Can the trade war against China be played?See "disease" for the US economy first

Recently, the US media has frequently released the wind, and Biden will soon decide to cancel tariffs on 10 billion US dollars of daily necessities of about $ 370 billion in Chinese transmission and American products. Strike.

▲ The trade war initiated by the U.S. government not only failed to prevent the development of China's economic development, but also hurt the US economy like a rotary dart. (Comic | Liu Rui)

In 2018, the Trump administration levied the large -scale tax on Chinese goods in accordance with the so -called "Article 301". Four years have passed, and the two tariffs have expired in July and August this year. The United States obviously has not achieved the goal of reversing the deficit and "greatness" in the United States.

Not only that, in 2021, China's exports to the United States increased significantly by 27.5%, and the US trade surplus reached US $ 396.5 billion, which was much higher than the US $ 323.3 billion before the outbreak of the trade war. The "big stick" of the US tariffs finally fell on the head of its own consumers.

▲ In June 2022, US Treasury Minister Yellen said that some tariffs on China during Trump's period "have no strategic significance", but increased the cost of American consumers.

Although the US trade representative Dai Qi insisted that "the important bargaining chip of tariffs on China should not be abandoned", it still cannot stop the call from all walks of life from all walks of life. More than 300 American manufacturers jointly wrote to Bynden, asking for termination of tariffs to protect corporate competitiveness. Economist and former Treasury Secretary Sames urged the White House to cancel tariffs as much as possible to deal with domestic inflation. Treasury Minister Yellen criticized the Trump administration's tariffs on China's tariffs. The US economic review report launched by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also suggested that tariffs on China. The "Wall Street Journal" editorially said that tariffs on China are like a blunt weapon, which harms Americans than harm to China.

▲ Behind American economic issues is a more serious social problem. The picture shows the people's hand "this is not just economic issues, but also a slogan of deception, lies, theft, betrayal, and corruption."

Thirty years ago, the Democratic presidential candidate Clinton had a loud slogan: "Stupid, the problem is the economy!" This sentence can be given to today's Democratic government. Instead of weighing how to use tariff chips to curb and suppress China, it is better to show your economy first.

Discover the US economy:

Inflation "high fever does not retreat"

To go to see a doctor in the U.S. economy, you have to hang a hot clinic. The US Consumption Price Index (CPI) exceeded 8%from March to May 2022, and rose to 9.1%in June. It has reached a new high in 41 years. Treasury Secretary Yellen bluntly said "unacceptable".

▲ In June 2022, the US consumer price index soared to 9.1%, a new high of 41 years. (Source of data | US Ministry of Labor)

High prices have become the most important factor affecting the US midterm elections this year. In contrast, Biden's support rate has been "falling" all the way, and the "CIVIQS" polls show that Biden's support rate has been exploring to 30%, and the decline is great. The most president. Among young voters aged 18 to 34, only 21%of them supported Biden. As high as 57%were dissatisfied with Biden's work performance.

Faced with the inflation rate that has not been seen for decades, the Federal Reserve has a great situation of "making storms more violently" and sacrificing the less interest rate hikes that have not been raised for nearly thirty years -a single interest rate hike 75 basis points.

However, everyone remembers that when the inflation rate rose rapidly last year, the Federal Reserve promoted the "temporary theory of inflation". When the inflation rate fluctuated at a high level in the first quarter of this year, it was the Federal Reserve that preached the "inflation". The speed of the Fed's understanding of inflation and adjustment policies is far from keeping the speed of development and evolution of inflation itself.

▲ As the inflation of the United States has continued to rise, the level of prices remain high, and the concerns about the decline in the US economy have also increased.

As the former US Treasury Secretary Samers said, "the work of the Federal Reserve is like the temperature of twisting the faucet in an old hotel. All movements have a delay of 20 or 30 seconds. You don't think the water is not hot enough. Twisted left, no movement, twist again, no movement, then twisted, and then you yelled out of the bathtub. "

The former president of the Deutsche Federal Bank said, "Inflation is like a toothpaste. Once you come out of the tube, it is difficult to retract." Can the Fed raised interest rates at this time, can it really cure the disease of the US economy? To answer this question, you must first know why the US economy is "fever".

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Fed has opened a round of bottomless large water release. Its balance sheet has expanded from $ 4.17 trillion to $ 8.76 trillion in two years, equivalent to an average annual issue of 44%of currencies.

▲ As the Fed takes more radical measures to deal with inflation, more and more economists believe that the risk of decline in the US economy is rising.

