He Qing: How can China deal with the global energy crisis

Zhongxin Jingwei June 14th: How to deal with the global energy crisis

Professor of the School of Finance and Finance, Renmin University of China

Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine, Western countries led by the United States have implemented many strict sanctions on Russia in politics, economy, finance, energy, trade and other fields. Among them, sanctions against Russia's energy field have gradually set off a energy crisis worldwide since March, which has caused serious challenges to energy security, price and economic growth in all countries around the world, and caused a severe response in the capital market.

Western sanctions on Russia and global energy crisis

After the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Western countries had strong sanctions on Russia in the energy field. The European Union and the United States have banned technologies to Russia in the energy field, prohibit investment in Russia in the energy field, prohibit imported coal and oil from Russia, and the EU promises to gradually exit natural gas dependence on Russia. However, Russia's position in the energy field is very important. Although Western sanctions have hit the Russian economy, the prices of coal, oil and natural gas have pushed up the price of coal, oil and natural gas, which has impacted the energy security of the world.

In 2021, Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter, the second largest crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, and the third largest coal exporter after Indonesia and Australia. In 2021, Russia's average crude oil output was 10 million barrels per day, accounting for about 10%of global crude oil production. Among them, domestic refineries processed 5 million barrels per day, and crude oil was exported to about 5 million barrels per day.

Affected by international sanctions, Russia's crude oil export supply continued to shrink. Russia's crude oil in early April reduced production of 700,000 barrels per day, and it had expanded to 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of April. Starting in May, Russian oil has reduced production by nearly 3 million barrels per day. The expansion of the oil gap has greatly increased international crude oil prices compared to 2021. From about $ 80/barrel in early 2021, it increased significantly to up to $ 120/barrel. Although Russia's natural gas has not been officially sanctioned by Europe, leaders of major European countries have promised to gradually withdraw from natural gas dependence on Russia. This has led to a significant increase in European natural gas futures. In order to make up for the gap, Europe has imported a large amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year. And this behavior snatched the supply of LNG in Asia, which caused spot prices in the Asian LNG market to rise.

What is worrying is that the European energy crisis not only causes energy shortage and rising global energy prices, but also may further trigger a global grain crisis. At present, the tight and high prices of natural gas supply have also had a strong negative impact on the non -energy use of natural gas, especially for chemical fertilizer. Global ammonia production raw materials come from fossil fuels, of which 72%use natural gas as raw materials. From September 2021 to March 2022, the price of urea rose more than doubled, and sanctions on Russia made the supply of fertilizers and future crop output further tense.

In terms of the capital market, we divide the index component stocks of major countries around the world in accordance with the industry. Due to the rise in the price of oil and gas, the sharp profit of energy companies has made energy stock income leading in various industries.

The impact of energy crisis on specific regions

The global energy crisis first caused a significant impact on Europe. The capital market in Western Europe has fallen sharply after sanctions, and the cumulative return rate has fallen by more than 10%. This is due to the close economic and trade relations between Europe and Russia, and Russia in the energy import structure of Europe occupies a dominant position. At present, 40%of the natural gas, 27%of oil and 46%of coal imports from the European Union are from Russia. For many European countries, Russia's energy is the largest source of energy supply in its country. Some countries rely on Russian crude oil and natural gas to rely on 80%or even 100%. Russia's rapid energy cutting seriously threatened European energy supply security. At the same time, the price of European prices soared, especially the energy part of the CPI, a year -on -year increase of more than 40%.

The global energy crisis also has a certain impact on China. First of all, China's capital market has also suffered a violent decline. According to our statistics, the cumulative yield of the stock market has fallen by nearly 15%since the sanctions. Although China -Russia economic and trade exchanges are not as close to Europe and Russia, China's energy dependence is high, especially crude oil and natural gas, with more than 70%and 40%of foreign dependence, respectively. For a long time, factors such as complex international relations, turbulent geopolitics, unequal regional premiums, and unstable transportation lines have caused a significant impact on the cost of imported crude oil and import channels in China. Often facing uncertainty.

At present, China is the world's largest net oil importer. The import volume of crude oil has set a record of 542 million tons in 2020, with a degree of foreign dependence of 73.6%. According to the latest statistics released by the National Energy Administration of China, in the first three quarters of 2021, China -Russia energy trade volume reached 34.9 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 34.3%of the total bilateral trade, becoming a "cockpit stone" for stabilizing the trade between the two countries. Russia has continued to stabilize the country's largest source of energy imports, and maintains the status of the second largest source of imported oil imports and the largest source of electricity imports. Therefore, the impact of Russia and Ukraine's conflict on oil prices and natural gas prices will profoundly affect China's energy costs. Although Russia occupies a certain position in my country's energy imports, in general, due to the diverse energy imports of my country, the sources of oil and natural gas are scattered, and China has not joined the Western sanctions on Russia. Essence How China responds to the global energy crisis

China should respond to the impact of the global energy crisis from the following aspects, including promoting energy trade, strengthening energy reserves, accelerating energy green low -carbon transformation, supporting domestic fossil energy supply, strengthening international policy cooperation, and supporting RMB energy pricing and settlement.

First, we must further promote energy trade. This includes promoting the growth of energy trade: By establishing an international consensus (the Group 20, OPEC+, etc.), international commitments are made to avoid export restrictions that lead to rising global energy prices and the import restrictions from developing countries; diversified import sources: Continue to reduce the proportion of a single country in China's energy imports, and avoid threatening my country's energy supply because of its political turmoil. At the same time, the proportion of energy imports in the country along the “Belt and Road” is enhanced to ensure the stability and safety of energy transportation; assist in stabilizing the situation in the region: actively mediate the parties of Russia and Ukraine conflicts, restore regional stability and peace as soon as possible, and calm the level of energy.

