Now only web3.0 this sickle can be cut to leeks

Web3.0 is one of the hottest topics discussed at the moment. Its ultimate goal is to break all central platforms. However, there are many people who cut the leek under the banner of Web3.0, and they are even reluctant to believe in the spirit of web3.0. The author of this article analyzes this, hoping to help you.

In the past three years, in the domestic first -level market, there have been three concepts of hot and popular institutions, or in accordance with fashionable claims: "circuit":

Hard technology, including semiconductor, artificial intelligence, new energy, drone, etc. Offline consumption, including milk tea shops, cafes, taverns, and even script killing. Web3.0, including but not limited to the "Yuan Universe". Among the above three tracks, Hard Technology was established in 2019, and it continued to heat up in 2020-21. At the same time, it attracted the favor of the "National Team", the RMB Fund and the USD Fund. rare. However, the investment scale of hard technology is too large, and the cycle of profitability formed is too long. Among them, the slightly reliable segment industry has long been filled. After the listing of Kuangxin Technology and Shangtang Technology can only be performed in Hong Kong stocks, the ebb trends of hard technology in the first -level market have been relatively obvious.

Offline consumption rose in the second half of 2020, and quickly reached its peak in 2021, creating a lot of myths with a valuation of hundreds of millions of single stores and tens of billions of brands. Unfortunately, people are not as good as the world. In 2022, the "static management" of this one -time "static management" caused most of the consumption scenarios to hurt the vitality. The Internet giant, the largest investor in offline consumption, has also fallen into its own difficulty, and can only sit down at the valuation collapse.

At the same time, there are still some "secondary hot tracks" with a slightly low degree of attention and a longer duration, such as games to sea, tide, and silver -haired economy. The rise of them is often dates back to 2018, and it is no stranger to investors in the first -level market or secondary market. However, they did not escape the capital ebb of 2022. Except for a few companies that could achieve self -sufficient cash flow, the rest were all life.

A week ago, I discussed the current situation with a group of friends who are still starting a business (all the assaults). Everyone agrees: At this moment, the early entrepreneurial projects that can be successfully funded, most of them are web3.0, or at least at least To play the banner of web3.0; however, this does not mean that web3.0 will definitely have a bright future. According to the original words of an entrepreneur friend:

"Many web3.0 entrepreneurs have not expected the business model to be established from the beginning, but focused on the use of the current air outlet to cut investors' chives. And investors also know this, not only do not oppose, but also hope to be with Entrepreneurs unite to cut off a person's leeks. Many popular tracks are drumming games, but it is very rare for everyone to actively cooperate with the drumming flowers from the beginning. "

From my personal experience, this is indeed the case. In the past three months, a dozen WeChat friends once said to me, "We have a business plan, can we help to see and do potential investors?"

There is no doubt that these business plans are all web3.0, without exception. About 80%of them are digital collections (NFT), and the rest include virtual idols, VR movies, online script kills, and so on. The project planner also knows how difficult it is to financing in the current environment, so we deliberately emphasized: "We adopt new types of decentralized financing, and buying digital collections is also a means of investment. Invest in hundreds of yuan. "

Now there are not many people who are willing to take out dozens or hundreds of yuan to try. Most people will choose to buy lottery tickets, and the cost performance may be higher. Of course, 5%of the project party is serious, but this does not change the reality of 95%of the project party to cut leeks. Thousands of "Web3.0 Business Plan" spread everywhere in the WeChat group, and a large part of them may never be downloaded.

