I am confident that it is the end of the mobile Internet

Author ｜ Ye Jing

Edit ｜ Sang Mingqiang

In 2021, Daily Youxian ran the market with the title of "Fresh E -commerce's first share". Prior to this, the company had accumulated 11 rounds of financing of more than 11 billion yuan. From breaking on the day of the distribution, to the speed of shutdown, only one year, 1 month, 3 days, the former star companies went to the building, leaving employees who could not wait for the salary, suppliers and suppliers who could not get the payment. Up to billions of debt.

I remember on the night of Nasdaq's listing, the founder Xu Zheng said that the community retail digitalization has reached the eve of the outbreak, but the daily freshness has not been dawn. Except for the felling market's confidence in the business of fresh e -commerce, We found that in recent years, the darlings of the first -level market in recent years have not been rare after the ebb to ebb.

In 2010, the online long video company Youku was the first to be listed in the United States. The former used the secondary market to solve the financing problem. In the case, players with different segmented tracks always tell the story of the same loss to change growth. It is difficult for the first -level market to integrate hot money. In order to solve the problem of funds, listing as the first share becomes the survival of the players crowded out. Export.

However, according to the "Baron Weekly", the average decline in the stock price of the first share in the 120 days after the list of 10 industries in 2020 was 13.37%; according to incomplete statistics, after the first listing of 2021, the average decline in half a year was close to 40. %; Since 2022, with the continuous deepening of the registration system, more than half of new stocks have been broken in GEM and science and technology boards, of which there are the first stocks in the industry.

Recently, the breakdown rate of new stocks has remained at a high level

Tuyuan Open source Securities Institute

The first -stock fast hand in the short video, the number of subscribers in front of the IPO even created a record of a securities firm platform. The market value once exceeded JD.com, Xiaomi and Baidu, but the highest point has fallen from 80%. In addition, sharing charging charging charging The pioneer corporate monster charging falls into the main business dilemma, the first fog core technology distance of electronic cigarettes has fallen by 97%. He has threatened to be the first bubble Matt in Disney to play in Disney. Now the market value has shrunk by more than 100 billion yuan, new tea Nai Xue, who was drinking the first share, was unable to speak, and it was getting farther and farther from Starbucks's goal.

In the past, we mentioned that the IPO was the most anticipated time for VCs. In the past, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Weilai and other projects brought at least 250 billion to 300 billion yuan in returns to Sequoia. But now, small and medium -sized enterprises are not only difficult for IPOs, but it is more difficult to make money by IPO. Between the first and secondary markets, the price gap given by the purchase price and the capital market has become lower. The estimates of many Chinese stocks before listing have overdrawn the expectations of the next ten years.

The gap between the information and returns between the enterprise and the investor seems to have fallen into a cycle that gradually lost its trust mechanism. The era of "closed eyes and new" is gone. Below, for players, there are many opportunities, but the probability of success is even less; for investors, even if most of the prospectus is beautiful, the first share of core technology and reliable business model is cutting leeks. Without the big bull market, thousands of times the price -earnings ratio will only make them more cautious.

The Internet is always keen to create new concepts, but I do n’t think about how to end. From frequent appearance to disappearance of the sale, the industry ’s first border cost of the Internet will make the Internet’ s marginal costs lower and lower, and it is more and more like pseudo -propositions. When asked what the necessary conditions for entrepreneurship were in the past, Xu Zheng thought for a moment, thinking that it was "the passion for the final situation", but now the traffic and hot money left to SMEs gradually narrowed, and the first stock of the new life in the future. Where will the story go, the story is still full of suspense.

01 The business is getting better and better, and it is more and more difficult to do

In a winter in 2017, the post -80s young man Cai Guangyuan just handled the official duty, but because his mobile phone was not turned off, he couldn't get back to home. At that time, the wave of sharing economy was turbulent, and the concepts of all things plus sharing have considerable imagination. As the last manager of Uber Shanghai, he decided to do a shared charging treasure project. The monster charging was born.

From around 2015 to shared the charging treasure, the following year ushered in a wave of investment and financing. Players from all walks of life were scrambled to enter the game. The monster later ranked up, the industry began to differentiate the echelon, leaving the pattern of "three electricity and one beast" on the head. The data showed that this year, a total of 20 shared charging treasure track financing occurred. Blood transfusion.

