Why does Intel fall down the altar

The former Intel was a well -deserved chip king. The market share in the PC computer was as high as 80%, accounting for more than 30 years. Now, Intel has been surpassed step by step, what did Intel miss?

Author: Ren Xiaoning Zhang Yaqi

Figure: Oriental IC

Guide

One || Like the previous quarters, Intel's financial indicators in the second quarter were declining to varying degrees, but this decline was even more violent. Regarding the reasons for the decline in performance, Intel Financial Director Jindinsner said that small and medium -sized enterprises slow down PC's purchase speed and the rapid decline in economy has also led to problems with many chip supply links.

|| Intel's queue is not formed a day. Market analysis company Susquehanna said in an analysis report that for decades, Intel has a series of failed projects, acquisitions and strategic mistakes.

Three || Intel's story can provide lessons. When the leader is lying on his own credit book, he is likely to be surpassed by the chase. At this time, it is difficult to turn over.

On August 3, after the announcement of 70%of the revenue in the second quarter, AMD President Su Zifeng said excitedly that AMD is occupying more servers and PC market share. On the morning of August 5th, Beijing time, AMD's market value was 168.3 billion US dollars, exceeding Intel's $ 146.4 billion.

"AMD has been suppressed by Intel before. Now Intel is too busy, AMD has no opponent and has gained unprecedented development opportunities." Wang Chao, the founder of Wenyuan Think Tank, told the Economic Observer reporter. AMD has chased the market boss Intel for more than 30 years, and is experiencing a drop of falling. In addition to the stock price surpassed by AMD, Intel's latest financial report gives the first loss in 30 years, and Intel's revenue was first overtaken by TSMC for the first time in the second quarter.

The former Intel was a well -deserved chip king. The market share in the PC computer was as high as 80%, accounting for more than 30 years. Now, Intel has been surpassed step by step, what did Intel miss?

Wang Chao believes that Intel's rise and fall story can also bring experience and lessons to the domestic semiconductor industry. For the chase, the continuous investment may surpass the previous king one day. At the same time, when the leader is lying comfortably on his own credit book, it is likely to be surpassed by the chase.

Fall into the altar

"It is the worst report that we have seen in our career." Bernstein analyst Starca Lasgang directly commented on Intel's second quarter financial report.

As in previous quarters, Intel's financial indicators in the second quarter were declining to varying degrees, but this decline was even more violent. Intel's second quarter revenue was 15.3 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 17%, the largest decline in 1999, far lower than the market -expected $ 17.66 billion. In the second quarter, a net loss was 500 million US dollars. The same period last year was $ 5.1 billion, from profit to loss. At the same time, Intel also reduced its annual performance forecast from US $ 76 billion to 65 billion to $ 68 billion, far lower than the market expectations of US $ 74.76 billion.

Regarding the reasons for the decline in performance, Intel Financial Director Jindinsner said that small and medium -sized enterprises slow down PC's purchase speed and the rapid decline in economy has also led to problems with many chip supply links.

IDC data shows that the global traditional PC shipments fell 5.1%year -on -year in the first quarter of 2022, and the decline in the second quarter further increased to 15.3%. The top three PCs are Lenovo, Hewlett -Packard and Dell. This is two years after the PC industry has grown two years after the second quarter of consecutive quarters.

According to media reports, in early July, Dell urgently notified the panel factory, which was reduced by 50 % from the desktop and laptop display panels since July. This means that Dell cuts 50%of the entire PC product line, and Intel may also be affected by downstream cuts.

In addition to the PC business, Intel also has another main source of revenue, namely the data center and the artificial intelligence business department (DCAI). The revenue of this part is 4.6 billion US dollars, and the second quarter is also declining, a year -on -year decrease of 16%.

In addition to decreased market demand, Intel CEO Pat Kissinger also blamed the reasons for the decline in the company's performance. The global new crown pneumonia epidemic impact supply and transportation problems, as well as economic downturn.

However, facing the impact of the epidemic and the reduction of the PC market, AMD's revenue rose 70%in the second quarter. TSMC's revenue also increased, with revenue of US $ 18.16 billion in the second quarter, an increase of 36%year -on -year, exceeding Intel's $ 15.3 billion. "Everyone developed on the body of Intel," Wang Chao lamented to reporters. "One giant falls down, everyone will benefit."

Decline

Intel's queue was not formed a day. "The decline in the stock price is to make a blame." Pat Kissinger said that the company's latest announcement not only disappointed investors, but also disappointed Intel. After the financial report was announced, Intel's stock price fell 9%on the day, and continued to fall a few days later.

Market analysis company Susquehanna said in an analysis report that for decades, Intel has a series of failed projects, acquisitions and strategic mistakes.

Wang Chao believes that Intel has no way to prosecute the progress of technology. "Intel X86 is very good, but in the era of mobile Internet, ARM chips are more and more, and Intel has been surpassed by the times."

