Is it ready for Chinese oil companies to take over the Russian oil and gas business?

Wen / Xiaojun

After the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, European and American economic sanctions on Russia continued to upgrade. The field of energy has become the focus of sanctions and anti -sanctions between the two sides. After the sanctions were introduced, although European and American oil companies were not willing, they still followed the politician's command sticks. It plans to withdraw from the Russian business, at least not new investment in Russia.

Recently, domestic petroleum companies discussed with Shell to acquire the shares of the Sahalin-2 project operated with Russian Natural Gas Company. China is adjacent to Russia. In recent years, the oil and gas cooperation between the two sides has steadily advanced, and the buildings are quite abundant. This time European and American companies intend to withdraw from Russia, and Chinese -funded companies intend to take over. It is a normal market behavior. However, the current international geopolitical situation is more special. When the Russian -Ukraine conflict is in progress, the cooperation between China and Russia companies is facing opportunities to avoid unavoidable risks, but the author believes that long -term risks are still controllable.

Long -term risk controlled

From a medium -term perspective, European and American sanctions on Russia cannot completely prevent Russia from cooperation with China.

On the one hand, Russia is a large oil and gas country, and Europe has a long -term dependence on oil and gas in Russia. This special "national conditions" make European and American sanctions Russia do not always be "iron plates" at all times, and it is difficult for sanctions to achieve thoroughly. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, although Europe has repeatedly claimed to get rid of Russia's oil and gas and continuously take measures, its effect is very small. On the issue of sanctions on Russia, Europe is still inadequate and insufficient. The "qi shortage" that occurred in 2021 still caused the hearts of European countries. In order to avoid similar energy crisis again, Europe has already begun to look at the global energy source. Although the United States, the Middle East, and Africa are theoretical suppliers in theoretically, the long water cannot be relieved. For a period of time, the strong real needs of European natural gas in Europe still need to rely on Russia to meet. In the past period, Russia relied on the "weapon" of natural gas. It has taken the initiative in many games, and has disconnected the natural gas of several European countries. Its lethality is not to be underestimated.

On the other hand, both China and Russia are political, economic and military powers. Energy cooperation between the two sides in the future is the general trend and has corresponding anti -risk capabilities. Due to the world's global demands such as energy supply and trade in China and Russia, with the movement of time and the final end of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, at the same time, as the geopolitical situation tends to a new balance, European and American sanctions on Russia should gradually slowly calm down Essence Therefore, from a long period of perspective, the risks of Sino -Russian oil and gas cooperation will show the characteristics of strong and weak sanctions from Europe and the United States.

Prepare for "lasting war" ideas

From the perspective of supply, Russia is a large oil and gas country. It has abundant oil and gas storage output. It has a pivotal status in the global oil and gas industry. It is an important oil and gas "ration" supply country in many countries around the world. China and Russia's oil and gas cooperation can be said to be a typical complementary geographical advantage, which is in line with the long -term strategic interests of both parties. Under this situation, Chinese oil and gas companies have entered an important natural gas project in Russia, which is self -explanatory for Sino -Russian oil and gas cooperation. If this project is successful, it can even be regarded as another China -Russia oil and gas cooperation incident that has an important influence after the China -Russia Eastern Line's natural gas. According to the initial planning of Russia's natural gas company and Shell, the Sahalin-2 project will meet the needs of the two parties to develop the Asia-Pacific natural gas market and develop the LNG business. As we all know, the focus of the Asia -Pacific natural gas market is in China. The participation of Chinese companies in this project will naturally be more conducive to the implementation of the initial planning goals of the project.

Based on the current situation judgment, oil and gas projects that Chinese -funded enterprises have an important impact on the Russian and Asia -Pacific markets need to be prepared for the "long -lasting war" ideas. Strengthening cooperation with Russia's natural gas meets the strategic needs of China and Russia, so the positive significance of Chinese -funded enterprises investing in Russia's natural gas projects should be fully affirmed. Even if there are risks, they should take the initiative and create conditions to promote cooperation. However, it is necessary to see that Europe and the United States' sanctions on Russia -Ukraine -based conflicts should not stop quickly. Sanctions have a certain "inertia", and the lethality is relatively large.

Recently, Chinese-funded enterprises have taken over Shells in the Sahalin-2 project in Russia. It is highly likely to be intervened and restricted by various uncertain factors, especially the restrictions on financial sanctions. There should be full ideological preparation and response strategies. To this end, on the one hand, we should actively negotiate, and definitely enter the meaning of entering the Russian gas project, and strive to enter the Sahalin project as much as possible; on the other hand, for safety and risk consideration, striving for stabilizing words first, paying close attention to European and American pairs, the European and American pairs Russia's sanctions and the changes in the situation of the Russian -Ukraine conflict to avoid their edge, and at the same time focus on the various risks response to European and American financial sanctions on Russia and the United States.

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