Why is Shenzhen house "unable to sell"?

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Wu Suwen 丨 Guangdong report

In the Shenzhen property market in the first half of 2022, the news was very hot and the market was cold.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, Shenzhen's new houses were sold for 16,000 units, a year -on -year decrease of 38.3%; second -hand house transactions were 9965 units, a year -on -year drop of nearly 65%, the lowest point since 2007.

"In this market, if you do n’t buy it, you will be watched with cash and worry about income. If you buy it, you dare not sell it, and you will not be able to buy it." A Shenzhen owner told the reporter of China Economic Weekly.

Many interviewees believe that the current market confidence is insufficient and the transaction is downturn. Some experts say that with factors such as the introduction of a large number of new houses, the rise of the surrounding markets, the introduction of the rescue policy of the epidemic, and the targeted interest rate cut for real estate in the early stage, the second -hand housing market will improve in the second half of the year, and the Shenzhen property market will bottom out.

The Shenzhen property market is hovering, and the sales volume of one -and -two -handed housing is increasing

In February 2021, after the reference price mechanism of the second -hand housing transaction transaction was introduced, the Shenzhen property market, especially the second -hand housing market, was in a trough period from mid -last year.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2021, the sales price index of second -hand commodity residential residential residential residential residential residential residential residentiality index fell by 0.1%from the flat transfer of last month, and then went down all the way, and it did not stop until April and May this year.

The transaction volume of second -hand housing has also decreased significantly. In 2021, Shenzhen second -hand houses were sold for 40,699 units, a year -on -year decrease of 57.3%. In the first half of 2022, the city's second -hand housing was sold for 9965 units, a year -on -year drop of nearly 65%.

Regarding the performance of the first half of the year, the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association analyzed that due to the severe regulation of continuing continued in the second half of last year, the impact of multiple factors such as the Spring Festival and the epidemic of repeated heads at the beginning of the year. The overall transaction volume of half a year.

The transactions of new houses are more active. Except for May, the transaction volume of new houses in Shenzhen in the first half of the year was higher than that of second -hand houses. According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, in June, Shenzhen's newly -built commercial housing transactions were sold for 3008 units, an increase of 16.52%year -on -year; 2,241 units of second -hand commodity residential houses decreased by 0.22%year -on -year.

"This is a phenomenon that has never been before in the past ten years." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Rules Institute, said on his personal public account. Over the years, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Shenzhen has been about twice the new house. In the first half of this year, this proportion has begun to reverse.

Li Yujia analyzed that after the concentrated land supply in 2020, Shenzhen began to restrict the price of new houses. At the same time, batch land supply is opened. When the "new house limited price" encounters "batch land supply", there will be a large number of new houses that are both cheap, more supply, and low cost. At the same time, "equalization of degree" began to land, and new house projects generally have famous schools. As a result, the advantages of second -hand housing quickly faded or weakened, and more people in need buy new houses. Coupled with the general tension of developers' funding chains, new houses have various discounts and do not have so much taxes. The transaction volume is much better than second -hand houses.

Song Ding, deputy director of the China Urban Economic Expert Committee, pointed out that according to this situation, the proportion of second -hand housing transactions may slip to about 30%next year. In the future, with a large number of new houses, the supply and demand relationship will improve a large area, and house prices will be reasonably controlled. At the same time, the reference price policy of second -hand housing will be strictly implemented for a long time, and the volume and price of second -hand housing will be continuously affected.

Wait and see the emotions, the speculators pour into Dongguan

The listing price shows the confidence of the current owner to a certain extent. According to data from Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, in the first half of 2022, the average listing price of second -hand housing in Shenzhen fell 0.8%year -on -year, down 1.5%month -on -month.

Yang Qingqing, who has been engaged in real estate agencies in Shenzhen for 6 years, said: "The instruction price of second -hand housing, the house price fell, and the house tax and monthly supply costs. Many people bought the houses in the past two years." Said, even if house prices do not fall, a lot of costs have been paid in terms of taxes and fees for buying houses and interest supply.

Xiaoying has two sets of houses in Shenzhen, one of which was bought in 2021, "just bought it on the top of the mountain". She bluntly stated that in the past two years, she has been in a state of being stuck: "I haven't fallen a lot in the past two years, and it has not been exaggerated last year. It has been fell more severely this year. About 10 % of the loss. In the third year of the epidemic, everyone's mentality changed, and more and more close to the guidance price. "

Another owner of another "get on the car" this year also has similar feelings and experiences: "In the first half of the year, there were about tens of thousands of new real estate houses, only one new real estate was sold on the same day, and more than 10 other 10 were discounted. The market was too cold. The house I bought is sold at the guidance price, and the seller will pay taxes. "

Yang Qingqing said that this is indeed the phenomenon of early this year. It was relatively sluggish in February and March, and there were more houses sold at the guidance price. However, she also said that by May and June, it is rarely sold at the guidance price, unless the owner has special cases such as debt, cash out, and abundant houses.

