Daily True Gold | Focus on supporting the support of 1720 to 1700 US dollars/ounce interval

Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

On the week of July 4, the international gold price failed to keep the $ 1,800/ounce integer mark. The short force and the decline fell to a minimum of nearly $ 1733/ounce, a drop of nearly 4%. Although the risk of global economic recession is getting greater, the gold has failed to attract risk aversion funds in the short term. Instead, investors have chosen to have risen to a new high of nearly 20 years. Because many Federal Reserve officials have strengthened the expectations of 75 base points in July 75 base points in July The dollar is still relatively strong, and international gold prices continue to undergo pressure in the short term.

The expectations of non -agricultural employment data after the June announced in the United States in June last Friday have enhanced the Fed's expected expectations in July. At the same time, Fed officials have also expressed support for the Fed's 75 basis points in July. It is not difficult to see that the Fed is actively cooperating with Wall Street, using radical currency tightening policies, and at the expense of sacrificing the economy as a price to open a global harvesting model.

The Federal Reserve also needs to exceed the expected data to quantify interest rate hikes, and this time non -agricultural data can be described as sending charcoal in the snow. After the announcement of non -agricultural data, the market was worried that the Fed would raise interest rates of 75 basis points, and the US debt yields rose collectively, and the US dollar was once again boosted. However, the author also pays attention to the US 2 -year/10 -year US debt yield continues to be upside down, and the US economy decline signal has continued for many days, which means that the US economy is likely to decline.

In the mid -term, although interest rate hikes have a certain impact on gold, these eagle policies are expected to be basically fulfilled, and continuous global high inflation and geopolitical risks will still support investors' demand for gold. In general analysis, the disorder of the global commodity supply chain caused by the Russian and Ukraine conflict will still exist, and inflation will still be at a historical high in the short term. Even if the central banks are about to raise interest rates or have already increased their interest rates, the actual interest rate is still low. From a historical perspective, in the global stagflation environment, gold performed well, and far exceeding other assets, and the market outlook is still worth looking forward to.

Looking forward to this week, in addition to continuing to pay attention to geopolitics, the focus of the market will be announced in June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data and June retail sales data. The gold trend has a certain impact. Among them, the market is expected to accelerate from 8.6%in May to 8.7%in June.

From a technical point of view, international gold prices have recently stepped back to the mid -to -long -term upward trend line since 2018, and it can focus on supporting the support of 1720 to 1700 US dollars/ounce area. This week, more than 1765 US dollars/ounce can be paid to the water elixir, and the low -level oscillation will still be maintained under the maintenance; if it is effective, the market sentiment will be more than the air.

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