Why is it difficult to make a good company in the sinking market: starting from Pinduoduo and Taote to talk about

Author | Ye Jing

Edit ｜ Sang Mingqiang

Three years ago, at the Factering Mobilization Meeting of the Grand Mobilization, facing the pressure of Ali at that time, Huang Yan said: "Pinduoduo has no pressure, and it should be Ali." At that time, he was right. The GMV, which announced the latest quarter, has surpassed JD, and this breakthrough has been 2 years earlier than his estimated estimates the previous year.

After two waves of PC and mobile Internet, the Internet penetration rate of first- and second -tier cities has gradually become saturated. Data show that compared with the annual growth rate of 20%year -on -year year -on -year year -on -year, 540 million online shopping users in my country People, a year -on -year increase of 8%, which directly led to the high operating costs of large manufacturers: Ali, JD.com, and Vipshop's customer acquisition costs are as high as 180 yuan to 500 yuan. At the same time, how to keep existing users It is also put on the agenda by the player.

Main e -commerce customer acquisition cost comparison map source Guangfa Securities

Until the phrase "people in the five rings do not understand Pinduoduo", the sinking market has been ignored for a long time. The total area of ​​4 first -tier cities and 15 new first -tier area is less than 3 % in the country. This means that it means More than 97 % of the country nationwide cannot be seen by the "five rings" people: nearly 300 prefecture -level cities, 3,000 counties, 40,000 towns, 660,000 villages and 1 billion people.

In 2018, Pinduoduo went to the United States to go public. In the first three quarters, the number of active users in the first three quarters increased by an average of more than 240%in the same period. What is even more surprising is that GMV has exceeded trillion, JD.com has used it for 20 years, Ali has used it for 14 years, and it took 14 years. Less than 5 years. It was also that year, the Fun Touna logged in Nasdaq, with a market value of more than 6 billion US dollars. The daily living users of fast hand increased from 30 million to 100 million, and the number of old iron increased by 300 million years.

Where can I find new capacity? The answer seems to be near. The China Sinking Market Development Alliance once pointed out in a research report: The domestic digital economy industry has aimed at the market share of the first and second -tier cities. The first half of the competition has ended. The market share of rural areas.

From the "low -matching gathering" to the first competitor, the overspeed growth of Pinduoduo has made Ali re -examine the sinking market. Zhang Yong believes that "Taobao Special Edition is a positive supplement to the overall retail market platform of China." After Jiang Fan concurrently served as the president of Tmall, Ali announced that he had opened up cost -effective, snapped up, and sale every day. The old Ali who had previously been responsible for the data product Wang Hai, the Taobao special version corresponding to the front -end product Taobao special version.

The large manufacturers continued to fight in the sinking market, but the hidden concerns continued: Jingxi withdrew the city optimization, and the expansion of Jingdong Convenience Store was difficult to say. Quest Mobile had estimated that 78%of Taote users had a lot of compatibility with Pindu. This means that Ali and Pinduoduo must have a differentiated bareness in the stock. Tencent's little goose Pindu is also cool and silent, but than in person, the goose factory prefer to invest and provide traffic entrances to achieve sinking layout.

On the other side, the sinking three giants in the past also faced a shuffle impact. The market value of the fun head has decreased from $ 6 billion to about $ 30 million. With the disappearance of the magic power of "cutting a knife", the community group purchase, live e -commerce, and large agriculture are regarded as a transformation direction to deal with long -term losses, let alone the landscape of latecomers such as the collection.

For players, the change of the times has laid deep marks in the sinking market. People on this land have more intricate thoughts, cognition and living habits, and at the same time The huge value of Internet updates and reconstruction, this hot land still contains milk and honey, but it is obvious that players want to grow fruit here, it is not easy.

01 Go! Go to the sinking market

Although the sinking market was the hottest around 2018, before that, it was not a fresh concept.

