The price of gold almost fell below $ 1700. Can I keep interest rate hike again?

In June, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3%month -on -month and 9.1%year -on -year. In 2022, the United States inflation rushed from 8%to 9%, and once again refreshed the record in 40 years. President Biden also said for this, saying that inflation risk is the most urgent issue in the US economy.

The international gold price fell to support for $ 1,700 from $ 1,800 within several trading days.

Text | "China Gold News" reporter Jiao Yang

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

1

Gold price trend technical analysis

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The soaring CPI data makes the market further convinced that the Federal Reserve will not be less than 75 basis points in the next rate of interest rates, or even 100 basis points. The gold price under the expected rate of interest rate hikes continues to be under pressure.

Independent analyst Lu Chao believes that since mid -May, US economic activities have expanded moderately, and many economies have expressed concern about the increase in the risk of recession. The market's expectations of the Fed in July 75 basis points reached 100%. The world's largest gold trading open index fund (ETF) continued to reduce its holdings of 1.74 tons of gold, the 13th consecutive reducing holdings.

The gold market fluctuates fiercely, and the price of gold shows a typical falling and then rising market. On the eve of the announcement of CPI data, the price of gold fell rapidly, but then we ushered in a positive buying push for pushing power, quickly recovered the decline, and set a new high within the day. Finally, a long -term yang -phenomenon body was collected. After showing a long and short fierce competition, the final short -term long -term advantage was obtained. This is the first day of the first day in the past for a week in the past for a week.

Does this mean that the market is going to reverse? In terms of technical form, it may indeed give people this illusion. But it is not a big market reversal signal. First of all, the gold price was explored to nearly $ 1700/ounce. There are indeed a certain profit for profit. In just 7 trading days, the price of gold has fallen huge, and the use of major news to land and liquidate. The rapid rebound rebound is a typical short profit, and the closing positions are caused by the replenishment of a large number of medium and long -term multi -long entry.

In terms of technical form, although the daily K -line shows multiple and short divergence expansion, the downward trend has not changed significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the 40 -year high of the United States CPI innovation in June means that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates sharply to suppress the unacceptable level of inflation, which is long -term prosperous for gold. At present, it is a key time window that focuses on technical aspects. The short power needs to continue to consume short -term bulls near $ 1700/ounce. This means that many shorts are repeated in the range of 1700 ~ 1750 US dollars, and market emotions need a process of re -balance.

As of press time, after the opening of the Asian market today, the price of gold is declining, indicating that the market has a large difference in the data and market trend of yesterday. This means that the short -term and multi -short parties are still in a general state of evenly, and the price of gold will continue to oscillate repeatedly at the high and low range yesterday.

2

Gold price back market outlook

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Yu Jiasong, the Department of Green Dahua Industrial Agency, pointed out that the US June CPI9.1%and core CPI5.9%of the United States have exceeded expectations. It is expected that 75 basis points or even 100 basis points in the United States in July are also possible. This will continue to promote the US dollar index Raise, suppress the price of precious metals. In the later period, the crude oil prices that affect the biggest factors of inflation data have broken down. In July, inflation data will fall. At that time, the tightening of US monetary policy will ease, and the US dollar index will fall and support the price of precious metals.

Hong Jie, a national registered senior gold investment analyst, believes that the price of consumers in the United States in June has jumped 9.1%year -on -year, the largest increase in more than 40 years, deducting unstable food and energy, and the core consumer price index (CPI) increased to 5.9 %, This shows that the United States' inflation is still developing in the direction of the wrong direction, which has strengthened the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates at 75 basis points at the end of July, and it still puts great pressure on gold and silver short -term.

As of press time, the international spot gold price is around $ 1715/ounce. As a gold, as a golden hedge inflation risk goods, it is indeed difficult to satisfy investors. The rising American inflation allows the Fed to respond more aggressively, which makes the US dollar stronger against other major currencies, but compared to other currencies, gold performance is better. Although it is said that Lybuko is Lido, it must be noted that the Fed nowadays obviously has a desperate attitude to raise interest rates to control inflation. Under the operation that does not meet the rational expectations of the market, carefully copy the bottom and avoid the great price of gold prices. The risk brought by fluctuations.

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