Currency stimulus should be an emergency means to reverse decline, but the Fed has long -term short -term strategy. The huge types of asset pools failed to fully absorb the additional currency, but the large water drilling has nowhere to flood, and the price can only rise.

The "Financial Times" article pointed out that the current inflation of the United States is not only a currency phenomenon, but also closely related to the supply factors. The new crown epidemic, the Ukraine crisis, coupled with the trade war of the decourse chain, the normal operation of the international supply chain was disturbed, and the price was also pushed up from the supply side.

The debt issue in the United States is a shadow hidden behind the interest rate hike. The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded US $ 30.3 trillion, and the fiscal year of 2020 and 2021 is 14.9%and 12.4%, respectively. The total federal debt has remained above 130%of GDP, setting a record since 1945. The rapid interest rate hikes of the Fed will undoubtedly exacerbate the pressure on government bonds, and may even make the US government "close" again. The Federal Reserve has no controlling water, and once created the so -called "strong recovery" of the US economy. However, when the tide retreats, you can see who is swimming naked. The US economy declined by 1.6%in the first quarter of this year, opening a prologue of economic atrophy.

The founder of Bridge Water Fund Ruida Dalio pointed out that the Fed will not be able to take any measures against inflation under the assumptions that do not cause economic weakness. Jamie Dimon, general manager of Wall Street Giant Morgan Chase, predicts that an economic "hurricane" is coming. In the past 15 weeks, the Nasdaq Index has been closed for 12 weeks, and its market value has fallen by 1/4.

In addition, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is huge globally. The appreciation of the US dollar caused a large amount of capital to flow into the United States and harvested leek from the world. A few days ago, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has reached nearly 1: 1, and the European allies in the United States may have to be forced to shorten the time this winter. A warm reminder -don't wash in the "Federal Reserve Hotel", it is a scar when it is hot ...

Two Explore the US economy:

Industrial development "tumor abnormality"

The US inflation is high and the economy has declined, but a few industries still maintain barbaric growth. Like tumors, they erode nutrients from the body of the US economy without daily the US economy, feeding a small number of capitals, and hurting the majority of people.

The financial industry is a typical development of deformity, accounting for more than 20%in the national economy. For a long time, the United States has relying on the US dollar as the dominant position of the world's main trade settlement currency and reserve currency. It can collect coinage taxes from the world through abuse of US dollars.

The huge USD foreign exchange reserves held by countries often return to the US market in the form of purchasing US dollar Treasury bonds; while US capital injected these funds into high -return investment projects in emerging economies represented by China to obtain high returns. In this way, Wall Street occupies a large number of social resources in the United States, and even abducted economic policies for the reason for "big enough to fall into", forcing the US government to rescue large enterprises in the financial crisis.

▲ The American movie "Wolf of Wall Street" tells the story of Jordan Bell Ford, a legendary figure in Wall Street. Among them, the actor Leonardo played the crazy scene of the crazy money of Wall Street elite life.

Financial crocodiles are constantly conducting political lobbying and contributing political contributions. Its agents enter as executives, and they are in politics, and they are firmly bound with the US government. The unhealthy development of the financial industry has exacerbated the differentiation of the rich and the poor. According to the research of economist Piketi, US capital returns have long been higher than economic growth, which makes social wealth more and more concentrated in a few people. The wealth of 1%of the wealthy in the United States has exceeded the total wealth of the 90%population of the bottom.

The medical industry is also a "tumor". In 2021, the medical and health expenses of American society have reached 18%of GDP, and the average value of the world's major developed economies in the world is only 8.8%. However, the high medical expenses do not mean that the health of Americans has been better care. On the contrary, the life expectancy of the United States decreased from 78.86 in 2019 to 76.6 years in 2021, which is lower than China. The low -cost medical services can only be a thirst for ordinary people in the United States.

▲ American medical expenditure accounts for GDP percentage far exceeding the world average. (Source of data | World Bank)

The reason is that the private medical industry in the United States is a strong interest group. It is among the best in the field of political lobbying. Through one "incomparable condition", the government has expanded the government's large number of medical insurance coverage and compressed medical industry profits. Effects of space. The results of the "Obama Medical Reform" that were difficult to pass at the time were even sold by the Trump administration. While you are sick and make your money, only God knows if you do not do well.

The military industry is even more inflated. The US expense budget in 2022 has reached US $ 770 billion, accounting for 40%of global military expenditures. Although the US military forces are strong, how much is the taxpayer's money on the blade?

▲ US military expenditure accounts for GDP percentage far exceeding the world average. (Source of data | World Bank)

The 25,000 -ton dock landing ship, a US Navy cost 1.46 billion US dollars, which is more than ten times that of a landing ship with equivalent tonnage of the Chinese navy.