During the same period, the number of investment events of the shared cycling track also increased in 2017. The capital was mainly concentrated in the two head companies of the OFO small yellow car and Mobike. Bicycles, Goku bicycles, and small blue bicycles stopped operations. As Meituan acquired Mobike 3.7 billion U.S. dollars, Ant 1.89 billion yuan increased capital, and the overall situation of bicycle -sharing tracks gradually settled.

The shared charging treasure has won 11 cumulative 1.2 billion yuan financing in 40 days, which is equivalent to 5 times when the bike sharing in 2015 appeared. In the eyes of people at that time, no matter from production costs, depreciation of equipment, or operating costs and labor maintenance costs, shared charging treasures were a good business than shared bicycles.

At this time, we found that at this time we found that at this time, we found that the air outlet track of the Internet in recent years has been high to the rapids to the rapid battle. The barbaric play of the scale of money burning money now was the only law of the company's rapid occupation of the market at that time.

On April 1st last year, the monster charged was listed on the Nasdaq, and the raid was a small electricity that was doing listing coaching, becoming a "shared charging first share". That night, Cai Guangyuan and other companies such as high -level companies, Ali Chunxiao and other investment institutions, as well as investment representatives such as Goldman Sachs Group Tang Shaohua, as well as Chris Hao, chief representative of Nasdaq's China, jointly pressed the listing button. However, on the same day, search and street electricity were formally merged. The number of users after holding the group was estimated to exceed 360 million, breaking the first situation of the first stock market share, and the industry competition was fierce.

Monster charging equity structure and investment structure map source Oriental Securities

Combined with the "Research Report of the 2020 Sharing Charging Card Industry" and the monster charging prospectus, the revenue of shared charging is mainly divided into three parts: rental income, advertising revenue and other income. The source of the collection is very single. In fact, leasing business is compared to capital investment and rental efficiency. The former decided to expand the speed and layout density. Whoever said more money, but the second half is more efficient, which is not a variable controlled by capital investment.

Data show that from 2017 to 2020, the scale of shared charging treasure users rose from 80 million to 290 million, but the annual growth rate continued to decline, from 104.9%and 56.3%to 15.6%. On the one hand, the revenue single plus homogeneity intensified, and the shared charging treasure almost does not have any user stickiness or brand effect; on the other hand, the call COO Ren Mu said, some scenarios are high, and the merchants hope to make more money to make more money. , To have a large right to negotiate. So players had to choose to increase their lives while expanding their points.

Four years of establishment, the monster has completed multiple rounds of financing, and there are no shortage of institutions such as Ali, Gao Yan, Shunwei, SoftBank, Xiaomi, CMC and other institutions. From the establishment to the bell, it took only 4 years to charge the monster, but from the two to the stock price of 85%, it was only less than one year in the middle. That is the peak curse.

It has achieved continuous quarterly profit and breaking the sharing economy without making money. However, in the stage of competition, Monster charging in order to increase the entry rate, the marketing rates in 2019 and 2020 were 67.4%and 75.5%, respectively. Business and business developers. In 2021, the net loss of monsters was 125 million yuan. According to the financial report in the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue was 737.1 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 13%, and a loss of nearly 1 million in three months.

At the beginning of the listing, the monster charging was priced at $ 10, with a market value of $ 2.7 billion. As of now, the stock price of monster has fallen to $ 1.07, and the total market value has evaporated nearly 90%. The flow of traffic fell, and the income decreased sharply. From the direct -operated model to the proxy mode, it has become a solution to the industry to improve cash flow and control costs. However, the latter management difficulty and standardization are also a problem. More importantly, as the battery life of the mobile phone is getting longer, the battery capacity becomes larger, and the charging time is shortened. As an emergency but low -frequency product, shared charging treasure is not just needed.

Like many companies, in order to continue to grow, the monster charging starts the business diversified layout strategy. When the liquor is hot, it is a hot IP co -branded when playing on the fire. This second curve is somewhat sick.

