Adopting a cow, a new consumer "believers" or "traitor"?

In the eyes of investor Wu Xiaobo, the growth of a cow is like a jumping frog.

In the book "The New Chinese Store in this Country", Wu Xiaobo quoted the Nobel Prize winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Paul Robin Cruggman's jumping frog model describing this emerging dairy company -crossing the traditional path, starting with high -tech as the starting point , Quickly catch up with the faucet, as if jumping frogs jumping up. This is used to describe the growth style of adopting a cow -distinguish between traditional dairy companies, but the momentum is extremely fast.

In the hearts of more consumers, adopting a cow net red flavor, the brand's origin has a male frequent style -a milk child's heart -hearted dad, who purchased foreign milk powder from Hong Kong and was detained. The ranch, buying the best cows from abroad, vowed to make the best milk powder in the world.

But Shuangwen is not a reality. The product that is truly available to adopt a cow is not milk powder, but the pure milk that is most suitable for measuring online. After five years of milk powder, the production line is not independent. Yuan is not all the "top cows" of its own ranch, but fresh milk acquired from multiple dairy companies. Of course, there are a certain proportion of self -built milk sources.

In the whole story, the most puzzling thing is that under the sense of oppression of the two major leaders, how can the normal temperature milk taste frequently spit out and how will a cow's adoption of ALL in marketing will survive in the Red Sea market?

01 Marketing accounts for 85.7%pain

The prospectus submitted on July 5 is presenting the operating logic of adopting a cow to be in front of the public. Facing the performance data of a cow, you have to lament the growth rate of the new consumer brand, as soon as a rocket.

As of 2021, the revenue of a cow was 2.56 billion yuan.

The data does not seem to be much. Eli's dairy product revenue last year was 100 billion. However, compared to Maiqu, which was exposed to the addition of fragrances from the time ago, Mcquel's dairy product revenue was only 730 million at the same time. After 20 years, it took only 5 years to adopt a cow.

In particular, it is almost the history of the growth of a cow's entrepreneurial history.

Euromonitor data shows that from 2015 to 2020, the domestic normal temperature white milk market that has adopted a cow's main attack has been in the direction of "double oligarch". In 2015, the total market share of the two giants was 64.3%. Reach 85.7%.

At the end of 2021, the data calculation of the total temperature white milk retail scale of normal temperature in my country, adopting a cow has been scattered to 1.3%in the large market. This number will also increase. In 2021, the rate of revenue of a cow pure milk revenue is 52.62%. In contrast, Yili's liquid dairy performance growth is only 11.54%, Mengniu is 12.9%, and you are young and vigorous feeding one head. The promise of the cattle is unlimited.

"Almost because he removed the intermediate link." Wu Xiaobo commented. The strategy of adopting a cow is the differentiation of the main brand image, and the initial raw material supply and product production are solved by outsourcing. On the sales side, the strong traditional business super and husband and wife shops were avoided to online direct -operating. In 2021, Yili had only 3.19%of the revenue from direct operating, while adopting a cow was as high as 48.15%.

During the traditional dairy company of Yili and Mengniu's high -speed growth, both major dairy companies invested a lot of funds for distribution channel construction. Since 2012, more and more direct sales staff directly in Yili entered the terminal, allowing Yili's sales model The direction of turns into the direction.

Sales costs can be reflected. As of 2021, Yili had 1,8352 salesperson, with sales costs 19.3 billion yuan, and 414 sales personnel were adopted. The sales cost was 483 million yuan. A cow is about 2.3%of Yili, and strictly sew.

However, it is wrong to look at the sales cost structure. In 2021, the sales expenses of Yili were used for salary of 5.4 billion yuan for sales personnel, accounting for about 2797%, 12.6 billion yuan for advertising marketing, accounting for about 65.28%; and adoption of adoption; while adopting adoption The sales cost of a cattle was only 59 million yuan in the same period for sales personnel's salary, accounting for about 12%, and 414 million yuan for advertising marketing, accounting for 85.7%.

A bullish prospectus shows that high marketing costs are mainly used for marketing and promotion of e -commerce platforms. Among them, Tmall channels are big heads, and the brand's 21.98%revenue relies on Taobao/Tmall channel sales.

The deepening of any sales channel will depend on the brand development path. Mengniu has quickly achieved the rush to Eli volume through the major dealers, but has to face the competition of the company's company -channel control increasingly increasingly controlled channel control -channel control has become increasingly increasing Difficulty, the brand is difficult to sink.

Adopting a cow also faces the Mengniu -style dilemma -lying on the old channels to enjoy the growth of growth, but the future growth will not avoid the positive battlefield of the giant. The emerging brand will eventually come out of the "comfort zone" day.

02 Story concept stocks, can support an IPO?

China's dairy industry has no new stories for a long time.

As of July 7, the two giants of China Changwen Milk and Mengniu rolled the price -earnings ratio of 24.92 times and 25.09 times, respectively, while the flying cranes of the milk powder were less than 9 times. In addition to the faster growth of Miaoche Lan, traditional dairy companies, it has to face the anxiety of performance growth. The valuation logic of dairy companies rely on the overall growth rate of the industry in the industry. Ou Rui's forecast data shows that domestic liquid milk has a negative growth trend, and the compound growth rate of normal temperature milk from 2018 to 2024 is 3.09%, and more dependent prices increase instead of sales.

