When did the shipments of smartphones fall back seven years ago, when will the consumer electronics "downturn market" reverse?

On August 19, Xiaomi Group (HK: 1810) released the second quarter financial report as of June 30, 2022. The financial report shows that the revenue of the smartphone branch has decreased from 59.1 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2021 to 28.5%to 42.3 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2022. Xiaomi said it was mainly due to the reduction of smartphone shipments.

According to the data released by China Xintong Institute, in the first half of this year, domestic smartphone shipments were 134 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 21.7%. The research agency Cinno said the data set the worst score in the domestic smartphone market since 2015.

The downturn of consumer electronics also drags the performance of upstream supply chain manufacturers such as mobile phone chips. According to the CCTV Finance Channel previously reported, because mobile phone manufacturers have reduced their shipments, they have cut orders to upstream chip manufacturers. IDC believes that the global smartphone shipments will be attenuated by 3.5%to 1.31 billion units in 2022.

The demand for mobile phone consumption is weak

Affected by factors such as epidemic, economic weakness, and inflation, in the first half of 2022, China's smartphone market set the worst semi -annual sales result since 2015.

In the latest financial report released by Xiaomi, Xiaomi smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2022 were 39.1 million units, a decrease of 26.2%of 52.9 million units in the second quarter of 2021. In addition to Xiaomi, a number of mobile phone manufacturers also said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that the sales of the Chinese market this year are expected to be less than 300 million units.

Xu Qi, Vice President of Realme and President of China, previously said that the overall sales target of about 10%-20%of Realme this year. In the latest statement, Realme will shrink a 35%product line in product layout.

Xu Qi told reporters that peripheral factors such as the global epidemic have made the mobile phone market greatly challenged. This year, the overall mobile phone market (shipment volume) must be less than 300 million units, and it takes at least 2 to 300 million units to return to 300 million units. From the second half of this year to next year, there will be a process of gradually recovering the mobile phone market. But warming does not mean that the mobile phone market returns a very lush situation a few years ago, but a bit steady.

Li Jie, President of OnePlus China, told reporters that it is now being gradually paved and adjusted to product layout and product positioning. "The cycle of the mobile phone user changing machine is longer, and the budget is shrinking, so the terminal price must be competitive."

Due to the downturn in the terminal market, it also affects the supply of upstream chip manufacturers.

According to Cinno Research data, the consumer electronics market is still sluggish. In terms of inventory, in the first quarter of 2022, the number of domestic consumer electronic chip inventory increased to 201 days. The market de -inventory will be lower than the previous.

Cinno Research said that in the first half of 2022, Qualcomm's inventory weeks increased to 85 days, a year -on -year increase of about 11 days. Samsung also increased inventory and slowdown in shipments. In terms of chip prices, Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 , From TSMC OEM, using the 4nm process process, will appear in the fourth quarter of this year. Therefore, the previous generation of chips will face price reductions. Especially now, the inventory water level is high. Samsung Flash/DRAM also maintains a high level of inventory. It is expected The demand is still conservative, and its price continues to bottom.

Grand factory IC inventory pull alert

In July 2022, the main product shipment data released by the head manufacturer of the optical industry Shunyu Optical Technology (HK02382) showed that in terms of optical parts, the company's mobile phone lens shipments in July were 89.117 million, a year -on -year decrease of 14.9%; In terms of optical products, the shipping module of mobile phone camera was 36.793 million, a year -on -year decrease of 33.5%.

In the recently released financial report, Qualcomm and Samsung also expressed their views on future market trends.

Qualcomm CEO An Meng said after the financial report was released that the current decline in low -cost mobile phones has declined most obvious. Qualcomm's chips are mainly used for high -end mobile phones, including mobile phones produced by Samsung Electronics and Apple. These mobile phones have greater market elasticity. It is expected that the weakness of smartphone chips in the fourth quarter will continue to be in the low -end mobile phone market.

HAN Jinman, executive vice president of Samsung Electronic Semiconductor Business, said that due to the weakened demand for electronic consumer products such as mobile phones at the macro level, (storage chip) DRAM and NAND shipments are lower than expected. The demand for mobile and PC chips is expected to continue to cool down, which will affect the needs of the storage chip.

Cinno Research analysis believes that the market mainly based on consumer electronics is still the main theme of the entire industry in the second half of the year.

According to the above -mentioned institutional data, in the second quarter of 2022, the domestic smartphone SOC terminal shipment decreased by about 20%year -on -year, and the domestic TV market sales decreased by about 11%year -on -year, which expanded by about 6 and 2 respectively from the year -on -year decrease in the first quarter. At a percentage point, the consumer electronics market is still in a downturn.

CIC Burning Consulting Director Chai Daixuan told the First Financial Reporter that the shipments of PCs (including desktops, laptops and workstations) in the Chinese market in the first quarter of 2022 were about 11.7 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 1%. Due to the continuous weakness of terminal demand, the sales of smartphones have declined. In the case of supply, chip manufacturers will not focus on expanding production capacity, but to destroy inventory to prevent inventory backlog. "In the second half of the year, there will be recovery from the demand side, which may continue to increase with a small degree, but it takes time to transmit a slightly increasing terminal market to be transmitted to the upstream. Chip manufacturers are still in the stage of consumption inventory. From the supply side, upstream, upstream, upstream The supply and demand relationship of the component has eased. "Chai Daixuan told reporters that chips involving advanced processes, such as 4 nanometers and 5 nanometers are still in a shortage state, and the high -end market will achieve corresponding higher growth. The chip will continue to reduce the price, coupled with the cost advantage of domestic chip manufacturers, the increase in pressure faced by semiconductor manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Samsung may trigger the price war between manufacturers, and the sluggishness of this price may be difficult in the short term in the short term. A reversal.

Facing the sluggish market, Li Jie said that it will still not change the market goals set at the beginning of the year. "Last year, the average price of OnePlus products was around 4,000 yuan, and domestic sales reached 2 million units. However, the main sales price range of the market is 2,000 to 4,000 yuan. This year has been deployed one after another. These new layouts contain huge market opportunities, which will bring an increase to OnePlus. "

Xu Qi said that in addition to the Chinese market, more energy will be placed in overseas markets. "The global market mainly attaches 250 ~ 400 US dollars. In terms of market strategy, the 2+15 market base model is adopted, that is, to consolidate the 2 million markets (Chinese markets and Indian markets), it is deployed in Southeast Asia and Europe. Millions of magnitude. "

But as a whole, the consumer electronics downturn dominated by mobile phones is still continuing, and inventory digestion still requires a certain cycle.

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