Through keyword search literature, we found that the term "sinking" was first used in the home appliance industry. Since 2005, with the improvement of domestic economic and rural consumption capacity in the second- and third -tier urban cities in China, color TV companies have gradually faced the situation of overcapacity but domestic demand, and began to develop their attention from the breadth of the market to the market. Later , Actually, it is a strategic measure of industry sinking. However, due to the incomplete protection of the rural logistics system and after -sales protection, the low -end products are too concentrated, the channels of the home appliance chain in the third and fourth -level market are not sufficient, and the actual market share is also very low. For example, the manufacturer used to clean up the inventory and eliminate the entrance to the replacement product.

By 2009, Ma Yun began to deploy Taobao Village. After listing, the rural Taobao was used as one of the three major business sectors. Thousands of village -level service stations encouraged young people to return to their hometowns to serve as partners in the village to provide services such as purchasing and receiving parts.

According to the "China Taobao Village Research Report", in the 10 years after 2009, Taobao Village increased from 3 to 4,310, with 1118 Taobao town, covering a population of nearly 250 million. In the same period, in order to cope with the homogeneity of the first and second -tier e -commerce markets and reduce the loss of e -commerce, JD.com and Suning Tesco launched their own rural e -commerce projects and opened direct -operated stores nationwide. The logistics system built, but Suning, who started with traditional electrical physical stores, was obviously more integrated into the sinking market. But from the results, early e -commerce sinking was unsatisfactory. Taking Ali as an example, although Ma Yun's vision is "trading, payment, and logistics systems to rural areas to give birth to entrepreneurs to realize agricultural products." Only the downward of industrial products, and online shopping will destroy the local retail format.

In addition, in 2017, the "three links" of the website, APP and Taobao, Tmall's system, goods, and services of the rural Taobao unified the original independent rural Taobao app to the system of the goods and merchants into the big Taobao system. However, this does not meet the expectations of "high -quality high -quality goods to sink to the rural market, so that villagers can enjoy the same consumption and service experience as people in the city."

According to people familiar with the matter at that time, purchasing was the main job of partners, but the actual return was extremely optimistic. "Taobao set up a high threshold for agricultural products upward. However, if the platform is purchased and operated, the villagers will not get the value -added income. One or two goes, the villagers will not make money, the pilot is not enthusiastic and frequently close, and the support of the G end is naturally ebb. On the other side, JD.com ’s millions of convenience store plans will be resigned as first, and Du Shuang, the Xinchong Road Division, chose to leave because he was unbearable to“ target 500,000 convenience stores this year ”.

In the final analysis, rural e -commerce is difficult to do. The main reason is that the giants of the tall are not understanding the sinking market, the local consumption power is insufficient, and the consumption habits are difficult to change. According to data from the China Internet Network Information Center, as of the first half of 2018, the market sinking market The penetration rate of netizens also reached only 36.59%. For e -commerce platforms, they are still facing products, shopping experience and logistics when home appliances go to the countryside.

Until the appearance of Pinduoduo, the e -commerce circle ushered in the disruption. If it is said, "From social business to e -commerce to water, then from e -commerce to social business is Yuanmuqiu

fish. "The 35 -year -old Huang Yan discovered the potential of social e -commerce, and took the lead in launching a shopping model. With the help of the WeChat ecosystem of 600 million daily life at that time, Pinduoduo entered the first stage of marketing fission. One year was established, and the number of users exceeded 100 million.

When we re -enroll a lot of play, the topics that are unable to go around the culture and acquaintances are always unable to go around, and then break through the wide five -ring off -line market at a low price. Among them, low prices are just a means. The magic weapon lies in the insights of the sinking market, the social game -core gameplay, and the mobilization of the acquaintance relationship chain.

In the process of ordering, consumers will consciously help the merchant promotion in order to achieve the number of single people, and form a viral communication. Relying on cheap good goods and "cutting a knife" to buy and sell, Pinduoduo's strategies of "distributed AI" and "more affordable" did meet the needs of domestic market users at that time.

