This year is the coolest year in the next ten years?The Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences made a specifically explanation

This year is the coolest year in the next ten years?

On August 22, a topic named#8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 The topic of the year in the next 10 years has received widespread attention from netizens. The topic reading has reached 527,000. Netizens are worried about high temperature weather in the future.

The picture shows some topics of some media released. Picture source: Weibo screenshot

In this regard, the Chinese Academy of Sciences stated that the statement solved my paper, which did not involve temperature prediction issues in the next 10 years.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences The Institute of Atmospheric Physics

On the evening of the 22nd,@2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 "This year is the coolest year in the next 10 years". It is the interpretation of the original meaning of the paper. The full text is as follows:

Our scholar published in 2020 in "Nature-Communication" entitled "Emerurs Constrains on Future Projects of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High". It focuses on the high temperature room gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is concerned. By 2100, the possible changes in the high -pressure high -pressure northwest Pacific subtropical. The work of this paper is not related to the occurrence and prediction of extreme high temperature events in the near future.

To estimate the long -term climate change at the end of this century, the climate model must be used, but due to the level of science and technology development, the current model results still have uncertainty.

In terms of climatic estimation, it reflects the differences in the response of different modes to the same greenhouse gas forced, such as the 35 climate model of the "Fifth International Coupling Model Comparison Plan" (CMIP5). As a result, each other is very different.

In order to reduce this uncertainty and give more accurate long -term change estimates, this paper uses a method internationally called "Emerurs Constraint". The reliable physical connection between the current climate state and the future state uses the current rich observation data to make a correction of the deviation of the original estimated results of the climate model.

In summary, this paper does not involve the temperature prediction of temperature in the next 10 years, nor does it propose, nor does it support the conclusion that "this year is the coolest year in the next 10 years". The method of the Weibo public account is the interpretation of the original intention of the thesis, which is hereby explained.

(China Xiaokang.com Comprehensive Beiqing.com, Shangguan News)

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