Since the last century, Intel has been the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, a well -deserved semiconductor leader. But in 2005, the then Intel CEO Paul Ouden made a misjudgment. When Apple wanted Intel to develop a mobile phone CPU for the iPhone, Paul Ouden refused that Apple's offer was too low. In the following years, the initial iPhone was released with the ARM architecture chip designed by Samsung, which was successful and succeeded. The X86 king missed the opportunity to seize the opportunity in the mobile Internet tide. Although Intel later launched the ATOM series chip for mobile devices, it took this chip to surf the Internet. Later , Can't compete with Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung. In 2016, Intel announced the suspension of the development of the ATOM series processors, and from then on the field of mobile phones and tablets.

After 2015, Intel's new business attempts were almost sinking in the sea, and pushed 7nm processes. Faced with inefficient "squeeze toothpaste" product updates, dissatisfaction consumers teased Intel as a "toothpaste factory".

When Intel continues to have problems, its opponents are step by step.

After Su Zifeng joined the bankruptcy AMD in 2012, AMD developed an advanced Zen architecture. After three generations of change, the market share of AMD chips in the CPU market climbed to about 40%.

In February this year, AMD spent $ 35 billion to acquire chip manufacturer Sel Lindi, completed a large -scale acquisition in the semiconductor industry, and became the largest factory occupying FPGA's 49%market share, more than 35%of Intel. With the CPU, GPU, and FPGA ace products, AMD has formed a complete high -performance computer system, which has achieved curve overtaking in chips, and continuously eclipse the market share that was originally ruled by Intel.

In the field of process manufacturing, Intel also made mistakes and gave TSMC the opportunity to grow. At present, TSMC and Apple, Huawei, AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm have been overcome for many years, and they have overcome the 7nm process process, and then achieved mass production of the 5nm process. The 3 -nanometer crafts will be put into production in the second half of this year, leading the semiconductor field in the second half of this year.

In the field of artificial intelligence and GPU, Nvidia is also "grabbing food" Intel. In the case of AMD's financial crisis and Intel's stagnation in the GPU field, Nvidia foreseen the application of the GPU in the AI ​​market and succeeded in the field of graphics processors. Today's Nvidia will extend the tentacles and data centers, professional visualization, smart cars, cryptocurrency mining and other areas of scale and profitability. These are the businesses involved in Intel.

Can you reproduce the glory of the past?

"We are indeed at the trough." Zhelner admitted this fact. However, he believes that the transfer is formed. Pat Kissinger also said that the current quarter is expected to be the bottom of Intel. After the inventory adjustment is adjusted, customers will soon re -place orders.

Intel is re -reinstalizing the moment. In fact, last spring, when Pat Kissinger returned to Intel at the age of 60, he was regarded by the outside world as a moment when Intel changed. On the same day, Intel's stock price rose more than 7%. Pat Kissinger risked in financial risks and the pressure of performance to promote the IDM2.0 strategy.

Earlier, Intel has always adhered to the old IDM model, relying on "eating old books" in technology, making Intel have different competitors in various fields. Faced with the aggressive rival, in 2021, Pat Kissinger launched a new IDM2.0 strategy. Compared with the past, this plan will focus on strengthening Intel chip manufacturing capabilities in order to better integrate globalized chip supply chains. At the same time, Pat also announced that it provides customers with the authorization of X86 in order to build a new ecosystem with customers.

Subsequently, Intel announced that it would invest $ 20 billion in two new chip factories in Arizona, USA, and is expected to be put into production in 2024. In May 2021, Intel upgraded the New Mexican chip factory. In early 2022, Intel announced that it would invest $ 20 billion to build two chip manufacturers in Ohio.

From the perspective of investors, the newly -built chip manufacturers will bring huge investment. The high investment of IDM2.0 is not only difficult to see the return in the short term. Main PC chips and data centers are in the dilemma brought about by negative growth. The market does not give a satisfactory answer to Pat Kissinger, which pays attention to science and technology research and development and does not pursue the performance of short -term capital markets, which is also reflected in the Intel Financial Report and stock market in the second quarter.

"It's hard to say that it is the bottom of Intel." Wang Chao told reporters that the chip industry is "the stronger the strong, the richer the rich", which is a particularly obvious industry. The industry trend is becoming more and more focused, and once this trend is formed, it is difficult to end. "For example, in terms of advanced processes, TSMC's research and development cost investment is also high. It is more difficult to catch up with TSMC than Intel. It is very difficult for Intel to catch up with TSMC."

Can Intel reproduce the glory of the past? Market analysis company Susquehanna is not optimistic. "Unless they can maintain the leadership position (possibility is very low), or change the strategic direction, we expect Intel's growth, profitability and cash flow issues to continue." Paying attention to the Internet and technology industries for more than 10 years, Wang Chao is very emotional to Intel's rise and fall. "This industry is really a talented person in Jiangshan. For decades, Zhang Zhongmou just founded TSMC in 1987. Intel was the industry was the industry. Brother, the giant is generally existed, but when the rise of the iPhone in 2010 brought about the mobile Internet era, the market status of the two quickly rotated. He believes that the story of Intel can also bring reference for the domestic semiconductor industry in the backward position. "In the field of catch -up people, you continue to invest. Once you form an advanced process, one day you may surpass the previous previous before the previous process. King, the new monopoly advantage is also difficult to be subverted. "

Of course, Intel's story can provide lessons. When the leader is lying on his own credit book, he is likely to be surpassed by the chase. At this time, it is difficult to turn over.

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