Hunan has many places in the market, why do real estate developers still not buy land?

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Li Yonghua | Hunan Report

"May 5th, frozen yellow cow." The saying that Hunan is described as the real estate market in local third- and fourth -tier cities is just right.

"I didn't hear that the company had a plan to get land in Yueyang recently," said a salesperson of Country Garden.

In August last year, Yueyang issued a "limit order". However, it still failed to stop the downward trend of the market. Yueyang Real Estate continued to cool down from new houses to land auction. This is just a microcosm of third- and fourth -tier cities.

Country Garden is a representative of real estate companies in third- and fourth -tier cities. In 2021, the investment in the first and second -tier cities of Goldland Group accounted for 65%.

Kerry's monitoring data shows that in May, the construction surface of third- and fourth -tier cities was 52.82 million square meters, a decrease of 6%month -on -month and a decrease of 56%year -on -year; the transaction value was 99.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 5%month -on -month, and a decrease of 65%year -on -year.

Aerial photography Hunan Yueyang

Many places have policies to support the market, but developers still don’t buy land

As one of the 70 large and medium cities of the National Bureau of Statistics, the Yueyang property market is not the worst. Since 2011, on the price sheet of 70 large and medium -sized cities across the country, the prices of new houses in Yueyang Hunan have ranked among the top three times.

In February 2018, the price of Yueyang's new house exceeded the "7". It was far ahead of the 14 prefectures in Hunan, second only to the provincial capital of Changsha. However, in July 2021, in the 70 cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics, Yueyang's new houses fell the number one in the country from the previous month, down 0.7%from the previous month.

In August last year, Yueyang issued a "limit order" in the property market and required the actual transaction price of commercial housing sales after the sales price of new commercial housing sales was required to be fixed than the filing price, nor should they be lower than the record price. The system prompts that it cannot sign a contract to sign a contract online; after the new commercial housing sales price is recorded, the development enterprise does need to re -adjust the filing price, and before 6 months, you can apply for adjustment.

Yue Yang has been at the forefront of the recent round of "limited falling" operations. Since then, the "Limited Order" has been introduced in many places across the country. According to media statistics, in the first five months of this year, 21 cities in the country have issued a "limit order". Most of them are three, fourth and fifth -tier cities, but there are also two provincial capital cities, Shenyang and Kunming.

However, this failed to stop the downward trend of the market. Yueyang Real Estate continued to cool down from new houses to land auction.

In this context, on May 1, Yueyang's real estate rescue policy has been upgraded -upper house purchase subsidy is up to 200,000 yuan, tax subsidy is 50%, and the minimum down payment ratio is 20%.

For developers, Yue Yang also took out a full -scale policy "dry goods": the minimum percentage of residential land auction margin was reduced to 20%of the listing price. In addition, Yueyang also stipulates that the progress of the image of the multi -storey building has reached one -third and above, and the progress of high -rise buildings has reached one -quarter or more buildings. This means that developers can get pre -sale funds faster.

Yueyang has a big movement, but the land market does not stand up. According to Yueyang City Public Resources Trading Network, from May 1st to June 7th, only 5 commercial and residential land were traded in Yueyang and its subordinate districts and counties, with a total turnover of 266 million yuan, of which private enterprises contributed 16.54%.

In addition to Yueyang, other cities that launched the real estate city policy have not improved. Changde launched a series of real estate stimulus policies on April 20, and its strength was not weaker than Yueyang. However, in May, Changde and its county and county commercial and residential land were sold for a total of 7. Six were supported by Changde's local state -owned enterprises, and both were sold in the reserve price. Some local developers of Changde admit that they still dare not get land according to the current land price, because "it is not possible", that is to say, it does not make money by taking the land development project. If the land price is reduced and the profit space occurs, the developer can get the land.

Real Estate companies divide red and green stalls in various cities, and head companies have withdrawn from the third and fourth lines

This time. A few years ago, the third and fourth -tier cities were the hearts of major housing companies. More than 90%of Poly Real Estate's newly entered in 2017 are third- and fourth -tier cities. Evergrande and Country Garden have long adhered to third and fourth -tier cities, and development projects have blossomed nationwide. Some real estate companies also require companies to sink to blank prefecture -level cities within the jurisdiction and their subordinates, and their subordinates, the county -level cities, counties, and developed towns (towns with a population of more than 10,000 people). "Full coverage" of the line city.

Facing the Great Gold Lord who claims to invest tens of billions of dollars, all places are naturally applauding Evergrande and Country Garden. Two years ago, the Yueyang Evergrande Valley project claimed to invest tens of billions of yuan.

Deep cultivation of the third and fourth -tier cities supported the large -scale volume of Evergrande and Country Garden. Country Garden's 2021 data shows that Country Garden's sales from third- and fourth -tier cities accounted for 68%.