Second, we must strengthen energy reserves. This includes strengthening the strategic reserves of oil, maintaining the scale of national oil reserves with the total amount of oil consumption; encouraging social capital to participate in the construction and operation of petroleum reserve facilities; improve the ability of natural gas reserves and regulation; Construction of gas storage facilities; build a new mechanism for gas supply enterprises, national management networks, urban gas enterprises and local governments to perform the contract; carefully consider buying a large number of low -cost Russian oil. Affected by Western sanctions, Russian oil has implemented a large price discount on friendly countries to maintain its economic system operation. However, on the one hand, China Petroleum reserve facilities are limited, and existing facilities are close to full load operations; on the other hand, they have conflicts with the diversification strategy of Russian oil and PetroChina imports, which will increase the dependence of PetroChina's source path. Although the purchase of Russian oil is a business behavior, it will inevitably be involved in political considerations in Russia and Ukraine's conflict, which is not conducive to China's diplomatic attitude.

Third, accelerate energy green and low -carbon transformation. This includes promoting new energy power generation, coordinating the layout of photovoltaic power generation, comprehensively coordinating the development of wind power, promoting the green development of hydropower, and developing nuclear power safely and orderly; improve the status of biological energy, enhance the comprehensive benefits of fuel ethanol, vigorously develop cellulose fuel ethanol, biological diesel and biological diesel, biological diesel, , Non -grain biological fuels such as biological aviation kerosene and oil; vigorously develop the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen the energy interaction of new energy vehicles and power grids. The demand for charging and discharge of new energy vehicles and electricity dispatching, comprehensively uses policies such as Peak Valley electricity prices and new energy vehicles to charging preferential interaction with the energy of new energy vehicles and grids, reduce the cost of new energy vehicles, improve the peak and frequency adjustment of power grid, and secure Emergency response capabilities; promoting new energy vehicles with renewable energy efficient coordination. Promote the information sharing and integration of new energy vehicles with meteorological and renewable energy power forecasting systems, coordinate the collaborative scheduling of new energy vehicle energy utilization with wind power and photovoltaic power generation to increase the proportion of renewable energy applications.

Then, supporting the supply of fossils in the country must still be placed in an important position. This includes promoting coal safety and intelligent green development and utilization: strive to build a coal industry system for integrated, safe, efficient, and cleaning; promote the structural reform of coal supply side, improve the coal production capacity replacement policy, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and release high -quality production capacity in an orderly manner; improve Natural gas production capacity: Strengthen basic geological surveys and resource evaluation, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, industrial support, promote conventional natural gas production, focus on breakthroughs in unconventional natural gas exploration and development of shale gas and coalbed methane, promote the large -scale development of shale gas, increase domestic natural gas in China Supply; strengthen the basic geological survey and exploration of oil and gas foundation in key basins and waters, and consolidate the basis of resource continuity; do a good job of "decreasing and decreasing" and "improvement of harvesting" in developed oil fields, promote the stable production of old oil and gas fields, increase the capacity construction of the new zone, and ensure that the guarantee continues Steady production and production.

In addition, China must strengthen international policy cooperation. This includes promoting energy change and low -carbon cooperation, building a green Silk Road, deepening green capacity cooperation with developing countries, and actively promoting cooperation in the fields of wind power, solar power generation, energy storage, smart grids and other fields; In terms of upgrading and renovation, strengthen cooperation, promote international cooperation in nuclear power; strengthen scientific and technological innovation cooperation, actively participate in the formulation of energy international standards, and accelerate the international integration of energy technology and standards in China; promote the improvement of the improvement of the global energy governance system: operate well Relational cooperation platforms, do a good job of international energy change forum; under the guidance of relevant energy cooperation platforms such as China-Ah Ang, China-African Union, China-Central Eastern Europe, China-ASEAN, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Sustainable Energy Center, strengthen the United Union Studies, expand training and exchanges; strengthen cooperation with international organizations and mechanisms such as the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the International Energy Forum, and the Minister of Clean Energy, and actively participate in and guide in the United Nations and 20th. The National Group (G20), APEC, BRICS, and SCO Energy cooperation under multilateral framework; strengthen international cooperation in the field of energy to respond to climate change. Adhere to the principles of common but different responsibilities, promote Sino -US clean energy cooperation, deepen China -Europe energy technology innovation cooperation, form the energy sector to respond to climate change and promote green development, and promote the implementation of the "Framework of the United Nations Climate Change" and its Paris Agreement. Essence Finally, we must promote the level of RMB valuation in the energy field and help enterprises avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. This includes promoting the implementation of oil and gas -related projects in China and other countries: it can make full use of the advantages of the AIIB and the "Belt and Road" construction project, with the help of the country's intergovernmental capacity cooperation, to give the oil -rich country RMB loan to develop the economy, promote PetroChina -related related petroleum -related correlations, and promote PetroChina -related related petroleum -related related. Industry and projects landed to the greatest extent to maximize the target of petroleum signatures and RMB pricing settlement. At the same time, it actively attracts more influential large oil companies and international investors to participate in the Crude Oil futures transaction and other financial projects that participate in RMB pricing and settlement, reduce the risk of cooperative trade costs and exchange rate fluctuations, and expand the scope of RMB use. Actively and improve the infrastructure construction of the RMB cross -border payment system: continuously expand the channels for cross -border payment and settlement of RMB, improve the efficiency of RMB in cross -border liquidation, meet the needs of global RMB business, and provide a fair and good market competitive environment. In the process, it has focused on expanding the Calibula and settlement of RMB in the source of oil and the main imported oil sources and regions, providing convenient conditions for the return of the RMB to ensure that the use of RMB for oil trade and settlement and other trade and investment activities is smooth. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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