"Bad Tailou Stop Loan" storm fermentation!The real estate stocks of banks are almost "destruction", and Ping An and Agricultural Bank of China have been sold

Zhongxin Jingwei, July 14th. The news of the rotten tail building caused a huge shock in the bank and the real estate sector.

Bank real estate fell together

According to Wind data, as of the afternoon of the 14th, the A -share bank sector fell 1.99%, 40 stock prices fell, and only two rose; the real estate sector fell 1.9%, 107 stocks fell, and 17 rose.

On the 14th, A -share banks opened low and low, and China Merchants Bank fell more than 5%. Bank of Chengdu, Bank of Ningbo, and Ping An Bank fell across the board. The real estate development sector fluctuated lower, Tianbao Infrastructure and Shenzhen Property once fell more than 8%, and China Communications Real Estate fell more than 5%.

In terms of funds, according to the statistics of the China Fund, 900 million yuan in the northbound funds in the morning, which is also the most deep city that is mostly pursuing the track stocks. Essence In terms of the main force, Ping An Bank and Agricultural Bank of China have exceeded 100 million yuan in net outflows.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Country Garden Services and Zhongjun Group Holdings fell more than 6%in the market. Longhu Group, Xuhui Yongsheng Service, and China Resources Vientiane Life once fell more than 5%. Inner bank stocks also generally declined, and postal savings banks and China Merchants Bank fell more than 4%.

Rotten Tower storm fermentation

And all this seems to be related to the "collective loan" storm of the bad tail building yesterday.

According to media reports, the owners of rotten tail buildings issued a statement in many places to force the suspension of repayment of loans until the relevant projects are fully resumed. The places involved include Henan, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Shaanxi and other provinces. According to data of Kerry Research Center, as of July 13, the number of mandatory loan real estate released by the owner has reached 106. Among the real estate involved, there are also "Internet celebrities" real estate that has attracted much attention from the market in previous years. Some real estate even "sunlight" at the time of sale.

According to media reports, under the "disconnection of the tide", banks with relatively large risk exposure may be Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank. In the first place, from the perspective of housing mortgages, the mortgage accounts for CCB, Postal Savings Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Bank. Minsheng Bank, followed by Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Everbright Bank. Overall analysis, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank risk are exposed.

Wang Yochen, director of the Beijing Gold Prosecution Law Firm, told the "V-view financial report" (WeChat ID: VG-View) that from a sense of perspective, and from the actual situation, in many rotten tail projects, it is difficult for banks to release loans in violation of regulations. Say about it.

However, Luo Xunwen, a partner lawyer of Beijing Yingke (Shenzhen) Law Firm (Shenzhen) Law Firm, pointed out that on the one hand, before the relevant departments investigated and obtained evidence, the owner accused the supervision of the suspected violation of the rules. The violations of banks should generally be held accountable by regulatory departments such as housing construction or finance. According to the principle of relativity of the contract, it is not possible to be legally become the reason why the owner does not fulfill the relevant provisions of the bank mortgage loan contract.

Has the fundamentals changed?

So, in addition to the impact of the above market news, does the fundamentals of the listing of banks and real estate stocks change?

In terms of banking stocks, the first batch of banks that announced the semi -annual report of 2022 reports, Nanjing Bank, Su Nong Bank, Hangzhou Bank and Wuxi Bank, revenue and net profit have achieved positive growth, and the growth rate of net profit has exceeded 20 %.

14 listed real estate companies disclosed the performance forecast of the first half of 2022. Among them, only five companies, ST Haitou, Xindazheng, Light Textile City, Shahe Co., Ltd., and Electronic City pre -pre -happy.

As of the afternoon, Tianbao Infrastructure, Deep Property A, CCCC Real Estate, Shenzhen Saige, and Golden Land Group, which led the real estate sector, only the two companies A and Shenzhen Saige disclosed the performance trailer.

Data show that deep property A is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 250 million yuan. Before the adjustment of the same period last year, it was 676.4 million yuan. The net profit after profit or loss was 256 million yuan, which was 670 million yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 61.78%over the same period last year.

Shenzhen Saige is expected to belong to the net profit loss of shareholders of listed companies of 22 million yuan, and the net profit loss of net profit after deducting non -recurring profit or loss is 26 million yuan, which is a profit from profit to the same period last year.

From the perspective of financing, the monitoring data of the China Finger Research Institute showed that in the first half of the year, real estate companies achieved a total of 482.55 billion yuan in non -silver financing, a year -on -year decrease of 56.5%, and a decrease of 26.4%month -on -month, but the decline has narrowed. With the marginal improvement of financing support policies, the financing model of housing enterprises has entered a new cycle. The Middle Finger Research Institute stated that in July and August, the second wave of debt repayment peaks during the year, and the balance of the monthly expiration exceeded 100 billion yuan.

Huatai Securities Research Report mentioned that the total amount of real estate financing is still shrinking, and the structural problems are prominent. The central state -owned enterprises and a few heads of private enterprises have resumed credit expansion. We look forward to transforming financing advantages into land acquisition and sales advantages. After the Qing Dynasty, it occupied a larger market share, and I also look forward to the introduction of more private enterprises' rescue policies. The resonance of policies and sales will appear in the third quarter. First, grasp the resonance situation, and then pay attention to the dilemma reversal enterprises.

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that sales in July weakened, indicating that the market recovery is unstable, and credit risks are far from resolved. It also shows that policies need to increase their efforts and intervene in the market.The interest rate of mortgage loans still has obvious room for decline. Due to the space for urban policy, it is still not small, and the delivery of issues, credit issues, investment issues, and land acquisition issues also means that the policy is willing to increase.We believe that more direct support for companies with difficulty liquidity; further due to urban policies, reduce the proportion of mortgage loan interest rates and down payment ratios; resolve rotten tail buildings and ensure delivery. This is the most important policy option that can restore market confidence at this stage.(Zhongxin Jingwei APP) (The point of view in the article is for reference only, does not constitute investment suggestions, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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