In fact, more than 600 million mobile users in the sinking market are usually more sensitive to prices. In addition, they have sufficient time, lack of entertainment resources, and strong profitability. feature. According to the long -tailed theory, for merchants, the most profitable is often the "idlers" who account for a large proportion of the total population, the level of income are average, but can bring huge traffic.

Taking Duoduo Orchard as an example, a fruit tree is usually mature for 3 or 4 months. In addition to planting trees, users can also obtain water droplets through games such as drawing and answering competitions. At the same time, they can increase interest. The functions are promoted, which essentially absorb more platforms for users' platforms and caters to their profitability.

As mentioned in the foreword, the rapid rise of Pinduoduo will push the sinking market to the giant dining table again.

In August 2019, Ali and JD.com successively released the new quarterly financial report. When the two performances reached a record high, the sinking market played a role that could not be ignored: Among the 20 million newly active users of Ali, 70 % came from underdeveloped areas; Xu Lei, a rotating CEO of Jingdong, said that the growth rate of users in low -line cities is higher than first- and second -tier cities. The ratio of low -line cities among low -line cities exceeds 70%, and the ratio of the sinking market among the overall users reaches 50%.

02 Folding the halberd in the sinking

"Say sorry to the partners, this may be our last Weibo." On December 9, 2019, Tao Ji posted an open letter entitled "Has Out of Responsibility" and officially announced bankruptcy.

Looking back on the development of this social e -commerce platform with a valuation of 800 million, it took more than 3 months to users from 0 to 130 million, and it was only 16 months from birth to bankruptcy. In the announcement, the founder Zhang Zhengping blamed the bankruptcy on the bankruptcy of the bank to lose his trust. From the collective debt collection of the merchant, the platform and the merchant forcibly signed the debt -to -equity agreement and the capital chain broke. Outside the ring was abandoned. Prior to this, the myth of Pindura's three -year listing has stimulated countless startups' rush to the sinking market. It is also a social e -commerce company that is a social e -commerce model in the fifth ring. It was favored by capital. "It has been missed to fight a lot, and you can't miss Tao Collection" was the slogan at the time of Tao Collection of financing. According to industry insiders, the Taota collection was in the VC circle of that year, and the fire did not even need FA.

But as Huitongda CEO Xu Xiuxian said, "the sinking market seems to be the sea, but it is actually a shallow sea. It is actually not easy to do." At the beginning of the establishment, the collection of collections, almost completely re -engraved the low -cost and social fission model, "One yuan market+earning+time -limited spike+bargaining free of charge+manufacturer's special sale" Welcome to the sinking market, although the platform commodity category involves the entire category of eating and wearing, the problem of poor quality has been repeatedly complained.

Obviously, Zhang Zhengping underestimated the complexity of the sinking market. When the user broke 100 million, he still thought it was not fast enough. From thousands of regiments, bicycles, online taxi, to takeaway, education, and group purchases, burning money is often a customary customer acquisition method for Internet companies. In the second half of 2019, if Tao Collection needs to continue to speed up, the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way is still the most direct way. Burning money and financing internally.

However, blind subsidies do not get equivalent user stickiness. Tao collection sets the user registration volume in exchange for the initial rough money. The user leaves after finishing the user. Low retention rate requires more money to get blood -transmitting.

Zhang Zhengping later reflected, "I made a great mistake, spent too much time in financing, and wanted to solve the current growth problem through this, but delayed my self -rescue." In just a few months, the losses of the collection reached 2 billion yuan. At the same time, the merchant repayment was used to eventually form a vicious circle of Yin Yin.

The special attributes of the sinking market have created a unique development environment for social e -commerce. However, in fact, the application of social socialization is limited to the way users will obtain red envelopes in the platform after sharing. Compared with Pinduoduo Duo Duo orchard, Duoduo Mining, Duoduo Travel, etc., lack of supply chain and ecological advantages Tao collection does not use the social characteristics of sinking the market.

