U.S. stocks Black Monday affects the world, can Big A hold up?Detailed explanation of securities fir

Zhongxin Jingwei, June 14 (Wu Xiaowei) Monday, the United States Time, the three major indexes of the US stocks opened low. The Dao Index has nearly 900 points, a decline of 2.79%; the S & P 500 index fell 3.88%, a cumulative decrease of over 21%from the new high within 52 weeks, and fell to the bear market. %, Key US debt yields have once again inverted.

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The three major European stock indexes closed throughout the board. The average price index of 100 stocks in the London Stock Market "Financial Times" fell 1.53%, the CAC40 index of the Paris stock market fell 2.67%, and the DAX index of Frankfurt stock market in Germany fell 2.43%.

In addition, as of 11:30 on the 14th, the major Asia -Pacific stock market also fell across the board. The 225 index of the Nikkei fell 1.86%to 26486.1 points; the South Korean comprehensive index fell 1.02%to 2478.92 points; the New Zealand NZX50 index fell 2.94%to 10603.72 points; The Australian S & P 200 index fell 4.75%to 6602.7 points.

Yan Xiang, chief strategy analyst of Founder Securities, pointed out that the reason for the plunge of U.S. stocks in this round is very clear, that is, a very unfavorable macro scene combination has occurred: the significant upward and economic growth of inflation and economic growth have continued to decline. The continuous upper inflation has made the Fed ’s interest rate hike more and more. The end interest rate of this round of interest rate hikes is expected to rise from about 2.25%at the beginning of the year to the current 3.25%to 4.0%. And not only the United States, the European Central Bank has also announced interest rate hikes for the first time in 11 years. At the same time, the market's concerns about the decline in the United States have become increasingly heating up.

The current American inflation rate is still soaring. According to the latest data, the CPI in the United States in May increased by 8.6%year -on -year and a new high of 40 years. According to the Wall Street Journal, Buckle and JP Morgan Chase have shouted, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates of 75 basis points this week.

CICC's harvest pointed out that the thrilling scene of the US stock market reappeared last night, and the decline expanded from last Friday, especially Nasdaq's decline in a large decline. It is essentially because the U.S. inflation data came out in May. The range of interest rate hikes at the interest rate interest rate in June may become a benchmark, rather than 50bp expected before, and the benchmark interest rate at the end of the year may rise to 3%or even higher. Even some expectations may rise to 3.5%-4.0% Essence

CICC's income pointed out that in the context of this rate hike expectation, U.S. debt interest rates have accelerated. After the 2 -year US Treasury bonds exceeded the 3%mark last Friday, it rose to 3.36%last night. 3.37%, the curve is flat again, and even in the 5-10 years, the 5-year US Treasury yield is close to 3.5%. The US dollar index also exceeded the 105 mark in one fell swoop, up to 105.22. Although many fluctuations and absolute levels are creating history, the level and rising speed of inflation in the United States are also creating history. Under such a rare economic and financial environment, you need to maintain imagination, and nothing is absolutely impossible.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in the latest report that if the economy shrinks, U.S. stocks will usher in a giant storm. Goldman Sachs expects that the income per share will drop to $ 225 in 2023, and the median value of the decline of $ 200 will be approached. The 14 -fold price -earnings ratio will reduce the S & P 500 index to 3150 points, which means that the index will continue to fall by 16% by 16% Essence

Lin Xiaoming team of Huatai Securities Research Institute mentioned that as of the end of 2021, the US federal government debt was nearly $ 3 billion. In May, inflation data continued to reach a new high of nearly 40 years. Essence This means that the monetary policy and fiscal policy of the Federal Reserve and the US government are extremely limited, and it is difficult to adopt the operation of wide currencies and interest rate reduction during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis to support U.S. stocks. U.S. stocks continued to decline last week without showing signs of stability. U.S. stocks may still have large uncertainties. They should be paid attention to prevent its further decline and even the performance of other global stock markets.

Ping An's first Zhongzheng Sheng team believes that although the market liquidity in the early stage of shrinkage may not be too disturbed, asset prices may still fluctuate. Since the Federal Reserve Interest Conference announced that it is about to open the scales in early May, the 10 -year US debt yield has risen to more than 3%, especially the actual interest rate of 10 -year US bonds has risen from 0.07%on May 4 to May 10th. 0.34%(and the actual interest rate of the 10-year US debt on March 1st is only -0.90%), which reflects the market's impact on further incorporation. During the same period, the US dollar index shocked at a high level of 103, causing the majority of non -US currency exchange rates to fall sharply. U.S. stocks have also appeared obviously, and the S & P 500 index fell to the key point of 4000. Therefore, from the perspective of the impact of asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinkage still cannot be underestimated.

Yan Xiang said that from the perspective of the impact of US stocks on the domestic market, there are three main mechanisms: First, short -term pessimism infection, this seeking has little impact now. Second, the United States has continued to raise interest rates and regulates domestic interest rates. Third, the stock market fell and the US economy recession dragged down the global economy.

Li Daxiao pointed out that the collapse of US stocks cannot be ignored on the global stock market, and A shares are also facing real tests. It is expected that A shares can accept challenges and stand up to pressure. Although the Fed's trend has influenced the world, my country's monetary policy is not synchronized with the United States. In the context of the Fed's strong contraction, my country's monetary policy is still in a loose stage to cope with the impact of the Fed's excessive contraction. Li Daxiao also mentioned that in a comprehensive, US stocks have fallen sharply into the bear market, which has a huge impact on the global market. It is not objective to say that A shares are not affected at all, but the decline is smaller, the influence is weaker, and the relatively tenacious is that it can be expected to look forward to it. of. After all, since April 27, market trends have changed, and investors' panic has begun to relieve. The policy of stabilizing the stock market is also increasing, after all, the policy factors of A shares are still highly valued.

On the 14th, the three major A -share index opened the entire line, and the Shanghai Index once fell below 3200 points. As of the afternoon, the Shanghai Index fell 1.6%to 3203.62 points; the Shenzhen Index fell 2.72%to 11672.73 points; the creation index fell 3.26%to 2463.59 points. Semiconductor, photovoltaic, lithium battery, military industry, automobiles, and Internet sectors have retracted.

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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