Exciting interest rate hike expectations to increase the yield of 10 -year US debt yields

The benchmark 10 -year US debt yields that are regarded as "anchors of global asset pricing" have soared! According to Wind data from the Securities Daily, on June 13, the 10 -year US debt yield was reported at 3.43%, which was a significant upward at 3.15%on June 10, the largest increase since March 18, 2020 The level of 3.43%is the highest since April 21, 2011.

In this regard, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the increase in 10 -year US debt yields is mainly due to the changes in the market's expected Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path. Continue to tighten monetary policy with faster rhythm.

It is worth mentioning that while the 10 -year US debt yields are moving up, the 2 -year US debt yields that are more sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy have also risen rapidly. The US debt yields have made the two -year and 10 -year US debt yield curve again upside down since April.

More aggressive interest rate hike expectations

Warm up again

Looking back at the trend of 10 -year US debt yields since May, it started to fluctuate down after reaching a high point of 3.12%on May 6th, and started to rise to the lowest point of 2.74%on May 27. On June 6, it rose to more than 3%, and it fell slightly to 2.98%on June 7. As of June 8th, as of June 13, the 10 -year US bond yields rose more than 3%or more trading days, which were reported to 3.03%, 3.04%, 3.15%, and 3.43%, respectively.

Regarding the rebound trend of the recent 10 -year US debt yield, Bai Xue, an analyst of the Department of East Jincheng Research and Development Department, told the Securities Daily reporter that EU's event impact on Russia's oil embargo and other events caused international oil prices It is expected that the superimposed non -agricultural employment data is strongly supported, and the Federal Reserve will take a more radical interest rate hike expectation to rise again for the year, especially in September and after the year. The trend of US debt yields rose.

"The recent increase in US debt yields is mainly due to the changes in the market's expected Fed's interest rate hike path." Wang Youxin said that in May, the U.S. inflation data went up again, and the inflation pressure resurrected. The market concerned was not enough to change consumer behavior. Limited to inhibit inflation. In order to avoid the situation similar to the rising wages and prices 40 years ago, the Fed is expected to continue to tighten the monetary policy with greater efforts and faster rhythms. Affected by this, the recent US debt yields have risen rapidly.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on June 10, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.0%month -on -year, an increase of 8.6%year -on -year, and the largest value since December 1981.

Earlier, the market is generally expected to raise interest rate hikes this month, but as soon as the data is announced, the market's concerns about inflation and economic prospects will spread rapidly. Goldman Sachs revised the Federal Reserve's expectations, that is, the Fed will have 75 basis points in June and July; the chief American economist of JP Morgan Chase, Ferroli, even believes that the interest rate hike of 100 basis points is also "meaningful" Risk attempt.

In the later period, Bai Xue believed that the 10 -year US debt yield continued to rise in insufficient power, and the high point may be around 3.5%. Considering that the price base of the second half of the year, the limited room for oil prices, and the "salary -inflation" spiral risk is controllable, the direction of inflation will be more certain, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten the monetary policy to tighten the monetary policy.

2 -year US debt yield rate

Returns quickly in the near future

In addition to the continuous rise in 10 -year US bond yields, the yield of 2 -year US bonds has also risen rapidly in the near future.

According to Wind data from the Securities Daily, on June 13, the 2 -year US debt yield was reported 3.4%, which was a significant upward increase from the previous trading day. The yield level hit the high since November 15, 2007.

It is also based on the heating expected to be more aggressive in the Federal Reserve, and the 2 -year US debt yields with a higher sensitivity to monetary policy have increased sharply. ——The twenty -year -old US bonds and 10 -year US debt yield curves are upside down, which is usually regarded as the leading indicators of economic recession.

"We should not give excessive recession instructions to the current short -term and single -ending two -year US bonds and 10 -year US debt yield curves." Bai Xue said, on the one hand, the growth and growth of the US debt long and short -end yields rate It is an important reflection of the economic situation, but it is not a decisive indicator; on the other hand, the short -term two -year US bond and 10 -year US debt yield curve inverted the economic recession, which is poorly indicated. At least you need to see it. Continuous inverted and combined with the comprehensive inverted inverted inverter of other yield curves, judgment is even more reliable.

Wind data shows that on June 13, compared with the more than 170 basis points of the March U.S. Treasury and 10 -year US bonds with a stronger recession, it is still at a high level. The 10 -year US debt yield spread is significantly deviated, which obviously means that the argument that judge recession from the perspective of yield curve is insufficient.

Bai Xue said that the current US consumption and investment momentum is still relatively strong, but considering that the Fed will quickly raise interest rates to the level of neutral interest rates during the year, the tightening of financial conditions will suppress the total demand. This year's US economic slowdown is a certain trend, but during the yearThe possibility of economic stall and recession is not much likely.In 2023, with the continuous advancement of interest rate hikes, the possibility of short -term economic recession does not rule out.But in general, this round of interest rate hikes will reflect strong flexibility in the later stage, resulting in relatively controllable risks of the US economy hard landing.(Reporter Liu Qi) [Editor in charge: Li Tong]

- END -