Oil prices today or "two consecutive declines", No. 92 gasoline in some regions returns to the "8 yuan era"

Today (12th) at 24:00, a new round of domestic oil -based price -adjustment windows will be opened. Comprehensive institutions predict that this round of refined oil prices is expected to achieve a "two consecutive drops".

During this round of pricing cycle, as investors were worried about the slowdown in economic growth, the consumption of energy decreased, and international crude oil plummeted in a single day, and American Oil (WTI) suddenly fell below $ 100, and the largest drop in the market exceeded 12%.

WTI August crude oil futures trend. Source: Wind

Since then, due to inventory data shows that the United States will increase by 8.235 million barrels from July 1st, the week of EIA crude oil inventory will be reduced by 10.43 million barrels, and US oil rebounds again and returns above $ 100. As of the early morning of July 9th, Beijing time, WTI rose 2.06 US dollars in August, an increase of 2.01%, to $ 104.79/barrel, which fell 3.36%. %, Reported at $ 107.02/barrel, fell 4.13%.

Zhongxin Jingwei has noticed that since this year, the price of domestic refined oil products has been adjusted twelve rounds, cumulative "ten rises and two declines", gasoline prices have increased by 2,400 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have increased by 2310 yuan/ton. Because the price of the domestic refined oil in the previous price adjustment window ushered in the second time the year was reduced. If the implementation of this time, it will usher in the "two consecutive declines" of oil prices, that is, the third time during the year.

According to the calculation of Zhongyu Information, as of July 11, Zhongyu crude oil is valued at -3.95%compared with the base price, and it is expected that the retail price of refined oil on July 12 will be reduced by 340 yuan.

Golden Lianchuang's calculation shows that as of July 11, the change rate was -4.34%, the average price of reference oil was $ 107.72, and domestic gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 340 yuan/ton. Because there is only one working day left at the price adjustment window, the drop may be 370-400 yuan/ton, and the price increase is about 0.3 yuan.

Kim Lianchuang pointed out that with the implementation of the price adjustment, except Haikou and Tibet, 92#gasoline will bid farewell to the "9 yuan era". Calculated according to the capacity of 50 liters of fuel tanks for ordinary household vehicles, adding a box of oil or spending less than 15 yuan.

Regarding the reasons for this round, Longzhong Information believes that the main influencing factors include: the safe -haven demand of U.S. Treasury bonds has promoted the significant upward of the US dollar, and the US dollar index has reached a new high in the past 20 years; It is said that the price of oil at the end of the year may even fall to $ 65/barrel; Citi Group predicts the growth of crude oil demand by about one -third.

In terms of market markets, Zhongyu Information believes that global supply risks are still accumulating, Russia's passive or active reduction of crude oil supply is still large, and the short -term market may continue to rebound and repair. The probability of returning high in the early stage is already small, and it is expected that the price of oil in the next cycle will fluctuate above $ 100.

Kim Lianchuang also believes that after the experience of the international oil price, the two consecutive trading days rose in the later period of last week. On the whole, the crude oil is expected to return to the trend of the shock, and the new round of change may still maintain a negative start.

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

Source: Zhongxin Jingwei

Edit: Weekend

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