Space "weather forecast", danger already knows

Space "weather forecast", danger already knows

Daily life is inseparable from the weather forecast. Astronauts must also pay attention to space weather in space, rocket launch, satellite operation ... Today, with the rapid development of space exploration, space weather forecast has become increasingly important. At the end of the 1990s, the China Meteorological Administration began space weather business tests. In 2002, the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center was established, and the space weather business was officially launched in 2004. On November 16, 2021, the International Civil Aviation Organization Global Space Weather Center was unveiled, realizing spatial weather services in the global civil aviation industry to ensure aviation safety. Since its completion in 2002, my country has basically established a "world integration" space weather monitoring pattern. But what is space and weather? How to forecast? What is the impact on humans?

What is space and weather

The changes in the environment of the solar explosion and the spatial environment caused by it

We living on the ground have become accustomed to changes in the weather and rain and snow. But far away from "Jiuxiao" and near the vacuum space space, will there be "weather"?

"Between the earth we are and the solar system of the solar system, we can see and feel the sun that we feel. In fact, it is just a small part of it. A large number of daily life such as gamma and X -rays is difficult to contact, energy The higher light is a frequent visitor. "Han Dayang, an engineer of the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center, said that there is still a moment of" blowing "to the solar wind in every corner of the solar system. Composition of charged particles, these particles are very fast, breaking the gravitational restraint of the sun by a speed of several hundred kilometers per second and entering the space of the universe.

"On this side near the earth, under the combination of sunlight and the solar wind, energy is in various forms to change the space environment of the earth, from inward inward to tens of thousands of kilometers or higher, to form inward, forming inward, forming inward, forming formation, forming inward, forming inward, forming formed The three -dimensional structure of the earth's magnetic field, ionization layer, and thermal layer. "Han Dayang explained.

On one side is the sun that continues to increase the reinforcement level output, and on the other side is the earth that sets up the "layer" to protect the base. The clever "tacit understanding" and dynamic "balance" in the cosmic space forms the two.

"The sun is not static!" Han Yang told reporters that the working mode of the sun is generally divided into two categories: calm and explosive. There are no obvious explosive activities. "Once you turn into the explosion mode, the solar wind will change significantly, speed up speed, increase density, and even increase the temperature of the temperature. It will be released at any time, and even the cooling time will be greatly shortened, and even the 'violent mode' is turned on. A variety of explosive activities occur at the same time and even continuously occur. "

"Corresponding to the two solar activity models, the space environment including the earth's magnetic layer, ionization layer, and thermal layer will also change. These changes will have a serious impact and serious impact and health system, communication and energy system, and human health. Harm. "Han Da Ocean concluded that the changes in the outbreak of the sun and the space environment caused by it were called space weather.

Therefore, the "wind" in the space and weather is the sun wind; "rain" is the rammer from the sun.

Where does the word "space and weather" come from?

According to Lu Jingtian, an engineer of the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center, in 1957, Science News Letter ("Scientific News") Previous articles of Science News Quote from Astronomers Lyman Spitzer's research on interstellar media, and conducted some theoreticals at the time at the time. Understanding the interpretation shows that the word "space weather" appeared here for the first time. In 1964, the then director of the US Meteorological Administration proposed at a meeting to establish a joint group in Burd, Colorado to study the related issues of space weather forecasting. In 1967, the word space and weather appeared in the relevant technical report of the US Environmental Science Service. In this way, the word "space weather" went to the public's vision. In the late 1960s, the term "space weather" has been widely used.

What are the space and weather research

Main monitoring and studying solar related parameters

Like meteorological elements such as wind, frost, rain and snow in the earth, there are also environmental parameters that can be detected in the space environment, but it is replaced with parameters such as particles, magnetic fields, electromagnetic waves. Compared with ground meteorological detection, what is the difference between space and weather monitoring?

According to Huang Cong, a researcher at the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center, the first is a larger range, from the high -level atmosphere from the height of 20 to 30 kilometers to the ground to the activity area of ​​the surface of the sun; The temperature, density, speed, etc. in the atmosphere also monitor ionic segments, magnetic layers and inter -planets, and particles, fields and temperatures on the surface of the solar surface.

"There are many ways to monitor space weather." Huang Cong said that for electromagnetic waves, optical remote sensing and radio methods can be used to observe; for magnetic fields, magnetic flux doors or magnetic resistance technology are performed; Monitor of electrostatic analyzer.

What areas do space and weather research mainly care about?

