Analysts look at the price of gold | Why are there mostly views that this week's empty gold price views?

Investigation by the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center shows that market participants believe that the possibility of golden prices this week is more likely.

Voting shows that 43%of readers this week watched the price of gold, 20%of the oscillating, and 38%empty this week.

Lu Jun

Chengdu Fengye Service Co., Ltd.

On July 4th, the international gold price showed a downward trend, with a minimum of $ 1732/ounce, and finally closed at nearly $ 1742/ounce. The weekly level received a large yin line, showing the four -month -old yin pattern, and fell below the upward support line formed since March 8, 2021. And as of last Friday, international gold prices have completely wiped out the increase in the year. From a structural point of view, short -term international gold prices will face further risks.

After the Minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting last week, the market has basically determined that the Fed will cut interest rates at 75 basis points in July. This triggered a rebate of bond yields ten years ago, and successfully returned to 3.1%last week. The strong higher rate of bond yields has formed a significant role in the decline of international gold prices. And in June, non -agricultural employment data in the United States still performed well, which made the market more convinced that the Fed's interest rate hike intensity was difficult to cool in a short time. On the one hand, the 10 -year bond yield of the United States has soared again, and on the other hand, the US dollar index is maintained at a high level of strong operation. This is the main factor that suppress the downward international price.

This week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be announced this week. This data has risen in May, which has led the Fed to temporarily change the plan to temporarily raise interest rate hikes 50 basis points, and finally open 75 basis interest rate hike models. At present, the market predicts that CPI data will continue to show higher in June, which is basically within the Federal Reserve. In other words, interest rates decided in July to decide the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates up to 75 basis points.

It is expected that before the Fed's July interest rate resolution, the international gold price is difficult to improve, and the probability of continuing to maintain pressure is high. According to the current trend of international gold prices, the short -term support is located at $ 1700/ounce and $ 1680/ounce after the decline. In the process of picking up, we need to pay attention to $ 1775/ounce. Only by successfully winning this barrier can we get rid of the current weak pattern.

Wu Di

Independent analyst

In terms of fundamentals, the growth of non -agricultural employment in the United States has slowed slightly in June, and the labor market remains strong. Data show that the United States has added 372,000 non -agricultural employment in June, far exceeding the expected 268,000 people, and it is inferior to 390,000 in May. This is not only the third consecutive time that non -agricultural growth has exceeded expectations, but also from 2 this year. The largest one has exceeded the expected one since the month. Regarding non -agricultural data, US President Biden said that the private sector has restored all jobs lost during the prevention and control of the epidemic, and increased employment on the basis of this. However, he predicts that as the state transitions to a stable growth, employment growth will slow down in the next few months.

From a technical point of view, last week's empty hair power, the price of gold broke down, and fell slightly to the minimum of $ 1732/ounce, which rebounded slightly, and the strength was weak. This week, it was adjusted to $ 1762/ounce. At present, the price of gold is running below the watershed, indicating that the short power still dominates the market trend, and the short -term shortness is still the main trading strategy. The support below pays attention to nearly $ 1711/ounce. If it falls below this position, the support is adjusted to $ 1680/ounce. Follow the upward aspects of the long and short watershed $ 1762/ounce. Around 1793 US dollars/ounce. It is expected that the oscillating may be large this week. Seeing that the transaction is strictly stopped. The above suggestions are personal views, for reference only!

Zhou Zhicheng

Guantong Futures precious metal researcher

Non -agricultural data announced in June announced on Friday was unexpected. Non -agricultural employment in the United States increased by 372,000 and expected 268,000. It was less than 390,000 in May. The biggest time. Not only that, the unemployment rate is maintained at 3.6%, which is in line with expectations.

The average salary per hour increased by 5.1%year -on -year, and expected 5%. After the announcement of non -agricultural data, the market is expected to raise interest rates in July 75 basis points of 92.4%, and the expectation of 100 basis points to raise interest rates is 6.4%. However, after the announcement of non -agricultural data, gold and silver basically maintained stability, and neither plunged nor rising. Traditional Eagle St. Louis Federal Chairman Brad in the Federal Reserve said supporting 75 basis points in July, Federal Reserve No. 3 figures, and New York Fed Chairman Williams said that the 50 or 75 basis points in July were correct. Bostek, chairman of the Atlanta Reserve in the United States, said that the non -agricultural employment report showed that the economy was strong. He fully supported 75 basis points at the late interest rate meeting later this month. On the whole, at the end of the month, the Federal Reserve's July meeting again raised interest rates at 75 base points.

However, the US economy cannot be said to be "very good", but also hidden concerns. Wells Fargo's investment strategy department said that there is no need to guess the time for the US economy, because the United States has fallen into a decline. The rich global market strategist said that although the US economic decline is now technical, consumption and employment have deteriorated significantly. The technical part is the first half, and the deterioration of unemployment and consumption will appear in the second half of the year. The Fed is fighting for its own reputation and high inflation. Economic deceleration and decline are already a secondary issue, but inflation has not clearly declined. This is a problem that makes the market disturbing.

Technically, the gold price of the gold price has harvested the large yin line. The overall price of gold price has fallen from the daily line, and the US dollar index touches above 107. Gold price resistance at $ 1763/ounce, $ 1,800/ounce, $ 1833/ounce, $ 1850/ounce. The support level below the gold price is at $ 1725/ounce, $ 1700/ounce, $ 1680/ounce, and the price of gold is intensified. This week, the price of gold is expected to oscillate between 1754 and 1700 US dollars per ounce. Due to the announcement of the US CPI and PPI data in June this week, the price of gold does not rule out more accident fluctuations.

Last week, the silver price also closed the yin line with upper and lower leads. The gold and silver ratio maintained 90.3 times, and the silver price daily departed. This week, the silver price is expected to oscillate at 20 ~ 18.6 US dollars/ounce. High throwing in the interval, fast inhalation, fast forward and fast out.

Hongjie

Register for senior gold investment analysts

From the perspective of the news, the non -agricultural data last Friday exceeded the expected expectations, which increased the expectations of 75 basis points in 75 basis points in this month. At the same time, employment data had a certain pressure on the increase in gold prices in the short term. This week, it focused on the US June CPI data.

From a technical point of view, last week, it was finally closed by the middle yin line. From a technical perspective, there is still a demand for further reduction in the short term, focusing on further news of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the US CPI data this week, focusing on the support of 1650 ~ 1680 US dollars/ounce area below. Essence Overall thinking this week: high altitude.

Shen Guofu

Wing Kun Holding Investment Research Center precious metal analyst

Last week, the spot gold price fell sharply by more than 4%, falling below the support of $ 1750/ounce. It is mainly affected by the unconditional anti -inflation worldwide. Last Friday, the United States released non -agricultural data in June. The data far exceeded expectations. The data strengthened the expectations of the Fed's 75 basis points in July in July.

From the Zhou K line, the gold price of the spot shows a decline in a decline. If it cannot be reversed in the short term, it will fall into a mid -term trend. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillations this week, testing the support of $ 1,700/ounce below.

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