Euro exchange rate innovation low exacerbates European economic difficulties

Xinhua News Agency, Frankfurt, July 15th (International Observation) Euro exchange rate innovation low exacerbates European economic difficulties

Xinhua News Agency reporter Shan Weiyi

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar has fallen by nearly 12%. On the 14th, the Frankfurt Securities Exchange fell below 1 to 1 in the US dollar exchange rate. In recent days, the euro exchange rate on the US dollar has fallen to parity. Analysts believe that due to the influence of the Fed's monetary policy overflow, the depreciation of the euro on the US dollar is intensifying the economic dilemma of the euro zone.

The continuous decline in the US dollar exchange rate is affected by multiple factors. It is mainly related to the stronger dollar, high inflation, the spread of energy crisis, tight geopolitical situation in Europe, and the risks of high -liabilities in Europe under interest rate hike expectations.

"Wall Street Journal" columnist James Mcingtos wrote on the 9th that whether it was the depreciation of the US dollar during the 2008 international financial crisis or the appreciation of this period, it proved that the Fed is the most influential cow ear in the market. The United States is winning this "currency war".

Analysts believe that the negative overflowing effects of strong US dollar and US tightening monetary policy are spreading to Europe and putting the economic pressure on the euro zone.

On the one hand, the strong dollar makes it harder to financing economies outside the United States.

The Federal Reserve has led the European Central Bank to raise interest rates several times, and the interest rate hike is greater, resulting in the flow of funds to the United States and the US dollar. Casten Bugski, an economist at the Netherlands International Group, said that the euro weakness and disadvantages of euro were greater than benefits in the case of geopolitical tension in the region.

Calt Shamoma, chief market strategist of Coppe, said that, given the unique position of the US dollar in the global financial system, funds flow into the United States for the reason for seeking income and risk aversion, and the main currency and secondary currency of the entire foreign exchange market Caused a serious impact. "With the appreciation of the dollar, we will see that the global financial situation is further tightening, and the US dollar will continue to call the wind and rain around the world."

On the other hand, the appreciation of the US dollar has made Europe's imported energy more expensive, and the effect of favorable exports in Europe is limited.

Sonia Laud, chief investment officer of Fatong Investment Management Company, said: "We expect that the European economy will decline earlier. Since the United States is an energy exporter, the euro zone country is an importer. Under the current energy price, the status of the two parties status It's very different. "

The German "Sunday Exchange" website states that although the depreciation of the euro is conducive to exports, in the context of the raging global epidemic, manufacturing is limited by the supply chain bottleneck, such as the chip shortage of the automotive industry is serious, which has caused the company's exports to be greater. influences. In addition, the global economic development is slow, and the demand for various countries under inflation is not optimistic about the booster effect of the depreciation of the euro on exports.

The German "Time" magazine commented that unlike Germany, the overseas sales of American companies have a much smaller economic proportion. At the same time, a strong US dollar makes imported goods cheaper, which has a suppressing role in inflation in the United States.

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