Huang Cong told reporters that it is mainly concentrated in the three areas, the source of space and weather, the sun, about 150 million kilometers of the earth; The area from the surface of the sun to thousands of kilometers on the ground; the earth response area of ​​the space and weather -ionization layer and mid -to -high level atmosphere, from thousands of kilometers to the ground from a height of 20 to 30 kilometers from the ground. "A complete space weather incident generally has the laws and effects of influence and effects from the surface of the sun, then spreading and evolving on the planetary space, and finally in the planetary space." In terms of space and weather business, it is necessary to monitor the necessary areas of the important areas of this spatial weather incident causing chain of the weather and weather incident. The monitoring content includes the activity area of ​​the sun surface , Planets, magnetic layers and electromagnetic parameters such as particles, electric fields, magnetic fields and fluctuations, etc., such as density, temperature and speed in thermal layer and ionization layer.

The research target of space weather is the space field with more than 20 kilometers on the surface of the earth, and this is exactly the spatial field where most aerospace, satellites, communications, and navigation activities occur or depend on. Therefore, catastrophic space can directly affect it.

According to reports, for aerospace devices, the most afraid of microelectronics components on the spacecraft is the higher energy parts in high -energy particles. These high -energy particles can penetrate electronic components, causing data errors, circuit function chaos, or computer rectification. Paralysis of the machine, causing abnormal or failure of the machine, and even completely destroyed it.

"And high -energy particles with relatively low energy can generate charge accumulation at the circuit board, wires and other positions inside the spacecraft, which hinders the normal work of the spacecraft." Huang Cong said that during the launch and operation of the spacecraft Continuous monitoring and forecasting of the elements, and early warning of possible catastrophe weather incidents that may occur can ensure the safety of spacecraft.

What is the accuracy of space and weather forecasting

Entering the era of numericalization, but "just entered the threshold"

"The main source of space weather changes is the sun. The severe outbreak of 'solar atmosphere' will have a significant impact on space weather, such as the sun's spots, the throwing of the daily crowned material, and the sun proton submare incident." According to the national spatial weather monitoring and early warning center, Song Qiao Jianxuan is that the splendid spot is a sudden increase in small blocks on the surface of the sun. The radiation enhancement of the spots usually spread throughout the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Among them, the influence of radiation in high -energy bands such as extremely ultraviolet and X -rays on the Earth's ionization layer is particularly significant.

"The outermost atmosphere of the sun is called the corona. As the name implies, the daily coronal material will throw a large number of magnetized plasma to the space. The number of high -energy particles from the sun will grow rapidly, and these high -energy particles will threaten space stations and astronauts. "Song Qiao said.

But we have been preparing for this. The E -Star No. 3, which was launched last year, carried my country's first space telescope -can achieve observation of solar corona activities, effectively enhance the monitoring capabilities of space weather, and provide data support for more accurate space weather forecasts.

At present, the National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center has basically realized the autonomous observation of the "entire process" on the Japanese causality chain. Time windows forecast to prevent astronauts from suffering from severe solar high -energy particles radiation, and provide a higher outlet safety factor for astronauts. For example, in 2008 Shenzhou VII manned spacecraft instructed Zhai Zhigang to become the first space clerk in my country. At that time, the National Satellite Meteorological Center accurately predicts the time of the outlet window in combination with the space weather environment.

How is our space weather forecast?

Song Qiao introduced that the space weather forecasting staff will collect the latest observation data, including solar images of each band, solar X -ray traffic, solar magnetic field, geomagnetic index, ionization layer status, etc. Numerical simulation, etc. make predictions, make discussions with the chief forecast, so as to draw conclusions of space weather forecast and produce various forecast products.

"There are many types of spatial weather forecast products, including daily newspapers, weekly newspapers, monthly reports, annual reports, etc." Song Qiao said that the Space Weather Daily summarizes the space and weather in the past 24 hours, and predicts the space weather status of the next 1-3 days, including the sun, including the sun, including the sun, including the sun, including the sun, including the sun, including the sun The level of activity, the level of geomagnetic activity, and the status of the ionization layer; the space weather weekend is to summarize the space weather trend of the past 7 days to predict the weather trend of space in the next 7 days. "When there are important spatial weather events such as great spots and geomagnetic storms, space weather forecasts will also be released, so that ordinary people can also understand the latest space weather status."

Today, space weather forecast has also entered the era of numericalization. "Based on observation data and scientific theory, it is constantly developing by predicting the probability of Yaotao through physical parameters on the surface of the solar surface and calculating solar wind parameters through numerical models." Song Qiao said that with the launch of spacecraft and satellites in various countries, new ones are new, new ones are new, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones, new ones. Observation data is continuous, and the level of space weather forecasting will steadily improve.

"There is a very interesting phenomenon of solar activity, which is about one cycle every 11 years.The weather forecast "just step into the threshold."(Reporter Cui Xingyi)

【Edit: Wang Yu】

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