Promoting high -quality development semiconductors such as manufacturing will have great development

Since 2022, uncertainties in the global economic uncertainty have increased, and the international and domestic situations are complex and changeable. How to grasp the certainty of uncertainty and seize investment opportunities have become a major problem that plagues investors. On August 9th, in order to insight into economic trends, change the pulse market, and help investors rationalize investment logic, Hengchang released the "Steady Growth Letter Future" - "Guidelines for Macroeconomic Outlook and Asset Allocation Strategy in the second half of 2022" (hereinafter referred to as : "Guidelines").

It is reported that "Guidelines" is the sixth consecutive release since its first release in 2018. With the growth of residents' wealth and asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets, led macroeconomic research, with asset allocation strategies as the core, and wealth management services. With the research level of specific investment targets, actively discover investment opportunities and provide investors with long -term stable value returns.

The Chinese economy is the "superior student" of the global economy

The "Guidelines" first reviewed the global macroeconomic trend and the performance of the capital market in the first half of 2022, focusing on the opportunities and challenges faced by major economies in the world, and the future direction of the capital market.

Dr. Zong Liang, chief researcher of Bank of China, senior researcher of the World Financial Forum, member of the Strategic Consultation Committee of the National Manufacturing Power, and Dr. Zong Liang, an academic consultant of Hengchang Macroeconomic Research Office, conducted an authoritative interpretation of the Guidelines. Dr. Zong Liang pointed out that with the rise of China's economy in the second half of the year, the expected return of domestic stock bond assets may better be better than overseas markets, and the profit and loss ratio of domestic equity assets may be better than the revenue assets.

In the second half of 2022, affected by global inflation over expectations, the Ukrainian crisis and the Fed's accelerated monetary policy tightening, the global economic growth fell. In June 2022, the World Bank reduced the global economic growth expectations in 2022 to 2.9%. It is worth noting that in April 2022, the World Bank has reduced the expected global economic growth in 2022 from 4.1%in January to 3.2%.

Although the global economic downlink risk is relatively large, new marginal changes have occurred in structure. In the future, more positive factors will appear in China, and the United States and Europe will be plagued by more negative factors.

Dr. Zong Liang said in the release that in the second half of 2022, the US -Europe economy faced multiple risk factors challenges. First of all, inflation will still be at a high level, which will affect the economic recovery. Secondly, in order to curb high inflation, monetary policy will continue to tighten, causing the risk of economic recession to increase; again, the Ukraine crisis will continue to affect; finally, the stock market has a greater risk.

Dr. Zong Liang explained in the release that China's GDP increased by 4.8%year -on -year in the first quarter, and the start was generally good. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year. As the national epidemic has been effectively controlled, the Chinese economy has gradually recovered since June. Looking forward to the second half of the year, China's economic toughness is manifested, and more positive factors have appeared.

Compared with the US -Europe economy, in the second half of 2022, the positive factors of China's economy steady and good include: First, the stable growth policy and measures of the early stage will be concentrated in the second half of the year; second, the orderly recovery of the industrial chain and supply chain will be resumed. The economic subject will be continuously activated; the third is that the inflation is mild and controllable, and it will not be constrained by the stable growth policy; the fourth is that the macro policy will continue to be loose.

In general, China will continue to play its advantages, coordinate the epidemic and economic development, and actively take an active role in expanding needs. In the future, China's economic toughness is full, and the recovery process will lead the world.

Domestic stock bonds assets may be better than overseas

"Guidelines" pointed out that in the first half of 2022, under the background of global inflation pressure and tightening monetary policy of major economies, the global stock market fluctuated. In the second half of the year, factors such as rising global economic recession risks, accelerating the tightening of major economies of monetary, and changes in geopolitical situations will still profoundly affect the stock market. It is expected that the global stock market will still show a trend, and the US and European stock markets will still have a lot of decline pressure.

In the second half of 2022, the global interest rate center will rise further. The main currency authorities will also launch a plan to reduce the balance sheet. The rate of national debt yields will be raised, and the financing cost of economic entities will increase. It is estimated that the US dollar, euro, and pounds of Treasury bonds will increase rapidly.

In the first half of 2022, the price of commodities was relatively high. "Guidelines" pointed out that the commodities in the second half of the year will have differentiation and can pay attention to structural opportunities. Affected by the substantial impact of overseas supply, the prices of upstream resource products are relatively strong; affected by the fundamental fundamental aspects, the price of industrial products on the downstream demand is increasing. Therefore, in the second half of the year, energy and agricultural products are strong, and industrial products are weaker.

Hard technologies such as semiconductors will have great development

At present, China is accelerating the stage of high -quality development, which is more in line with the development prospects of innovation, efficient, energy conservation, and environmental protection. Capital is more popular. Private equity, as an investment intermediary that connects innovative SMEs and long -term investors, plays an important role in supporting scientific and technological innovation and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.

Most of the emerging industrial enterprises representing the high -quality development of the economy are start -ups and SMEs, and they are more inclined to obtain financing through private equity and provide a lot of high -quality assets for private equity. Dr. Zong Liang said that thanks to the continuous improvement of the ecology of the capital market and the development of emerging industrial enterprises, in the first half of 2022, China's private equity equity showed a stable development trend as a whole.

According to Wind data, in the first half of 2022, in the A -share first -level market, the amount of raising amount of science and technology board and GEM IPO accounted for 78%of the total market raised, of which 43%of the raised amount of science and technology boards; The proportion of raised amount is 35%. At the industry level, semiconductors, technical hardware and equipment, new materials, new energy, new energy, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and other industries representing the direction of emerging industries are arranged before. In this context, regarding the investment track, the "Guidelines" pointed out that in the future, the structural opportunities of new energy, hard technology, big health, and new consumption can be focused on.

Under the "dual carbon" target vision plan, in the first half of 2022, the development of China's new energy market represented by photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage, and lithium batteries was better. Especially new energy vehicles have obtained the capital market greatly in the capital market. Favorite. The "Guidelines" pointed out that the macro -level and industry -level policy continues, and the prosperity of the new energy market will continue to maintain a high level. The field of energy storage, green power, new energy -related infrastructure and other fields will become the real policy point.

China is transforming from a large manufacturing country to a strong manufacturing country and promoting the high -quality development of the manufacturing industry. The core is to develop motivation for scientific and technological innovation. "Guidelines" pointed out that hard technology represented by semiconductor, digital economy, and specialized specialty will achieve great development.

- END -