lines below the seminar, and the number of new customers obtained more than 2.266 million.

The wealthy Feihe once had the pride that could not be matched with peers. However, in the case of input and output was not proportional, Feihe also maintained a marketing cost of more than ten times higher than R & D, and I am afraid it would be counterproductive.

Realistic products cannot keep up with consumers' minds. For enterprises, the most taboo is to fall into the decline in revenue -reduction in cost investment -price war -decrease in operating income Fierce price war -a vicious cycle with less operating income.

For consumers, in the end, it can only be "wool on the sheep". Enterprises will offset sales costs of over 21.6 billion through prices.

Third, the domestic milk powder turning over is not easy to fight

The domestic milk powder brand after being poisoned by the "melamine" incident has lost its market voice in recent years. Although Feihe was not within the list of poisonous milk powder, it also sat in the cold bench for nearly ten years. It was not until the company changed its brand positioning from consistently good milk powder to "more suitable for Chinese baby constitution" in 2017.

The high -end products and the low -line market are two -pronged, and the public relations communication strategies are pushed strongly. Feihe once became the brand with the number one sales volume in the Chinese baby milk powder market.

However, it is also due to the continuous spike of revenue growth. Feihe has been shorted by GMT and Blue ORCA in just one year. Consumers are gradually realizing that milk powder should not be so expensive. The theory of constitution is also a pseudo -proposition.

Research on 7 different countries of different countries showed that the breast milk components between different races are relatively consistent. If human babies drink about milk with almost nutritional components, does this mean that huge sums of money research, it is not significant to launch a new milk powder suitable for Chinese babies? The "recipe of who is more suitable for Chinese babies" contest launched by Feihe lost the meaning of competition.

Although only Feihe realizes the freedom of milk iron protein, in a homogeneous competitive environment, it is not ruled out that the possibility of other brands embraced a share of a share, which is visible for flying cranes that rely on infant formula milk powder. The pressure, and it is not solved by spending money to make new products.

In order to get rid of the performance dilemma, Feihe hopes to get the second growth curve. For example, the adult milk powder is added. From the data point of view, the income of Feihe's adult milk powder in 2021 is about 700 million, the growth rate of 30%is not bad, but the problem is that the problem is that Adult milk powder does not have the characteristics of high gross interest rates for infant milk powder. In addition, the competition for companies such as Nestlé, Yili, Mengniu and other companies has already begun. Now they are also struggling in the balance of interests of all parties.

Looking at the entire milk powder industry, the two -year -old stranded price war has intensified, especially the internal consumption and confrontation between leading enterprises make the market order more chaotic. It is not simple to win this battle battle for domestic milk powder companies. To strengthen basic nutrition research and development and brand shaping capabilities.

Participants of the entire industry chain should be as clear as possible, and for the brand, the dealer's tasks are truly stipulated in accordance with the actual needs of the market. To survive, we must also break away from the pursuit of short -term interests, and promote the chain and service of maternal and infant shops from the perspective of professional nutrition.

There is no winner in vicious competition. Song Liang, a senior analyst in the industry, said in an interview that in the process of transformation from traditional retail to the modern service industry, third -tier and fourth -tier cities and stores in some prefectures are giving unified and cooperation to maximize marginal income in a region to achieve the maximum marginal income. The reduction of marginal costs is the right way.

The so -called "establishing a good reputation takes 20 years, and it destroys it, five minutes is enough." It is imperative to build a good price system in the stock market in the stock market.

Milk powder is not easy to identify as information asymmetric products. After the melamine incident, it wants to reverse the impression of domestic people's impression of domestic milk powder. Landlord.

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