The lithium battery giant expands rapidly, the industry is intensified, and the side effects are forced out

In the Ningde era, the front foot was just throwing 50.7 billion to build a factory in the sea, and Mercedes -Benz may become the first largest customer in Hungary in Hungary.

In July, the leading companies of Lithium Energy of Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yimei Energy have successively announced the production capacity expansion plan. Under the guidance of the "double carbon" goal, the application scenarios of lithium batteries in energy storage have continued to expand After holding hands with car companies, the charging piles, parking lots, and vehicle batteries continued to heat up, causing lithium battery capacity to start a large scale.

Even the vehicle company has extended the tentacles to the upstream layout of raw material resources. In the field of power battery, the layout of raw materials can be controlled, which can obtain cost advantages to a certain extent, and the cost determines the success or failure.

01. Who is the winner of "upstream"?

In the industrial chain of the lithium battery, no company is not going upstream. Not only is it going to go, but also to go fast, find the right running partner.

Take the car company, for example, it is unrealistic to be busy building a car without extending the industrial chain. They seized the air outlet of new energy vehicles, but once they experience chip shortages and battery shortcomings, they will become upstream positive and negative electrode materials. , Electrolytic, lithium ore and other raw material companies. "Workers".

BYD, the leader of domestic new energy vehicles, announced on August 19th that it would build a comprehensive development and utilization production base project such as 30GWH power batteries and 100,000 tons of battery -class lithium carbonate. Essence

At the beginning of this year, BYD won the mining right of 80,000 tons of lithium ore in the bid for intelligence. In June, he found 6 lithium mines in Africa. On the same day, GCLEngo also announced the expansion of production capacity.

Seeing the bonus, the layman also made a cross -border lithium battery: the environmental giant Weiming Environmental Investment 19.1 billion to develop new lithium battery projects; in the future, 70%of the shares of the two lithium battery companies will achieve industrial coordination and lay out the new energy industry.

Of course, it is not easy to divide it. Real Estate Songdu shares have been cross -border lithium batteries, and they were unilaterally announced a few days ago because the delivery day did not perform the contract and no sincerity. Delayed project advancement.

To say that the highest proportion of lithium batteries is the positive pole material, which accounts for about 40%of the cost of lithium battery cells. Therefore, there are many participants. Shanshan shares are one of the most representative players in the upstream.

In the Ningde era, the middle reaches is mainly responsible for production batteries. The same in the middle reaches Paineng Technology and Sunshine Energy are mainly responsible for developing software. However, it is not impossible for positive players like downstream BYD to enter the midstream.

Therefore, there are two ways to expand in the lithium battery industry chain, one is the horizontal expansion of upstream enterprises, and the other is the upstream enterprise expansion upward.

Even by factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices and unfavorable logistics transportation, my country still has achieved rapid growth in the scale of the new energy industry. At present, my country has become the world's largest lithium battery consumer market for 5 consecutive years, accounting for about 60%of the global market. Lithium battery technology will continue to be led by China.

According to the data of Sky Eye Inspection, as of July 2022, the output of lithium -ion batteries in my country in the first half of the year exceeded 2810GWh, a year -on -year increase of 150 %%. 428.

In addition, the industry scale of my country's new energy vehicles was growing in 2022, and the total output scale reached 5.627 million units, an increase of 71.7%year -on -year. At this stage, the energy density of the three yuan miles used by electric vehicles is generally around 160Wh/KG. Major car companies have begun to study how to make production costs lower and higher endurance.

At present, the world's largest lithium metal battery capacity is 107AH and weighs 0.982kg. It is made by electric vehicle hybrid lithium metal battery manufacturers Solid Energy System. Energy density is also improved.

Some experts said that "the future decision to determine the value of new energy electric vehicles is the intelligent system, not lithium battery." But it is the battery revolution set off by lithium batteries to promote the entire automotive revolution. It is the heart of new energy vehicles and the energy carrier of smart cars.

The exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax policies that have been extended twice and expired at the end of this year have finally landed recently, and will be postponed to the land next year. The estimated tax exemption will reach 100 billion yuan.

