Tear off the free competitive mask and curb the development of Chinese technology. How many "devil" is hidden in the US "chip bill"?

[Global Times Report Reporter Yuan Jirong] In order to suppress and curb the rise of China's technology and maintain the US hegemony, Washington has become more and more frequent to the core of the digital economy -the chip field. From August 15th, the US Department of Commerce implemented export control on EDA software, known as the "mother of the chip". Earlier, the United States had issued the "2022 Chip and Science and Technology Act" (hereinafter referred to as the "Chip Act") on July 28. The bill aims to cut off the technology and equipment and materials of the advanced process of supplying chips to China. It will return to the United States through subsidies to accelerate the chip industry. The Chinese chip industry is connected to the world to reshape the global chip industry chain supply chain pattern. Obviously, this is the wishful plan of the United States, so how many "devil" is hidden in the "chip bill" in the United States? Our reporter conducted an interview and investigation.

Where is the five sub -chains, where are Sino -US companies occupy?

The main contents of the "chip bill" in the United States include three items: one is to provide $ 52.7 billion in funding support to the semiconductor industry; the other is to provide enterprises with a scale of 25%of US $ 24 billion in investment tax credits; the third is to allocate about US $ 200 billion Focus on supporting cutting -edge technology such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and quantum computing. The United States tries to attract companies to build factories in the United States, prompting advanced processes (below 28 nanometer) chip manufacturing to concentrate to the United States, fight against China's challenges in the semiconductor field, and safeguard the US scientific and technological hegemony. Industry data show that in 1990, the United States accounted for 37%of the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, and the proportion of 2020 fell to 12%.

In the relevant instructions issued by the White House, the purpose of the "chip bill" includes reducing costs, creating employment, strengthening the supply chain, etc., and competing with China. To this end, the bill requires the establishment of four funds: "American Chip Fund" a total of $ 50 billion, of which 39 billion U.S. dollars are used to encourage chip production, $ 11 billion for subsidized chip development; The production of key chips related to national security is allocated from 2022 to 2026. The US chip labor and education fund "" total is 200 million US dollars to cultivate talents in semiconductor industry.

As the world's largest chip market, China consumes about 3/4 chips around the world. But in the global chip industry chain, China is in the middle and lower reaches. The chip industry has its unique internal structure and industrial characteristics, and its industrial chain is divided into five sub -chains. The first is design. The world's largest chip design company is the British ARM. The American EDA lives in the monopoly position of software design. Huawei Hisilicon's design capabilities can reach 7 nanometers. The second is manufacturing, including finished products and semi -finished products. Among them, semi -finished products generally refer to wafers, and high -purity wafers are basically monopolized by Japanese companies; chip finished products are made on the basis of wafers, and SMIC production is currently the fifth global. The third is the packaging test, which basically belongs to the labor -intensive type. The gap between China and international China in this industry is not large. The fourth is the production of equipment. The most precise EUV lithography machine is Asmore, the Netherlands, and is currently the only company that can provide 7 -nanometer lithography machine. The equipment vendors who produce wafers are mainly in Japan, and Mitsubishi, Sony and other companies dominate. Shanghai Microelectronics has been able to produce 28 -nanometer chips. The fifth is the auxiliary material. Including photoresist, mask version, target, packaging substrate, etc., these materials are still facing bottlenecks.

Geng Bo, deputy secretary -general of the third -generation semiconductor industry technology innovation strategy alliance, told the Global Times reporter that "the key patent layout of advanced process technology, some key raw materials, equipment and component consumables is not perfect." China's integrated circuit industry currently has a fairly severe trade deficit, and some high -end chips cannot be completely self -sufficient. As an example, the memory chip is half of the global market, South Korea accounts for about 25%, Japan accounts for 10%, Europe accounts for 8%, China accounts for 3%.

The killing recruitment is mainly in the manufacturing link

Recently, the well -known semiconductor research institution IC INSIGHTS released a report that the size of the chip consumed by China in 2021 was about 186.5 billion US dollars, but the chip manufactured in mainland China was only $ 31.2 billion, accounting for only 16.7%. The "chip bill" in the United States mainly focuses on the following aspects, intending to stifle the Chinese chip industry at the beginning.