Coincidentally, as one of the "Sinking Three Giants" who had been on the same place with Pinduoduo and Kuaishou, they used to use "watching news to make money" points to motivate the gameplay to kill the sinking market. Today, the market value has fallen into a direct look.

The reason for the birth of the fun head is the founder Tan Siliang who wants to make a content information product for the third -line and below urban population. Later, I designed the way to play games and do tasks. The fun headlines and the red envelopes and red envelopes are familiar with the red envelopes. In his opinion, the players who play the game and the people who make red envelopes in the fun head of the news have some common characteristics: they like to participate and enjoy the game. This view coincides with Huang Yan, but the fun headline is not as lucky as fighting.

In the past, Tan Siliang believed that there was still a lot of room for release in the entertainment time of people, and it has not yet been released. But now the content platform is rapidly iterating. Fun headlines are not comparable to today's headlines that bless byte blessing. Time has moved, and the time of sinking users is more spent on short video platforms such as Douyin Kuaishou. The author, chose to directly drive the author out of the platform.

Although relying on the "pig farming theory", Fun head has become the winner of capital and market, but in the end, it also paid the price due to such a mentality and arrogance. In 2021, the revenue of fun heads was slightly slightly, with an average loss of 323 million in the first three quarters. Tan Siliang attributed the reason to "affected by the macro environment and the pressure of the Internet advertising industry." Even if the diversified product matrix is ​​deployed later, the water test information, games, short videos, and novels are unable to return to heaven. Today, the only rice reading is passed on to the reading.

The tide rises and the tide, the collection of collections and fun headlines gradually disappear into people's sight. They are not the first batch of Internet companies in the market, nor will they be the last wave.

03 Market Sinking 降 Consumption downgrade

"No one in material consumption will take the initiative to consumption to downgrade." In a interview, Huang Yan denied the label of Pinduoduo's "five -ring outside users" and "consumption downgrade". It is because the depth of the Chinese market is too large, and the difference between upstream and downstream is very large; on the other hand, benefits are universal demand -just like his mother bought the iPhone, it will also care about the gap between one or two dollars.

Low prices have always been misunderstanding of the sinking market. Although it is one of the important factors affecting consumer decision -making, the price is not a long -term or unique way to determine the victory and losses. In the end, it is often the cost -effectiveness of this product and the final service quality. From the perspective of the real user, e -commerce itself has the "consumption upgrade" composition.

Taking the sales model as an example, the traditional distribution model is used as the mainstream sales model of sinking markets. For example, fresh products must be gathered by the buyer of the origin, and then at least two layers of wholesalers turn on to reach the retail terminal distribution of supermarkets and vegetable markets. Business, eventually reached consumers. The middle cost is high, and most of the products in the market are always low -priced and low -quality. The emergence of e -commerce platforms can make brands and consumers directly touch in the way of consumption, guide suppliers to provide high -quality products, and shorten the value chain from supply to consumption. At the same time, the characteristics of sensitive price make users in the sinking market pay more attention to the cost -effectiveness of the products, and the traditional sales system cannot meet people's pursuit of cost -effectiveness, and the imbalance between supply and demand is promoting a change in the production and sales model.

In the past few years, e -commerce players have deeply cultivated the sinking market through the form of burning money subsidies, but the bleeding of the demand side has not made up for the poor information between the terminal and the upstream, nor does it form a scale economic effect under both ends. Falling in a state of long -term losses.

In 2019, Ali Vice President Wang Hai made a request to CEO Zhang Yong to make a 600 million Sinking market C2M. In the second year, Taote went online to upgrade from the factory to the three consecutive direct supply of factories, origin, and brands. The goods covered the whole product category. The users broke 300 million in 2 years. Since Zhang Yong took the stick Ma Yun, he has regarded "becoming a consumer Internet and a better company in the industrial Internet" as Ali's future direction, and Taote has naturally become an expected carrier.