The other side of the coin is that in the entire new consumption era, traditional dairy companies are in a state of dullness.

Earlier this year, Yili released a new product "You must have thick milk ice cream", which aims to chase high -end high -end ice cream consumption waves with high popularity. Prior to this, Yili and Mengniu were absolute overlords in the ice cream market, which controlled the low -end ice cream market in the country. Regarding the "ice cream assassin" battlefield represented by Zhong Xuegao, the product sequence of the two giants seemed lagging and disconnected.

"Winning the World Cup resources is also a marketing debt owed in the past few years." Mongolian Niu President Lu Minfang once said at the performance meeting. For the giants, the volume of itself is too large. Only by impacting enough marketing resources can it ensure that the sales of new products are flying.

To a certain extent, the double oligopoly limits the giant's thinking from the perspective of consumers -instead of paying a blank demand in the market, it is better to engrav the opponent's ace products. The strong channel layout across the country's market has enabled consumers to accept strong discourse outputs from top -down. Mengniu and Yili have launched high -end pure milk Telun Su and Jin Dian. Behind quality products, it is difficult for consumers to see the differences in different brands.

The birth of a cow brand itself reflects this problem -if the product structure of Elimon cattle is complete, the user's awareness of the brand's quality is clear enough. Why can emerging brands still find a breakthrough from quality marketing?

During the entire growth process, adopting a cow has been emphasizing quality. In the eyes of many consumers, the growth miracle of adoption of cows originated from the brand's enthusiastic pursuit of quality super industry levels.

"We are not dairy companies, but a company that raises cattle for users." Said a cow CEO Sun Shijun. This concept was written into the company's prospectus: "The company only raises cattle for users as the brand mission", and the founder Jiang Kchi claims to move from Zhejiang's home to Hebei Ranch to specialize in raising cattle. On July 8th, adopting a cow also opened the live broadcast on the WeChat video number, showing the internal conditions of the production line to users, and the concept of "traceability" was resolutely implemented, which made many consumers feel good.

"Consumers are very different, and now they are difficult to adjust." Song Liang, a dairy industry analyst, told the "new entropy". The huge volume of Yili and Mengniu faces higher trial and error costs in any war, and the innovation of small and medium -sized dairy companies is more flexible, and its ability to find a blank market is stronger.

In fact, the competition for the difference in a cow has not been separated from the "high -end pure milk battle" of Yili and Mengniu more than ten years ago. The content of adopting a cow is more grounded -came to look at your cow drinking milk.

03 New consumption "believers" or "traitor"?

Back to adopting a cow itself, is it a new consumption to adopt a cow? From the perspective of channel characteristics and brand positioning, of course.

But from the product itself, it cannot be counted.

The background of the birth of the new consumption is that the supply of goods is sufficient, the consumer demand is more diverse, and the path to obtain the consumer experience becomes social media such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu. Adopting a cow does not provide more differences in the product. Compared with Mengniu Yili, the milk that adopts a cow is only "no adjustment". The user's unanimous evaluation of its pure milk is "light taste", "no strong fragrance feelings have no sense of fragrance. "".

To this day, the adoption of a cow has not achieved a complete milk source.

In the official announcement, a cow has repeatedly promoted the high breeding standards of its self -built pasture, including 80 yuan daily fees daily for dairy cows, listening to music for massage. However, on the other side, adopting a cow has been exposed many times to acquire raw materials from the outside, and adopted a cow also acknowledged in the prospectus that the company mainly adopted its own milk source and third -party cooperation milk source model.

Especially in the early stage of establishment, the role of its own milk source is lower. The role of self -built ranch in adopting a cow is more marketing and promotion rather than providing production raw materials. ", Do it for users, as for whether you can drink it, depend on luck.

The marketing method expresses the anxiety of adoption of cows, and adopting a cow borrows from the milk booking model of local dairy companies. In the brand's adoption concept, an important innovation is the "adoption card", which is divided into two types: seasonal card and annual card. From about 300 yuan to about 2,000 yuan, this is called "membership card" by many consumers.

From a benefit, the adoption card has established a longer -term connection with the brand and consumers; but for consumers, the online long -term milk order itself limits its own "early adopter" needs, which is equivalent to consumers to become dealers themselves, and the burden has a burden. The pressure of the fast -moving brand online channels, which is contrary to the demands of "diversified" and "early adopters" in the new consumption era.

In fact, adopting a cow is always fighting guerrillas with the giant -in the sinking market and offline channels dominated by the giant, and adopting a cow high -exemption card. In recent years, the revenue of a cow has been adopted. The online direct -operated channels have contributed, and the cost is a deformed sales cost structure. Under the strong market dividend of consumers, emerging brands can often get rapid growth from 0 to 1, but growth from 1 to N needs to intervene in the frontal battlefield of the giants, that is, the channel network of the market, which is exactly the same. It is the threshold that you must pass by a cow.

"There are a lot of online issues, and the products need to be high -unit price to cover the courier fee, which limits high -frequency demand. In addition, it is not easy to make profits. In an interview with Li Feng, the founder of Fengrui Capital. In 2018, as the cost of e -commerce platforms soared, the three squirrels known as the Tao brand had to urgently laid offline channels and even let go of joining.

For adopting a cow, the contradiction of the brand is equally sharp. Stories can make the emerging brand running online, but it cannot avoid the conflict of channels that will come.

Original@， 本, Author: Bai Yan, Editor: Monthly See

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