02 Essence and pragmatism

"The future value of Guling's deep pupils is 100 billion or 500 billion US dollars?" In 2013, Xu Xiaoping and Shen Nanpeng had been in the valuation of Gali deep pupils in a meal. Finally, under the mediation of Feng Bo The middle number of 300 billion US dollars.

Under the introduction of Xu Xiaoping, He Budi and Niu Ren Zhao Yong met from Blackhawk, who resigned from Blackhawk. Like Jobs dug Pepsi President Skali that year, "He Budi and Zhao Yong could create a successful company separately, but they worked together and could create a great company." Xu Xiaoping said.

At that time, Shang Tang and Yun had not yet been established, and the disruptive innovation of AI new technology was full of imagination. At the beginning of its establishment, the star company received millions of angel round investment from Zhenge Fund and Ceyuan Venture Capital, and the following year, the tens of millions of dollars invested by Sequoia China investment. But since then, Galing's deep pupils have not had a financing record for three years. Until the second half of 2017, the C round from Oriental Netpi and Samsung Electronics was released in a low -key. By 2019 The valuation of the valuation exceeded 5 billion US dollars, which was far lower than the CV four dragons at that time.

"Technical Background" and "Scientific Research Great Cow" are the flashing points of the beginning of Ge Ling's deep pupils. Zhao Yong, influenced by the free and flat organizational management management of Silicon Valley, hopes to turn Guling's deep pupils into a utopian of technology. Making Friends, while going to various departments to play, see what can be solved. "He wanted to bring this Silicon Valley model into the deep pupils, and these have also become a puppet that grows upward.

In 2013, Zhao Yong's highly hoped physical retail industry was severely squeezed by e -commerce and O2O, and giants such as BAT have natural advantages in the smart retail industry. Data show that in 2012, the newly opened store speed of the top 100 companies in the chain was only 8%. Under pressure, retail customers have cut off the market budget of technological innovation. The biggest pupils have been done in the retail industry for 10 months. The biggest problem encountered is "the market is extremely pessimistic about physical retail." Later, the "Hao Mu Behavior Analyzer" launched by Guling's deep pupils aims to pass the computer vision through computer vision Technical analysis of consumer behavior. However, in the dense scenes of people in the square, they are unsatisfactory, and the basic people in the strong light environment are difficult; those who are packed on the bank ATM machine will be misjudged as "two people close"; Even curtain jitter will form a false alarm.

According to 36 氪 reports, in 2015, Li Qian, the market director of Geng Lingtong Pupil, applied for resignation and believed that there was a big problem with the company's products. Prior to this, some employees publicly issued a document pointed out that the academic Fan was too strong, and there were too many R & D departments. Researchers and engineers are seriously inadequate. "The feeling of meeting in the company is like a seminar in the university laboratory." From technology research and development to product sales, Zhao Yong overdo the breakthrough of technology, but ignored product thinking.

From 2018 to 2021, the net losses belonged to the owner of the parent company were 75 million yuan, 418 million yuan, 78 million yuan, and 69 million yuan, respectively. The cumulative losses in four years were about 640 million yuan. Rather than a company, it is more like a research institute. Scientists are pursuing the accuracy and breakthrough of data, but the market needs commercialization, productivity and practicality.

The net interest rate and net profit of the mother-in-law (2018-2021)

Tuyuan Huading Securities

"There is no problem with the technology cutting from technology, but if it is only empty, or the direction of technology aiming is far from the market, it is destined to fail ... I need a team to tell me what the market needs, how can I meet market demand to meet market demand . "Zhao Yong later reflected.

After that, the coaches, falling behind, and transformation have become the main theme of the deep pupils. From 3D visual perception, to mainstream "deep learning+face recognition", although the business tends to be mediocre, fortunately, from 2021, from 2021, from 2021 The IPO was launched in June of the year, and the application was approved by January the following year. On March 17, 2022, Geling's deep pupils listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a issuance price of 39.49 yuan, corresponding to the market value of about 7.3 billion yuan, and was selected as the first share of the science and technology board AI. On the first day of the listing, it broke, and the closing of the market fell more than 5%. After the shock, he settled down and set up many investors.