From the perspective of the supply model, Taote is not much different from Pinduoduo. It simplifies the channels of commodity circulation and seek direct supply upstream. Not its main business model. Relying on the long -term supply chain advantages accumulated by Ali's B2B e -commerce, at the beginning of the establishment of Taote, it was affiliated with the B2B business group. Over time, on the one hand, the overall advantage of the Tao e -commerce company, on the other hand "Taote 100" two new new product incubators, these can accurately help the mass production of cost -effective products.

As mentioned in the report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: the new trend of "special economy" set off by the factory direct sales platform represented by Taote is not only an important driving force for the recovery of the industrial factories, but also a new channel for digital transformation of small and medium -sized enterprises in the industry. After missing the opportunity to sink the market, Ali may be able to obtain more right to speak in the sinking market with Taote.

04 is easy to down, but it is difficult upwards

In 2020, Huang Yan said at a financial report that when the platform users were close to 1 billion, it was meaningless to distinguish between low -line cities and first- and second -tier cities. This means that the main battlefield of Pinduoduo has shifted from blocking Ali's gathering and Taobao special ecosystem to the entire ecosystem of Taoism and Beijing.

For the platform side, there is no future for low -end cheap products. With the increase in customer acquisition costs and the expansion of the size of the merchant, Pinduoduo, who has been sinking, needs to grow upwards. From the establishment of the 10 billion subsidy working group to enter the first and second -tier cities, to the beginning of the brand's expansion of the brand expansion brand, promote traditional distribution For the transformation, the brand's high -quality unit price has become the main object of Pinduoduo.

According to the "Late" report at that time, in Pinduoduo's combat system, 10 billion subsidies served as a pioneer, and quickly entered new users in the first and second -tier markets with subsidized brand products to increase customer unit price; while in the rear base, Pinduoduo We are increasing the frequency of transactions through multiple means and increasing user stickiness. At the same time, in order to improve the characteristics of organizational cultural closedness and lack of cadre training systems, in the organization, Pinduoduo gradually improved its own talent training system and assessment plan to show the determination of the platform to explore.

However, it is actually not very optimistic about the brand's entry into Pinduoduo. According to the financial report, Pinduoduo stems from the tens of billions of subsidies in 2020. The per capita consumption amount of the platform increased from 1551 yuan to 2115 yuan, but this number was less than 1/3 of JD.com and 1/4 of Taobao.

For a long time, the marketing model of Pinduoduo goods instead of the store, and most of the brands participating in 10 billion subsidies are not genuine officials, but mainly based on providing low -end products. On the other hand, they are consumed The influence of the perception of people, they are also keeping a certain distance from Pinduoduo.

In this context, the solicitation of the brand has become a major event. Some media reports that the Pinduoduo General Merchants team once exceeded 400. In addition to the brand investment and white brand investment promotion, the internal horse racing of the brand investment promotion team in the industry was very fierce. Under this mechanism, especially for the very few brand categories, the competition between different investment promotion teams will cause waste of resources and affect the efficiency of investment promotion.

It is easy to go down and difficult, which is almost a consensus in the industry, not only to e -commerce, but also the content platform. In the early days, it was relying on the old iron to hit the river and mountains. The public's impression that it was difficult to change its soil smell. Although this is not the constant label of the fast hand, as a content platform based on the community ecology, the molting of the fast hand is not easy.

After a period of time of head star cooperation and the adjustment of push rules, the content of Kuaishou has become more and more like Douyin. Although users in first- and second -tier cities are constantly increasing, the penetration still cannot reach the sinking occupation of Douyin's sinking occupation. The latter's scale itself is even larger. In addition, both sides are exactly the formats designed by the third -line and below market as the target market.

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