The Federal Reserve ’s short -term interest rate hike path is steep, and the price of gold has fallen to the low point during the year

In the past week, the price of gold has fallen sharply, and the gold price of spot gold in London has fallen by nearly 4%, and the lowest point in the market has hit the lowest point since this year near $ 1731/ounce. In terms of related markets, the US dollar index has continued to rise to more than ten years, and commodities such as crude oil and colors have also fallen. state.

The recession of the Fed's short -term interest rate hike path, long -term short -term interest rate inversion is the main reason for the decline in commodity prices. For gold, the reasons for the steep interest rate of short -term interest rate hikes and the tightening level of liquidity may be more. Because according to previous experience, the price of gold usually performed the best during the economic recession cycle, and the recent Tedley (the poor of the London interbank borrowing interest rate and the national debt yield) remained near the high point during the year, showing that the liquidity of the market was Tightening.

Tedley

Wen | COFCO Qi Defeng Zhang Yingying

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

As of July 8th, the interest rate futures market of the Chicago Commodity Exchange showed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a meeting at the end of this month (July 27) from the probability of 75 basis points to 2.25%to 2.5%. The probability was close to 100%, and for the interest rate decision -making decisions in September, November and December this year, the current mainstream market is expected to raise interest rates 50, 50, and 25 basis points in this three conferences. The interest rate futures of the Chicago Commodity Exchange showed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the end of this month that the probability of 75 basis points exceeded 90%.

Recent data released by the United States shows that manufacturing, housing sales and consumption data have declined, and economic momentum has slowed down. The economic growth rate of the United States in the first quarter of this year was -1.6%month-on-month. If the second quarter was negatively growing, the US economy would fall into a technological recession.

However, the employment situation of an important decision -making basis in the Fed still released a certain recovery signal in the near future. In June, the number of non -agricultural employment increased by 372,000. Although it was slightly lower than the 390,000 last month, it was significantly better than the expected 268,000 268,000. People, and employment data of various industries are generally better. In addition to the employment of government departments decreased by 9,000, the construction and manufacturing industries such as sensitive interest rates such as interest rates, as well as leisure hotels, business services, etc. The number of employment has increased significantly.

The strong non -agricultural data is the Fed's short -term interest rate hike further the obstacles to the employment level. According to the experience of the United States from the late 1970s to the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve should not adopt a mild and slow interest rate hike policy in front of high inflation. The sooner the inflation is controlled, it may be more beneficial to the economy. In the process, the economic recession may inevitably inevitably decline To be the "cost".

Recently, the Gold ETF Fund SPDR has continued to reduce warehouses, but the funds of domestic Shanghai Gold Futures have not showed significantly. In terms of trading logic, the expected expected of the remote economic recession has a certain support for gold prices, and the flow of the US Federal Reserve has a significant rapid interest rate hike, which has a certain suppression of gold prices.

The author maintains the view that gold is mainly based on oscillating under the year, but it is optimistic about the performance of gold prices in the next 2 to 3 years. Although it is slightly on the left side of buying gold at the moment, it is still suitable for the strategy of dirty layout this year. Technically, the London Golden Line has entered the oversold range. The weekly -level swing indicators are at a low and close to the oversold range. The outer disk is 1700 ~ 1750 US dollars per ounce. In the second half of the year, the RMB exchange rate still has a depreciation pressure, which has further favorable for domestic gold prices.

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