Tomorrow Steam and diesel prices are expected to welcome "two consecutive declines"

This cycle (since June 28), due to the heating up at the level of oil demand, it has exceeded concerns about supply, and international oil prices have obviously recovered. Affected by this, it is expected that the price of domestic refined oil products on July 12 is expected to usher in a "two consecutive declines". Temporarily expected that the price of auto and diesel is reduced by about 330 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to 92#gasoline and 0#diesel. Yuan, 0.28 yuan.

In order to cope with the continuous rising inflation pressure, some central banks such as the Federal Reserve have entered the interest rate hike period, and the interest rate hikes are strong. At the same time, as the market re -evaluates the prospects of oil demand, international oil prices have recently fallen sharply. On July 5, oil prices fell more than 8%in one day. As of the closing of July 6, the main contract prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures have fallen by more than 20%compared with the high point on March 8 this year. However, from the performance of the crude oil spot market, the tension of oil supply still exists, and then international oil prices have stopped falling.

Affected by the recovery of international oil prices, the change in crude oil prices in this cycle has shifted from positive, and the negative range has continued to expand in recent days. The data released by Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on July 11 showed that the average price change rate of crude oil on July 8 was -4.74%. Based on this calculation, it is expected that domestic auto and diesel prices will be reduced at 24:00 on July 12. This will be the third time to reduce the price limit of the reinforcement of refined oil. It is about 330 yuan per ton.

Data source: China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-GAS System)

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic oil retail price limit has undergone 12 price windows, which is 10 rose and 2 declines. After the rise and fall, the cumulative domestic auto and diesel prices have increased by 2,400 yuan and 2,310 yuan, respectively.

In terms of the domestic wholesale market, due to the expected expected of the retail price, the downstream operators have a wait -and -see attitude towards the market. Recently, the sending of auto and diesel batch has weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light. China Automobile and diesel wholesale prices jointly released by China Economic Information Agency, China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center showed that on July 8th, the average wholesale prices of 92#gasoline and diesel (including low coagulation points) nationwide were respectively. It was 9515 yuan/ton and 8587 yuan/ton, which fell 104 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton respectively from June 29 (the first working day after the previous round adjustment).

Looking forward to the market outlook, although the demand for oil may be reduced, the current situation of tight supply is difficult to alleviate. Many oil -producing countries have difficulty in increasing investment capacity in terms of insufficient investment. In recent countries, some production interruptions have also been occurred. In summary, it is expected that the international oil price operation center will be moved down, but the support below still exists, or restricts the downward space of oil prices.

Sichuan Observation (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

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