my country's petrochemical industry is stable and worried

Text/Sinopec Federation Information and Marketing Department

Affected by the epidemic, geopolitics, and weak downstream demand, the pressure of operating the petrochemical industry has increased.

In the first quarter, the economic operation of my country's oil and chemical industry was generally stable. The production of the entire industry has remained normal, the foreign trade continues well, the investment growth is steadily, and the operating income and profits continue to grow rapidly. However, due to the influence of epidemic and geopolitical politics, the global economy has slowed down, and the demand is weak. The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, natural gas have risen sharply, market risks have accumulated, and economic operation pressure continues to increase.

Industry benefits are generally good

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of March, there were 28,436 enterprises above designated size in the oil and chemical industries, with the cumulative value -added increased by 1.7%, which was 0.9 percentage points slowed down from the previous two months, and the increase in the value -added of industrial industries was 4.8 percentage points. Among them, the added value of the chemical industry increased by 4.1%, the refining industry decreased by 3.6%, and the oil and gas mining industry increased by 4.5%.

From January to March, the petrochemical industry realized operating income of 3.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.2%, accounting for 12.4%of the national operating income of the country. Among them, the operating income of the chemical industry was 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.9%; the operating income of oil and natural gas mining industry was 328.71 billion yuan, an increase of 40.4%.

In the first quarter, the benefits of the petrochemical industry maintained a better situation. However, due to the rapid rise in the prices of raw materials such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal, the growth rate of profit growth in the industry began to slow, and the benefits of upstream and downstream differentiated differentiation: the total profit of the entire industry achieved a total profit of 35.446 billion yuan, an increase of 29.1%, accounting for 18.1%of the national scale profit. ; The industry's operating income profit margin was 9.17%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the same period last year.

In the first quarter, the prices of crude oil and natural gas climbed all the way to the highest level since 2015, and the profit of oil and gas mining industry increased significantly. As of the end of March, the cumulative total profit of enterprises above designated size of the oil and gas mining industry achieved a total of 103.05 billion yuan, a significant increase of 154.6%; the profit margin of oil and natural gas mining industry was 31.35%, an increase of 14.06 percentage points over the same period last year.

The efficiency of chemical industry maintains a good situation. In the first quarter, the market price of the main chemicals remained high, and the benefits continued the good situation of the previous year. However, due to the sharp rise in raw materials, the market market has begun to differentiate and downstream pressure has increased. As of the end of March, the cumulative total profit of enterprises above designated size in the chemical industry had a total profit of 173.19 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4%. Among them, the total profit of basic chemical raw materials and special chemical manufacturing increased by 26.8%and 14.0%, respectively, and the total profit of fertilizer and pesticide manufacturing increased by 100.8%and 134.7%, respectively. 21.4%, 12.4%and 60.2%. In the first quarter, the operating income profit margin of the chemical industry was 8.66%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the industry's investment maintained rapidly, but the upstream and downstream were significantly differentiated.

In the first quarter, the industry's foreign trade remained rapidly, but the growth rate slowed down.

Steady consumption in production

In the first quarter, the production of energy and major chemicals remained basically stable. The total natural gas output of crude oil across the country was 1020 million tons (amount of oil), an increase of 5.5%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous two months.

The growth rate of crude oil production has accelerated, and natural gas production has slowed down. From January to March, the national crude oil output was 511.89 million tons, an increase of 4.4%, a growth rate of nearly 10 years at a record high; natural gas output was 59.65 billion cubic meters, an increase of 6.6%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the same period last year. The amount of crude oil processing was 171 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the output of refined oil (totaling of auto, coal, and diesel) was 93.42 million tons, an increase of 10.4%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

The output of key chemicals has maintained steadily. From January to March, the national ethylene output was 7.237 million tons, an increase of 0.9%; the output of sulfuric acid was 23.223 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%; the output of alkali was 9.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.2%; the output of soda soda was 7.111 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%; Tons, an increase of 2.2%. In addition, the output of tire tires was 210 million, a decrease of 3.7%.

The production of agricultural chemicals is basically stable. From January to March, the total output of fertilizers in the country (folding, the same below) was 13.574 million tons, an increase of 3.3%; the output of pesticide original drugs (100%) 621,000 tons, a decrease of 0.5%.

In the first quarter, domestic energy and major chemicals were insufficient, and they continued to decline. The total consumption of crude oil natural gas consumption was 264 million tons (amount of oil), a decrease of 2.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous two months; the growth rate of major chemical consumption decreased by 0.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points.

The decline in crude oil consumption has expanded, the demand for natural gas is weak, and consumption of coalmaches has differentiated. From January to March, the domestic crude oil consumption was 179 million tons, a decrease of 4.8%year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous two months, and the foreign dependence of 71.4%; natural gas apparent consumption of 94.455 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.5%. It is the minimum growth rate in the past 10 years, and the foreign dependence is 39.7%. In the first quarter, the consumption consumption of domestic refined oil watch was 87.897 million tons, an increase of 21.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from January to February. Consumption of basic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials has continued to decline. From January to March, the total consumption consumption of basic chemical raw materials decreased by 1.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous two months. Among them, the consumption consumption consumption of inorganic chemical raw materials decreased by 4.4%, and the consumption consumption of organic chemical raw materials increased by 2.9%. In the first quarter, the total consumption consumption of synthetic materials was about 56.859 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous two months.

Feds of chemical fertilizer are strong. From January to March, the total consumption of the national fertilizer was 13.576 million tons, an increase of 8.0%.

Total level of price fluctuations

In the first quarter, the oil and major chemical markets fluctuated at a high level, and the total price level continued to rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price index of the National Bureau of Statistics rose by 47.4%year -on -year, and rose by 14.1%year -on -year; chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing prices rose 15.7%year -on -year, up 1.8%month -on -month. In the first quarter, the ex -factory prices of oil and natural gas mining rose 42.8%year -on -year, and chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing rose 18.7%.

International crude oil market: Affected by factors such as Russia and Ukraine's conflict and epidemic conditions, international crude oil prices have risen all the way, and it has continuously refreshed new highs in recent years. Monitoring data shows that in the first quarter, the average price of WTI was $ 94.49/barrel, an increase of 63.49%year -on -year; the average price of Brent crude oil was 101.41 US dollars per barrel, a year -on -year increase of 67.20%; the average price of Dubai crude oil was 95.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 59.24%year -on -year, a year -on -year increase of 59.24%. ; The average price of victory crude oil was 98.06 US dollars per barrel, a year -on -year increase of 57.24%. Due to the impact of epidemic, geopolitical conflict, extreme weather and other factors, the crude oil market will show greater uncertainty and instability in 2022.

Basic chemical raw material market: In the first quarter, due to the price of raw materials, the price of the domestic basic chemical raw material market remained at a high level. In general, the rise of organic chemical raw materials is stronger than inorganic raw materials. Market monitoring shows that in March, the average market price of 46 major inorganic chemical raw materials rose 44 year -on -year, accounting for 95.7%, an increase of 1 kind from the previous month; it rose 30 kinds from the previous month, accounting for 65.2%, which was the same as last month. Among the 87 main organic chemical raw materials, 69 were increased year -on -year, accounting for 79.3%, and 4 species from the previous month; 58 were increased from the previous month, accounting for 66.7%, a decrease from the previous month. In the second quarter, the demand for the basic chemical raw material market will remain relatively weak, and the rise in price will slow down. As the price of crude oil continues to operate at a high level, the cost pressure of organic chemical raw materials will increase, and the prices of upstream basic products may continue to operate at a high level.

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