In the first half of the year, my country's GDP increased by 2.5%year -on -year.

Be wary of economic repair and disturb

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the GDP in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%.

Under the impact of the epidemic, this change is obviously difficult to come. At present, my country's economy is repairing the channel, but we still need to pay great attention to the possible variables.

Holding the pressure to achieve positive growth

"0.4%in the second quarter is not easy to grow." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told China News Weekly. Since the second quarter, my country's economy has encountered the impact of the epidemic of the new crowns of Omikon Rong, and Shanghai and other places have been implemented in many places. Static management, increasing the phenomenon of stopping work, suspension of production, suspension of business, and stopping the market, and economic difficulties are larger than in 2020.

Wei Xiang, a researcher and professor at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly that before the announcement of the second quarter of data, some institutions at home and abroad were worried about China's economic stall and even negative growth.

In terms of industries, the added value of the first industry in the first half of the year was 2913.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.0%; the added value of the second industry was 2286.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 304.868 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%.

Huo Fupeng, deputy director of the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that industry is the main body of the national economy, and the economic stability of the industry is stable. In the first half of the year, the effect of industrial stability growth has gradually emerged.

Taking the automotive industry as an example, in June, my country's automobile production and sales were 2.499 million and 2.502 million, respectively, with a month -on -month increase of 29.7%and 34.4%, respectively, an increase of 28.2%and 23.8%year -on -year. In particular, new energy vehicles increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, it sold 2.6 million units, an increase of 120%year -on -year, accounting for 21.7%of the sales ratio of new cars.

However, in the context of my country's GDP expectations this year, GDP increased by 2.5%year -on -year in the first half of the year, which means that the pressure in the second half of the year is not small.

Moreover, the added value of the second industry in the second quarter was 12245 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%, and its increase was much lower than the first quarter. This highlighted. Under the influence of the epidemic, the second industry also fluctuated.

According to a preliminary understanding of the National Development and Reform Commission to key areas, the current industrial production, investment, and expectations have improved, and the industrial economy generally shows a stable recovery trend, creating good conditions for the steady growth of the second half of the year.

Huo Fupeng said that in the next step, it will open up the point of card supply chain in the industrial chain, expand effective demand, strengthen the help of SMEs, coordinate and solve difficult problems in the operation of the industrial economy, and strive to maintain the stability of the industrial basis to stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy The market provides solid support.

"The Chinese economy has entered the repair channel," Yang Chang, chief analyst of China -Thailand Securities, told China News Weekly that including PMI indicators, social finance data began to restore, and increased medium -term loans of enterprises year -on -year, and the marginal improvement of residents' medium and long -term loans was improved. Show this signal. In the second half of the year, China's economy is expected to continue to rise, showing a trajectory that has rushed up.

Be wary of economic repair and disturb

Yao Yang, president of Peking University National Development Academy and director of the China Economic Research Center, told China News Weekly that the decline in my country's economy in the first half of the year was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on consumption and the difficulty of the real estate industry.

At present, the economic variables in the second half of the year still attract more attention with the real estate industry and consumption.

From the perspective of the real estate investment, the State Bureau of Statistics announced that in the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment was 6831.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 5.4%; of which, residential investment was 5180.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5%.

From the perspective of the sales side, in the first half of the year, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 689.23 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 22.2%; of which, the residential sales area fell by 26.6%. The sales of commercial houses were 6607.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.9%; of which, residential sales fell by 31.8%.

Wen Bin said that in the first half of the year, real estate development investment continued to decline, weaker than market expectations; sales improvement was limited, and it was still in the process of finding the bottom.

Since the beginning of this year, a series of favorable policies for property markets have been introduced one after another, including the central bank's lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan and LPR of more than 5 years. The concentrated release of the waves drives the sales end to improve.

However, since July, the transaction volume in multiple cities has fallen comprehensive. According to the monitoring of Krier Real Estate Institutions, in the first week of July (7.4-7.10), the transactions of first -tier cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou had rushed up and fell, and the decrease was as high as 41%and 60%. Qingdao, Hangzhou and other declines are particularly significant, reaching more than 70 %, and Ningbo, Chongqing, Dalian, and Wuhan also declined by about 40 %.