After many shuffles, the technology market has no longer just looking at technology. Compared to listening to stories, investors have made money to make money and talk about business landing. What the market needs to focus and solve problems. Long -term investment in huge research and development costs, insufficient hematopoietic capacity, high replacement, and difficulty in its own technology has become a common problem for Xinchuang Technology Company. The first "Cambrian period failed to be spared in the stock price. Although the strength and valuations of technology companies will have staged inverted, they cannot avoid the valuation premium.

We find that technology companies drive and capital -oriented technology companies are often difficult to see market problems and customer needs. Many projects are like student projects, considering the possibility of experimental results, not the feasibility of market commercialization. These founding teams are keen on the entrepreneurial spirit of early Silicon Valley, but this is indeed a bit dissatisfied with the domestic soil and talent level. It is long and long. Even in the early years, Silicon Valley questioned the theory of unicorns. It is not worth it to grow to the bottom value at the expense of huge losses. How to balance between reality and ideals is a key issue.

03 The long -termism of SMEs is becoming a pseudo -proposition

In the past few years, compared with traditional industries, the top ten companies in the world are mostly Internet companies. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have exceeded trillion. The development model has a high wall, and under capital catalysis, the subdivision of Internet genes can always be thousands of miles a day.

People lay out new technologies, explore new models, and even develop new tools. From the sharing economy, new retail, online car rental, community group purchases, to new technology, and layout of physical industries, most players have not jumped out of the Internet narrative method.

In the past, there were a lot of air outlets. There were the first Internet consumption such as the perfect diary, bubble Matt, and Naixue's tea. IPO players of educational tracks such as high roads, New Oriental, etc., and there are also Shangtang, Guling deep pupils, clouds, and clouds. The first player in the field of AI segments such as technology, but in the same way, in addition to the high valuation and continuous breaking, capital and marketing -oriented companies who grew up to grow up have become the norm because of ischemia. The head of policy adjustment is a good start, and the direct result of the investor is the loss of confidence in investors.

The market is full of uncertainty, so that the Internet long -termism, which was regarded as Guiyi in the past, has gradually showed a failed side: the Internet model is known for its marginal costs. Standing remains unchanged or even lower, and the income curve will rise sharply, thereby forming a vast profit space. However, from the perspective of losses in most companies at the moment, many people regard long -termism as the shameless cloth of business, the slower the development, and the longer the long -termism. The imbalanced ROI makes the profit far away, and also overdrawn the market patience. The damage caused by the slowdown of the global economic slowdown is clear, rising interest rates, rising fuel costs, geopolitical factors, lingering supply chain issues, and soaring in the dollar are affecting every company. But recently, these large technology giants in the United States are better than other sectors. Except for Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple's financial reports even far exceed the expectations of Wall Street analysts, such as Amazon's traditional e -commerce business growth. Gradually, it was brought by voice business, AWS, including the media and logistics but rebounding strongly, and Microsoft's scientific and technological innovation business in the cloud was also very dazzling.

Coincidentally, since the second quarter of this year, domestic Internet stocks have recovered, and some media pointed out: "Taking the Chinese Overseas Internet ETF of the American Golden Rui Fund as an example, according to Futu information, in the second quarter of this year, the cumulative increase of this ETF increased by nearly 15% Among them, in June, it rose over 12%; Pu Yin International Securities pointed out in the research report that in June this year, the overall secondary market funds of China's stock market returned to US $ 601.7 billion, accounting for 17.6%of the turnover in June, and the return was large; Among them, the relative net inflows of Chinese stocks are the largest, reaching 21.1%. Whether it is the overall Chinese stock market, Hong Kong stocks, A shares and Chinese stocks, the capital flow has begun to rebound. "

The market has favorable markets when the Internet population dividends are topped, but the bubbles have always made investors more cautious, so voting with their feet, capital and trust gathers the heads of the track, and the players who subdivide small tracks are subdivided. Naturally, it was left out. Giants such as Baidu, Ali, Tencent, and other giants have made a second growth curve, and small and medium -sized enterprises are also trying to transform. However, as we all know, in terms of resources, talents, cash flow, etc., the latter is difficult to compete with the former. Even the first share in the industry can avoid the fate of value restructuring.

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