Specifically, those "digital collection projects" under the banner of web3.0 can be subdivided into the following types:

With my own IP, or acting with popular IPs, facing millions of fans, distributed popular digital collections. This situation is very rare, because such projects will not lack money. Relying on a general and unobtrusive literary work, digital collections are specifically released. If you think this behavior is not reliable, the other party will use the "boring ape" to refute you, and firmly claims to be the next "boring ape". It is self -proclaimed that the secondary market transaction (currently the domestic order is prohibited), which can be made around the digital collection, because the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has proposed the "exploring NFT transactions" a while ago. Obviously, this exploration may be deadlocked for ten or twenty years, and even without illness. Doing digital collection tools and support environments, involving VR/AR, virtual idols, game engines and other technologies. In this field, there may be some new things, and it can also be stained with "hard technology". In the current environment, this category can be obtained. Don't get me wrong, I believe the future of web3.0. I believe that under the blessing of blockchain, VR/AR technology, and decentralization (DAO), humans will eventually enter the "Yuan Universe" one day. Recently, we often see some science fiction writers who oppose the "reality of the stars" with "Yuan Universe" and believe that humans must explore real spaces instead of indulging in the virtual world -my point of view is exactly the opposite Essence First of all, there will be no two choices of "stars and sea and Yuan universe"; second, if there are two choices, then the victory must be the Yuan universe, which will not be transferred by the will of people. Since the birth of the Internet, the contradiction between the "platform/channel party" and the "product/content party" has not stopped. In the era of the mobile Internet, the platform has occupied an absolute advantage, and is constantly invading the content of the content. As a result, all entrepreneurs want to be the platform by themselves, and all investors want to invest on the mainstream platforms in the future. The power of the platform is even strong enough to make the regulatory departments of all countries jealous. However, if web3.0 is really established (in my opinion, this issue does not need to be discussed, it must be established), it means that the competition between the platform and the content party will have a permanent ending. The latter will win.

In the classical era and medieval era of human civilization, the nomadic/fishing and hunting people occupied the opportunity most of the time in the competition with the settlement nation. Even if the latter win occasionally, it is not enough to completely control the former, and it can only allow the former to not invade for the time being; when the former wins, it can trample on the latter unscrupulously, so that the latter can completely bow to the minister. In the 13th century, the Mongolian nomadic empires conquered most of the known world; in the 17th century, Muga's nomadic empire and the fishing and hunting empire of the Qing Dynasty conquered the two most east land in the East, and the semi -nomads of the Ottoman Turkish Empire were still violating The core area of ​​Europe. If our historical textbooks only include the history before the 18th century, we will come to the wrong conclusion of "the settlement of the settled nation in front of the horse back nation".

The reason why the above conclusions were wrong was because the two industrial revolutions broke out in the 18th to 19th century-the population advantage and knowledge advantage of settlement nations, and finally surpassed the military advantages of nomadic/fishing and hunting peoples. The scale of the cities that settled in the nation is getting larger and larger, which can melt ore and coal from all directions, creating terrible re -guns, Mark Qin and Gatlin. Before the birth of the Gatling machine gun, the horseback nation was the most terrible conqueror of the Eurasian mainland; after the popularity of the Gatling machine gun, they became good actors who can sing and dance.

The same is true of the web3.0 revolution we are currently experiencing. In this revolution, we also cut the leeks with the thinking of the mobile Internet, just like in the industrial revolution to armed nomadic nomads with Gatling machine guns. Whenever I see someone claiming to be a "web3.0 platform", I can't help but can't help but the ultimate goal of web3.0 is to break all central platforms. Many people who are cutting the chives under the banner of Web3.0 are even unwilling to believe the spirit of web3.0, which is the one that disappoints me the most.

From this perspective, the business that is most in line with the spirit of Web3.0 is very simple, which is the ancient content business and product business. Do it well, make good products, and make high -quality things, that's all. In the era of the mobile Internet, investors will be afraid that you will be squeezed by the platform, plagiarized or cut leeks; in the web3.0 era, the above worry will disappear most of them. If you can directly contact the end users and enjoy most of your own products, what's the reason why you do not make good products? (Unless you lack the ability, then you should not do anything.)

I can see that many people do not believe in the above judgment. They always do not believe that people who do content and products can take away most of the cakes, and the "traffic thinking" and "platform thinking" developed in the mobile Internet era will eventually disappear, although this process will take a long time. This is normal, and the times will prove who is correct. Before the nomadic cavalry saw the muzzle of the black hole of the Mark Qin machine gun, they always thought that their conquest would continue to the land of the land, rather than the hunting display in the museum.

Source public account: Internet monsters, observers and researchers of the Internet industry.

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