Wen Bin said that this is a pulse -type heating. The continuity and amplitude of real estate sales recovery are not strong. It has not fundamentally improved the capital status of real estate companies, nor does it reverse the weakness of real estate companies.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on July 15 that the national house boom index fell from 95.6%last month to 95.4%, at least the lowest level in the past five years.

Yang Chang said that from the perspective of real estate, the relaxation of real estate policies has been implemented one after another from fourth and fifth -tier cities to second -tier and third -tier cities, and subsequent first -tier cities still have the possibility of marginal loosening.

Yao Yang told China News Weekly that the real estate industry has a greater impact on the economic recovery in the second half of the year, and it is recommended to adjust some policies that restrict the development of the real estate industry. However, some analysts said that from factors such as house prices and demand, we must reduce the dependence of the economy to the real estate industry.

At the same time, Yang Chang believes that in the second half of the year, some uncertain factors in the second half of the year disturb the economic fundamentals, especially consumption. Because the preliminary epidemic is suppressed, it is conducive to promoting the economy to enter a state of repair. There is still a repeated possibility of the epidemic situation, which is possible to repair the consumption scenario and cause certain disturbances.

Wei Xiang said that the rebound of consumption is more sensitive. As the current epidemic prevention policy is more reasonable, the recovery of the service industry is worth looking forward to.

Yao Yang said that it is necessary to find a long -term epidemic prevention mechanism, such as unifying the national health code and lifting domestic travel restrictions.

Multi -party defending people's money bags

With the decline in economic growth, people's livelihood issues such as employment are particularly noticeable.

In the first half of the year, 6.54 million new employment in the country and towns across the country, and the average unemployment rate of urban surveys in the country was 5.7%. Among them, in April, the national urban survey rate was 6.1%; in May and June, it continued to fall, 5.9%and 5.5%, respectively.

Wei Xiang said that nearly 60%of the employment goals have been completed in the first half of the year. From the perspective of the total amount, employment shows a stable trend. Of course, the pressure of employment in the second half of the year is still relatively large, but from the perspective of the trend, it is still cautious and optimistic.

In this regard, Wen Bin said that the unemployment rate of urban surveys in June fell 0.4 percentage points to 5.5%, showing that the stable employment policy was effective, but the unemployment rate was still significantly higher than the pre -epidemic level, and employment pressure still could not be ignored.

In June, the unemployment rate of local household registration population survey was 5.3%; the unemployment rate of foreign household registration population survey was 5.8%, of which the unemployment rate of foreign agricultural household registration population survey was 5.3%. The unemployment rates of the ages of aged 16-24 and 25-59 were 19.3%and 4.5%, respectively. Compared with May, the unemployment rate of population aged 16-24 rose from 18.4%last month to 19.3%.

Wen Bin believes that the unemployment rate of population in the age of 16-24 continues to rise, showing that the unemployment of young people needs to pay more attention, which may continue to affect the consumption tendency of related families.

At the same time, in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country was 18,463 yuan, an increase of 4.7%over the same period of the previous year, and the price factors were deducted, and the actual increase was 3.0%. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 2,5003 yuan, an increase of 3.6%, and the price factors were deducted, and the actual increase of 1.9%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 9787 yuan, an increase of 5.8%, and the price factors were deducted by 4.2%.

This shows that in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents won the growth rate of GDP. However, people's money bags are also under pressure to increase expenditure.

On the one hand, as a whole, the basic expenditures such as food, housing and transportation are large, and the increase is large. In the first half of the year, the per capita food, tobacco and alcohol consumption expenditure of residents across the country was 3685 yuan, an increase of 4.2%, accounting for 31.3%of the per capita consumption expenditure; the per capita residential consumption expenditure was 2,807 yuan, an increase of 6.0%, accounting for 23.9%; the per capita traffic consumption expenditure was 1493 1493 Yuan, an increase of 2.6%, accounting for 12.7%.

On the other hand, from the perspective of specific CPI changes, in June, affected by factors such as some breeding household fences and increased epidemic demand for stability, pork prices continued to rise, with a month -on -month increase of 2.9%.

A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in response to irrational behaviors such as blindly selling the pig market in the near future, it was studying the launch of the launch of the central pork reserves, and guided the localities to jointly launch the reserves in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

Ding Yujia said that active policies will affect market expectations, alleviate people for sale, and farmers' outlets have become positive, and they are expected to suppress pig prices to continue to rise too quickly.

Author: Liu Debing ([email protected])

Edit: Li Zhiquan

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