Because the market recovery in the first half of the year was not as good as expected, the owner's willingness to dissemirates has not increased significantly.

Yang Qingqing said that the owners who are currently on the market are not as many as the beginning of the year, the second -hand housing rarely translates, and the pushing houses are significantly less. "Because many owners have bought it in the past few years, they do not sell money, they must not sell it at the guidance price, and those who need to change the house are not anxious to buy it. They may be good when they are optimistic."

Another Shenzhen intermediary Huang Tao said that some owners think that it is a better time to change the house and intends to go low. "It will not be lower than the guidance price now, and the luxury home market has always been very strong." It is worth mentioning that on July 4, the four departments such as Dongguan Housing and Urban -Rural Development Bureau jointly issued the "Regarding Classification Guidance The notice of optimizing housing purchase restriction policies "announced that 28 towns and streets have been fully lifted to purchase restrictions in addition to Guancheng Street, Dongcheng Street, Nancheng Street, Wanjiang Street, and Songshan Lake High -tech Industrial Development Zone.

Huang Tao said: "As soon as Dongguan announced the release, many Shenzhen customers bought dozens of sets in the past. The unit price of about 3.5 million yuan/square meter can be paid in installments to 20 %, which is very attractive to them."

How to perform the Shenzhen property market in the second half of the year?

As the epidemic gradually calmed down and LPR continued to reduce, the market confidence recovered, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen in May and June slowly rebounded, and the transaction volume stabilized at 2000-3000 units per month.

Yang Qingqing told the reporter of "China Economic Weekly": "Compared with February and March, the transaction volume of 2000 sets/month is considered to be heated, but according to the normal market, it is medium and down. Normal should be 4,000 sets of/month level level. ","

Although market demand needs to be released, Shenzhen is still increasing supply. According to the annual implementation plan of the housing development issued by the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Construction Bureau, from 2020 to 2022, Shenzhen plans to supply the land for commercial housing for 125 hectares, 149.3 hectares, and 215 hectares, and then hit a new high.

On July 6, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Construction Bureau issued the "Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Loan Management Regulations (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)", and proposed that the applicant's spouse, parents, and children can be used as joint applicants regardless of whether they have deposited housing provident funds. The city camp of the provident fund "one person to buy a house".

Does this series of moves indicate that the Shenzhen property market will recover or even loosen in the second half of the year?

Li Yujia said in an interview with "China Economic Weekly" reporter: "The bottom of the Shenzhen property market has gradually appeared, but how long it is difficult to say from the bottom to the rebound, because this is the bottom of the U -shaped, the process of the inspection process is gradually gradually being gradually gradually gradually becoming a gradual. Consolidate the bottom, hover at the bottom, and then slowly pick up. "

He said that as a city led by second -hand housing, Shenzhen's current second -hand housing market is sluggish. There are more people in Shenzhen with a demand for housing, and there is a strong linkage relationship between the second -hand housing market and the new housing market. Once the second -hand housing market cannot stabilize, the new house market is unstable. "All cities have improved in June in June. Only Shenzhen's second -hand housing transactions in June have decreased compared to May. If the second -hand housing market does not recover, it is difficult to rebound in the Shenzhen property market."

At the same time, Li Yujia believes that there are only a few directions in the policy adjustment of the Shenzhen property market. One is the restrictions on buying a house, the other is the restriction area, and the third is to restrict sales. At present, it is unlikely to make adjustments. Essence With the large number of new housing sales, the recovery of the surrounding markets, and the rescue of the epidemic, including the impact of the targeted interest rate reduction factors for real estate in the early stage, the second -hand housing market will improve in the second half of the year, and the Shenzhen property market will bottom out.

The interviewed interviews also held a relatively optimistic attitude towards the market in the second half of the year. Yang Qingqing said, "Now you can clearly see the transaction data upwards, the discounts of developers are active, the government takes out a better place to shoot, and luxury homes have been good. We have judged based on these years."

(The requirements of the interview, Yang Qingqing, Huang Tao, Xiaoying are a pseudonym))

Responsible editor | Yang Lin

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