The industry expects that LPR will remain unchanged this month, and there will

Reporter Liu Qi

Financial data increased in May. However, in terms of the credit structure, the incremental incremental characteristics of residential loans and enterprises (affairs) industry units show the characteristics of the "shorter shorter" characteristics, and the new and long -term loans are not as good as the same period last year. In this context, is there a possibility of lowering LPR (market loan quotation interest rate) this month?

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the weak growth of medium and long -term loans reflects the low domestic property market in May, and the demand for medium and long -term loans in enterprises is weak. Judging from the current profit of some small and medium -sized banks' profit and deposit liabilities, it is difficult to reduce the LPR "plus" department in the short term, so it is difficult to adjust the LPR this month.

"In May, enterprises (affairs) industry units increased by 555.1 billion yuan in medium- and long -term loans, although less than the same period last year, but it has rebounded significantly compared with April." On the whole, compared with April in May, in April, in April, it has significantly recovered. With the impact of the epidemic, the motivation of corporate fund demand will steadily increase. In May, LPRs above 5 years have surpassed 15 basis points, which helps encourage financial institutions to increase medium and long -term credit investment and meet the needs of enterprises and residents. At the same time, from the perspective of interest rate data, the overall loan interest rate of corporate loans continues to decline. Therefore, in the short term, the necessity of continuing to lower LPR in the short term is not large, and LPR is expected to remain stable this month.

According to data previously released by the central bank, the interest rate of corporate loans from January to April this year was 4.39%, a year -on -year decrease of 0.25 percentage points, remained at a low level since the statistical record.

Although analysts are expected to remain unchanged this month, LPR still has room to reduce in the later period. CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly believes that the current regulatory authorities continue to guide the cost of liabilities for liabilities. As the cost of bank liabilities decline, LPR is expected to drive down. Since the beginning of the year, my country's actual loan interest rate has declined. It is expected that LPR will still be further reduced in the second half of the year, especially for more than 5 years of LPR reduction space, and then release more space for the reduction of actual loan interest rates.

From the perspective of Xie Yunliang, the macro -chief analyst of Cinda Securities, a new round of LPR reduces the starting point or is the reform of deposit interest rates. At present, the liquidity and capital constraints facing banks are not strong. The reform mechanism will promote the marketization of deposit interest rates. It is expected to further reduce the cost of bank liabilities and create space for LPR to reduce again. Compared with the 1 -year LPR, the possibility of falling more than 5 -year LPR is more likely to fall again. The reason is that the short loan demand has not been weak this year, and the need for 1 year LPR is not very strong. On the contrary The significance of stabilizing mortgages and stable expectations is significant. From the perspective of the duration difference, the current one -year and 5 -year LPR spread is 0.75%, which is still room for the lowest level from 0.6%.

Pan Gongsheng, deputy president of the central bank and director of the Foreign Exchange Bureau, emphasized at the press conference held in early June that the next stage will continue to promote the reduction of corporate financing costs. Deepen the reform of LPR, give full play to the guiding role of LPR, implement the adjustment mechanism of marketization of deposit interest rates, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, and drive the steady decline of corporate loan interest rates.

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