The price belt of thousands of dollars in liquor: 2 exceeded 80%, and the top 6 competition is expanding the fierce battle.

Production/company research room wine industry group

Text/Huai Liangyue

Recently, the well -known domestic brokers, Zhong Jin and Anxin, have released research reports on the price band of the liquor thousand yuan. This allows some Yunshan Fogm's liquor to have a competitive pattern of thousands of dollars. Finally, there is a roadmap that can be roughly referred to.

The specific data of these two reports are similar. According to the data statistics from Anxin, the price of thousands of yuan in liquor is a bit interesting in recent years: first, the competition in just 2 years has become fierce, and there are 4 newcomers. .Sz) Market share was greatly impacted; in the end, Moutai's 1935 came out of a huge variable. Junpinjiu and alcoholic wine (000799.SZ) were rising.

Anxin Research reported that "the threshold of the thousand yuan price band is higher than expected"; China Jinyan reported that "the price of thousands of yuan ushered in an opportunity for expansion." The company's research office believes that these two institutions are right. The key is that in this war related to comprehensive strength, those players, especially new entrants other than Mao Wuyan, will laugh at the end?

01. Epidemic disturbances, which high -end liquor transactions in the first half of the year have fallen below a thousand yuan?

In the past two years, with the hot sauce, many white wine, especially those so -called customized wine, the price is thousands of dollars per bottle, and it is not unusual for thousands of yuan. Called the hearing of the Fairy Dream of Dream.

Here, we only discuss a variety of about 1 billion transactions and the brand's national famous wine titles, which will not be analyzed for the time being, because the order is not enough and the popularity is not enough. The bottle of wine is sold for more than 10,000, and it is determined that it is a thousand yuan price with liquor. For the market, such transactions are not substantial.

Chart: The price of thousand yuan price products gradually enrich

Source: Company announced, today's wine price, CICC Research Department

An unquestionable phenomenon is that the epidemic disturbance in the first half of the year caused some high -end liquor, especially the prices of thousands of yuan, and the phenomenon of white wine was seriously crushed. The actual transaction price fell, and some varieties actually fell below 1,000 yuan.

Some netizens said: "Except for the online price, other guidance is of great significance. During the online event, Guojiao 1573 is 920 yuan, internal reference is 850 yuan, and 900 yuan can be easily bought by 900 yuan. Moutai 1935, very strong, sells for about 1300. "

According to the media Gangu Finance, under the impact of the epidemic, many liquors with a price of 1,000 yuan have been beaten back to their original forms due to lack of cultural accumulation, historical heritage and brand value, such as Diaoyutai Black Gold, Hengchang Burning Square, and Guojiao 1573 1573 Puwu and others have adopted the test, thus further stabilizing the price belt of 1,000 yuan.

In fact, under the disturbance of this wave of epidemic, the actual transaction price of Guojiao 1573 and Puwu also fell below 1,000 yuan.

At the shareholders meeting at the end of June, Lin Feng, general manager of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), revealed that consumers in 1573 and Wuliangye have exceeded 1,000 yuan, and only a few areas will be less than 1,000 yuan in retail. The wholesale price does not represent the transaction price of consumers. The source of the wholesale is mainly the supply of supply half a year and a year ago. Recently, it is a special case. The epidemic has made liquor consumption unbalanced across the country. Shanghai has been silent for more than a month, and the supply is mainly concentrated before the Spring Festival.

Lin Feng's words confirmed the above analysis from the side. However, the price belt of the thousand yuan is not to say that it must be more than 1,000 yuan. The company's research office believes that the price between 800-1500 yuan can be called a thousand yuan price belt, which is roughly the same as the definition of CICC.

02. Wuliangye has fallen by 12.5%in two years. What is the reason behind it?

Although the caliber of statistics may be different, the reports of Anxin and Zhongjin show that from 2018-2021, the proportion of Wuliangye's market in the thousand yuan price belt has declined. Taking Anxin Research Report as an example, in the two years of 2019-2021, the proportion of Wuliangye market has fallen from 70.6%to 58.1%, a decrease of 12.5%.

Objectively speaking, this decline is a bit surprising.

In the data of CICC, the proportion of Wuliangye's market has declined less than Anxin, and it was calculated by 3%according to income. Of course, no matter which statistics, it is still impossible to shake Wuliangye to bring a strong pattern at the price of thousands of dollars in liquor.

So, what is the reason for the decline in the market proportion of Wuliangye at the price belt?