The U.S. military has invested US $ 2.26 trillion in 20 years in Afghanistan, and an average of 300 million US dollars per day has not escaped the fate of the evacuation. The Pentagon has also been exposed to a cost of $ 6 million to Afghanistan from nine goats from Italy to Afghanistan. The name is to support the Afghan animal husbandry, but the price of lambs is not convinced, and it has died early.

Former US President Eisenhower has warned the American people to be alert to the harm of the "monster" of military engineering composite. In the past half a century, today's lobbying groups who are still active in American politics are still active.

Under their influence, the Pentagon has continuously introduced the threat of the white paper to rendering security. The US government is looking for enemies and provocative troubles in the world under the guise of maintaining "national security" and promoting "democratic freedom". In the continuous increase of military expenditure ledger, after a series of war scenes such as Afghanistan and Iraq, under the madness of "fighting to the last Ukrainian", the US military -worker complex was winning, but the people of the world were miserable. Three explore the US economy:

Economic structure "half -body"

The United States is still an economic giant, but it has become a "mud giant".

The United States once had a strong manufacturing industry, but after the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system, the United States lay on the credit book to let the US dollar capital expand disorderly worldwide. Separation.

▲ From 2000 to 2020, the proportion of US manufacturing in the total of GDP continued to decline. (Source of data | World Bank)

In the past 50 years, from "strong body" to "four bodies" to "limb atrophy", many industrial cities in the past have long been reduced to "rust belts". Although the U.S. government has expressed its determination to regain the manufacturing industry in recent years, even if it has been used to solve the number, the manufacturing capacity has been thin.

▲ The manufacturing industry of the "City of Automobile" has supported the US economy in the 20th century, but now a large number of factories shut down and become a "rust belt" city.

With the outflow of manufacturing, the proportion of service industries in the US economic structure has continued to rise, and it has exceeded 80%. Many of them are non -trading products, which is essentially the mutual transfer of domestic wealth, not the creation of wealth.

▲ In 2020, the US service industry accounted for more than 80%of the total GDP. (Source of data | World Bank)

When the supply of goods encountered a bottleneck, the baby formula milk powder had a shortage, and these "fat" GDPs were basically unsuitable, so that the Bayeng government had to start the "National Defense Production Law" forced intervention in the market. The United States fell the abyss itself, and the "invisible hand" could not be removed.

The shrinkage of the American manufacturing capabilities and the excessive virtualization of the economic structure damage the internal cycle of the US economy, the long -term competitiveness of the US economy, which affects the shelves and vegetable baskets of the American people. Baby milk powder will never be the last product that appears.

▲ In May 2022, the United States suffered a crisis of baby formula milk powder. In the first week of May, the US milk powder out of stock was as high as 43%, and the price soared 18%compared to the same period last year.

"Han Feizi" records such a story: During the Warring States Period, the divine doctor Bian Zeng saw Cai Gonggong three, and pointed out that Cai Yonggong had illness into texture, muscles, and illness.

After exploring the US economy, we found that there are deficiency heat in the US economy, swelling outside, and atrophy of limbs, but they will only blindly raise interest rates. I am afraid that Mingguangzong eats red pills -it is too long. As an economist Judy Sheldon said, if interest rate hike becomes the only thing that the Fed can do, the real problem cannot be solved.

Some politicians in the United States turned a blind eye to their own problems, but they just wanted to throw the pot to blame and stress China. But no matter how these politicians shake the pot, the economic laws are there. If the Bayeng government is committed to the internal lesion, and the tariffs are operating against China, they will be hammered by the law of economic law, and eventually they have to get the meat. Sadly, those politicians who have been knocked into the bone and absorbing the marrow will never be the elites of politicians.

▲ In recent years, the life expectancy of the United States has declined for many years. (Source of data | Sociology Research Report of the University of Colorado)

The development of China can stand the wind and rain, and the export trade data with strong performance is evidence. The U.S. tariffs are the "Damocaris Sword" on the head of Biden's government. It is not scared or scared that the Chinese will only be the United States.

The essence of Sino -US relations is mutual benefit and win -win. The key to solving the U.S. economic dilemma is to let go of arrogance bias, regain rational and pragmatic, cancel unreasonable tariffs on China, and seek to find US funds and technical elements and Chinese capacity. Balance, reconstruct the economic and trade relations of mutual achievements in China and the United States.

It's all at this time, whether to connect the white blade or hold the key, the White House must think clearly.

【Source】 Chaoyang Shaoxia

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