The leading real estate company sank, and once ignited the property market in various places. According to Jiangxi Ganzhou, Hunan Huaihua, Changde, Shaoyang and other places, they told the reporter of China Economic Weekly that leading enterprises often make large and large projects, sell land at high prices and sell buildings, and directly increase local house prices.

According to the China Index Research Institute, the land acquisition area of ​​50 real estate companies in third- and fourth -tier cities in 2017 increased by 145%year -on -year, and the floor price increased by 53.9%year -on -year.

As the so -called Cheng also Xiao He is also Xiao He. With Evergrande's huge volume in Yueyang, once its price cuts, it has pushed the Demono card.

"China Economic Weekly" reporter reported that in June 2021, the average price of the nation's Henglong Building was 7802 yuan/square meter, which was the lowest price of Evergrande's products in nearly 60 months. In the Yueyang market, the three Evergrande real estate in Yueyang Evergrande Washington, Yueyang Evergrande, and Evergrande Future City also reduced the price significantly in June. In the end, the three projects signed a total of 809 million yuan in the month of the month, which was far ahead of various real estate companies, and directly caused Yueyang's house prices to fall back to 7,000 yuan/m2.

In May 2022, the reporter of "China Economic Weekly" learned from relevant persons in many places such as Yueyang, Changde, Zhuzhou, Shaoyang and other places that the leading real estate companies basically have no land acquisition plan. Instead, just ask for the cage funds. Next to the Yueyang High -speed Railway Station, the price of the end of the real estate house fell below 4,000 yuan/m2.

This phenomenon is not limited to third- and fourth -tier cities, and even some provincial capital city real estate markets are difficult to enter the eyes of housing enterprises.

Lin Zhi (a pseudonym) of the marketing leader of a central enterprise developer Hunan Company told the reporter of the China Economic Weekly that its group divided red and green files in various cities, and was included in the red cities, such as Nanchang, Jiangxi. Land; cities listed as green stalls, such as Changsha, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc., will increase their efforts.

Lin Zhi introduced that when considering investing in land at the headquarters level, "it will be placed in the nationwide, instead of looking at a place in a local city", so it is unlikely to go to third- and fourth -tier cities to pick up land, and its group groups. There are some investment standards in the inside, such as "cities with house prices less than 8000/m2 do not enter, cities with net population outflows, and cities with downward price prices do not enter."

The red and green stalls are imitated by the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission in August 2020 for the "three red lines and four -gear management" methods launched by housing companies. According to different financial indicators, housing companies are divided into four gear of "red, orange, yellow and green". The "three red lines" include: the asset -liability ratio of housing enterprises after removal of pre -collection shall not be greater than 70%; the net debt ratio of housing companies must not be greater than 100%; the short -term debt ratio of the cash debt of housing companies is less than 1. The scale of "red file" housing companies must not increase the interest liabilities, and the annual growth rate of "orange files", "yellow" and "green files" and "green files" shall not exceed 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively.

According to comprehensive indicators, it is not a way to draw files in various places, and the managers of another green state -owned state -owned enterprise also have similar claims.

Danke's Board Chairman Yu Liang said at the 2022 annual meeting of Vanke that in the face of market differentiation and atrophy and very limited profits, Vanke must change from a uniform and decentralized investment to the market. Local intensive investment. If some places do not do well, it may be necessary to build a system to revoke and take back the number.

Under the severe market situation, first -tier cities and new first -tier cities are more popular with housing companies.

On April 12, Changsha ended the first round of soil shooting in 2022. Of the 22 plots, 19 were sold in 19, and 3 premiums. What's more, in recent years, there have been 1 land fuse of the hot sector and Yanghu. In addition to local state -owned enterprises, China Sea Real Estate, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Construction, CCCC Real Estate and other central enterprises, Xuhui Holdings, Goldland Group, Hunan Yunda Industrial and other private enterprises have also played on the court.

On June 1, the first day of the resumption of work in Shanghai, we ushered in the first round of concentrated soil shooting in Shanghai in 2022, with a paid of nearly 50 billion yuan on the same day. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the enthusiasm of housing companies in Shanghai continued to rise. On June 6, Shanghai continued soil auction and transferred 4 land, with a total turnover of 10.551 billion yuan. Among them, 5 bidders competed for a land in Minhang District. After 38 rounds of bidding, Xiamen Jianfa International and Zhuhai Huafa shares shares The consortium was won. Other bidders also had leaders such as Shanghai Poly, China Railway Construction, Yuexiu Real Estate. The plot eventually "top" transactions, the floor price of 50572.53 yuan/m2.

(The request of the interview object, Lin Zhi is a pseudonym)

Responsible editor | Guo Yiyao

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