Some netizens said: "Wuliangye is not affected, its competitiveness has not changed. The problem is that its own production capacity has not increased largely. Other wines are expanding production capacity, and it seems that its proportion is declining. The strongest brand.

In fact, the lack of high -end production capacity has indeed limited the development of Wuliangye in recent years.

According to the financial report, in 2021, Wuliangye wine products achieved a total of 61.732 billion yuan in operating income, an increase of 17.73%year -on -year. Among them, the annual revenue of Wuliangye products was 49.12 billion yuan, an increase of 11.46%year -on -year, and the gross profit margin was 85.59%. Obviously, Wuliangye's product revenue lags behind the company's entire alcohol product growth.

In addition to his own reasons, the proportion of Wuliangye's market in the price belt of the thousand yuan is declining, and the market share of other varieties is increasing, and the new entrants are also eating.

For example, in recent years, Luzhou Laojiao has focused on increasing the sales of medium and high -end products in recent years. Guojiao 1573 has become a super large item with annual revenue of tens of billions of revenue. Therefore, its market share accounts for 4.8%in the past two years. However, in CICC's research report, according to income, the market proportion of Luzhou Laojiao in the thousand yuan price band in 2021 was 13%, a decrease of 1%from 2018. In addition, the market proportion of high -end sauce at the price belt of thousands of yuan has risen rapidly.

The company's research room noticed that CICC and Anxin's statistical data on Qinghua Lang are relatively consistent, that is, according to income, its market proportion in 2021 is 7%. It can be seen that after decisive suspension of Honghualang's sales offensive, Lang Jiu Qinghualang has stood up at the price belt of the thousand yuan.

Chart: In the 2021 thousand yuan price competition pattern (by income)

Source: Company Announcement, CICC Research Department (Note: Here Wuliangye contains Pu and Wuliangye 1618)

03 and 4 new players entered the game. Who is the prices of thousand yuan?

From the Anxin data schematic diagram, it can be clearly seen that from the two years in 2019-2021, the price band market competition pattern has changed significantly. Simply put, in addition to the original four main participants including the original Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, Qinghualang, and Yanghemeng 9, 4 new players appeared in 2021.

These four new players are: Maotai 1935, Junpin Xi Jiu, Blue and Fresh 30 Revival Edition, and Drinking internally.

In fact, in recent years, there are thousands of famous wines that are priced in the market, as well as many varieties such as Sands Abstract, Guoyuan V9, Gujing Gong, Jiannanchun Oriental Red, Guotai Longjiu and other varieties. The brand's influence is not enough, and it is not enough to form a substantial impact on the existing competition pattern.

Among the four new players with relatively large transactions, Maotai 1935 has a great impact on the future of the market because of Maotai. In fact, after entering 2022, this new sales of Moutai also began to catch up. Lin Feng once said that from the current situation, Moutai launched the sales after 1935.

Cai Xuefei, a well -known analyst in the liquor industry, believes that the launch of Moutai 1935 greatly enriched the product choice of Chinese consumers in the thousand yuan price band. Considering the empowerment of the Maotai brand, and the mainstream price positioning of the 1935 thousand yuan price band, It does have a strong sales advantage in the national market, but it does not have a great impact on Puwu and Guojiao. The first is because the two are different. The second is that the target consumers are different. In fact, consumers are actually still There are certain brand preferences.

In addition to the Maotai 1935, the two of the wine ghosts and Junpin Xijiu can be described as rapidly rising. Among them, the market for Junpinjiu is as high as 3.6%, and the proportion of internal participation is 1.9%. In addition, the 30th rejuvenation version and Yanghemeng 9 of the blue and flowers accounted for 1.3%. From the data in 2021, these two still could not talk about the large volume. However, it is worth noting that the inventory of Hunan wine ghosts has increased too fast in recent years, and the inventory growth in 2021 has increased by 97.59%.

Regarding the future competition pattern of thousands of yuan with liquor market, CICC Research Report said: "After the batch price of leading wine companies has increased to more than 1,000 yuan, the price space of other products will be opened. · Internal reference or so on may be capacity at 900-1,000 yuan, the price of thousands of yuan is expected to expand. In addition, we think that Moutai's listing in 1935 will accelerate the price of thousands of yuan, but it may have a certain impact on the sauce wine thousand yuan products. Considering that the company is to maintain prices for maintenance prices We need to control the amount, we expect that the impact on the strong faucet in the short term is limited. "

Chart: Main product of thousand yuan price

Source: Company announced, official website, today's wine price, CICC Research Department (Note: The sales volume is 2021 forecast value, the price is February 2022)

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