First, block the technology and equipment and materials below 28 nanometers in China. Han Xiaomin, general manager of Jiwei Consultation, told reporters that the limitation of the chip bill is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the continuous prohibition of supply chain resources such as advanced manufacturing related equipment and materials to Chinese companies to suppress Chinese enterprises in the field of advanced manufacturing Progress; Second, chip companies required to obtain chip bills must not invest in advanced processes in mainland China, and continue to cut the Chinese market and global supply system. Although the restrictions of the "Chip Act" are mainly from the manufacturing link, it will cooperate with other series of restrictions. For example, the EDA tools that have just been prohibited from GAA processes have recently been used to use it for Chinese companies; restricting American companies with equipment required to manufacture advanced chips to China; pressure on the Dutch government to prohibit Acemai from selling deep ultraviolet light engraving machines to China.

Secondly, through subsidy methods, companies that obtain US federal funds have been banned to significantly increase production chips in China in China for a period of 10 years. Companies that violate the ban or fail to amend the violation may need to refund the federal subsidy in full. According to the BBC, in the past, all American equipment manufacturers have received letters from the US Department of Commerce to inform them that they should not supply equipment for 14 nanometer or below chip manufacturing. At the latest financial report, the US chip equipment manufacturer Panlin Semiconductor Chairman and CEO Tim Achel said that the scope of the US technology export control of China will be further expanded to foundries below 14 nanometers. Before and after the signing of the "Chip Act", under the atmosphere of high pressure, a number of American semiconductor companies have announced that they will expand their investment in the local area. Micron announced on August 9 that it will invest $ 40 billion in the United States by 2030, and this operation will be supported by the "chip bill". Reuters reported on the 8th that Qualcomm had agreed to buy an additional $ 4.2 billion semiconductor chip worth $ 4.2 billion from the chip manufacturer's core, so that the total purchase volume by 2028 reached $ 7.4 billion.

Finally, to promote the establishment of the "Chip Quartet Alliance" to further limit the development of Chinese chips. This is the chip industry alliance in the United States, Japan and South Korea, and Taiwan, which is intended to monopolize the "chip bill" of the high -end chip industry to integrate the chip manufacturing of the American allies to the US local chip supply chain to eliminate competitors.

China's response strategy

Industry experts believe that in the short term, the "chip bill" involves high -end foundry and memory of advanced manufacturing processes on China. However, in the long run, domesticization in related fields is already a domestic industrial consensus, and the restrictions of the bill can only accelerate the advancement of this process. Geng Bo said that under the opportunity of the continuous expansion of production and the acceleration of domesticization in China, upstream semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials will be benefited. In view of the uncertainty of domestic macro policy blessings and international situations and supply chain security, China's semiconductor industry should do a good job of top -level design and overall layout, increase policy support, strengthen international cooperation outside the United States, make bigger and bigger and bigger, and make bigger and bigger. Strong head enterprises will increase the training of talents and disciplines in the industry. The industrial chain strives to establish a certain closed -loop supply capacity to prevent the emergence of "core tide".

At the same time, for the United States, it is even more difficult to reinvent the glory of the local chip industry with a paper "chip bill" that cannot reshape the glory of the local chip industry. Some industry experts have said that the global "chip shortage" this year has gradually been relieved, and chip production has even surplus, and many chips are sold at the price reduction. This means that the chip industry is at least not a very profitable industry at least. Market investors are also confirming this judgment. After the "Chip Act" was released, due to the decline in the demand for the industry's early warning market, the stock price of major US semiconductor companies fell.

Han Xiaomin said that the "chip bill" can attract leading companies to set up factories in the United States through subsidies to alleviate the strategic anxiety of the United States. But it is not optimistic that the United States has really become a advanced craft manufacturing base. Some experts believe that although China does not break through high -end chip manufacturing technology at present, it has a chip factory that accounts for half of the world's total. The "chip bill" in the United States will promote Chinese enterprises to break through technology. The American manufacturing industry is hollow and lacks talents, and the production capacity of independent chip cannot be formed in a short time. According to the estimates of Boston Consulting Company and other institutions, if the United States adopts a "technical decourse" policy, it may cause US semiconductor companies to lose 18%of global market share and 37%of revenue and reduce 15,000 to 40,000 highs. Skills work. This is tantamount to the subsidy of the salary of water to seduce the country's companies to stay away from the Chinese market.