In the three favorable state of strong support, technological achievements, and the current market is not saturated, it is difficult for lithium battery to become a new air outlet. As the industry matures, lithium batteries must also face the sorrow of overcapacity.

02. The side effects of fast expansion

In fact, the shipment of lithium battery in my country is far greater than the installation volume, and "overcurrent" has always existed.

Since 2015, the utilization rate of my country's power lithium battery batteries has continued to decline; in 2018, my country's power lithium battery shipments reached 65GWh or more, excess inventory; in 2020, the output of large and medium -sized lithium batteries such as Ningde Times, BYD, etc. More than 3 times the amount.

Large -scale mass production will affect the speed of innovation, which is a nightmare for each industry.

Taking my country's display industry as an example, the normal range of enterprise capacity utilization rate is 79%-85%, that is, more than 85%is defined as insufficient production capacity, and less than 79%is defined as overcapacity. However, the average utilization rate of downstream capacity in the photovoltaic industry in the past 10 years is only 50.50%, 60.41%in the middle reaches, and 54.24%upstream ... In this regard, Wang Dongsheng, chairman of the LCD Branch of the China Optical Optical Electronics Industry Association, said: China Show the industry needs needs Slow down the investment rhythm of new factories, invest in technological innovation and application innovation, and invest in the construction and collaborative innovation of upstream and downstream ecological chains, create opportunities for sustainable development, and jointly promote the healthy and stable and sustainable development of the industry.

Compared with the photovoltaic industry, the current lithium battery is more "more, scattered, and chaotic", which does not reach the international leading level, and small and medium -sized companies are still trapped in large -scale dilemma, accelerating the elimination of potential companies.

The survival of the fittest is the only way for the industry to mature, but the overheating investment will bring negative effects such as blindly following investment and financing. The impact will gradually become the past.

Earlier, it is said that car companies and lithium battery companies have successfully held hands, and new energy vehicles have completely entered a market -oriented stage. This is the rigorous management of carbon emissions in global cars, forcing automobiles to accelerate electrifying transformation, and technological progress has also promoted the improvement of the battery life and charging of automobile products.

At that time, the diversified development of lithium battery materials became inevitable, and combined with the performance characteristics of different materials for technological development to make up for existing material defects, it will be the main development direction of lithium batteries.

In the field of power, solid state will realize commercialization in the future; the consumer field will develop fast charging and long battery life; the field of electric bicycles will replace lead acids to become mainstream technology; reducing costs in the field of energy storage and high requirements for the life of products Essence

A large output in the short term is not conducive to the development of the industry. Focusing on technological innovation is the king.

Jobs' excellent innovation ability made him highly sought after. He mentioned in an interview with the "Wiring" magazine in 1994: "Innovation is to connect the original things", such as the touch, storage, and camera of Apple products , All in the existing product supremacy, integrating different technologies to complete.

In other words, the vast majority of innovation is to re -combine the original elements and find new uses. New energy electric vehicles are a combination of batteries and automatic vehicles, and electric vehicles are not new products. They have been available 100 years ago, and even earlier than fuel vehicles.

According to historical records, the Scottish businessman Robert Anderson has created the world's first electric vehicle as early as 1830, and there are also "battery charging stations" that are exactly the same as charging piles.

If it were not for the improvement of oil mining and refining technology, fuel vehicles would not rise, and electric vehicles would not "die" in that era. Can't keep up with the dividend, and the lithium battery will not hold hands with car companies, so the market has changed.

According to the statistics of the Tiange Think Tank Policy Gathering Search Platform, since 2016 to so far, the state has issued 381 policy data on the lithium battery industry. Lithium batteries have entered a period of gold. This is a good era of the lithium battery industry, and it is also the most important part of the new energy revolution.

refer to:

Suining Index Interpretation 3: The development of the lithium battery industry in my country has shown three major trends -Counsel

The impact and processing method of the output of the lithium -ion battery industry -LARGE

"Ning Wang" and "Di Wang" led, lithium battery leaders are 100 billion yuan expansion -Sina Finance

Lithium battery production can expand the battle, a war of "planning" in advance -Alpha Factory

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