Increased supply and demand of phosphorus ore: upstream to sell downstream to be fed

Since the beginning of this year, phosphorus ore prices have repeatedly reached high. According to business data, phosphorus ore rose 19.21%in May, an increase of 78.43%year -on -year. As of June 13, the latest price of phosphorus ore was 1010 yuan/ton, a year -on -year increase of 98.04%.

Behind prices, the contradiction between the supply and demand of phosphorus ore. On the one hand, some phosphorus chemical enterprises have been transformed into self -use, and they are not available to the outside world. On the other hand, the demand for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphates in the lower reaches of phosphorus ore are still strong.

"Some phosphorus chemical companies have sold the contradiction between supply and demand, leading to further increase in the price of phosphorus ore." Zhang Xiaorong, Dean of the In -depth Science and Technology Research Institute, admitted to the Securities Daily reporter.

Phosphorus ore price runs high

According to business data, the price of phosphorus ore at the end of 2021 was 690 yuan/ton. Based on the current latest price of 1010 yuan/ton, the annual increase was 46.38%.

"The rise in the price of phosphorus and ore is mainly tight supply and demand, and the upstream supply of downstream demand is tightened." Zhang Xiaorong said that after years of mining, the supply of raw ore supply is reduced, and due to environmental protection issues, the threshold for the construction of mining companies is getting higher and higher. Last year, a large number of small mines were withdrawn, weakening the supply capacity. "On the contrary, market demand has not become less due to reduction of supply, and even expands. On the one hand, it is due to the increase in demand for agricultural planting due to geopolitical conflicts. Rising has also expanded the demand for phosphorus ore. "

It is understood that in recent years, my country ’s control over phosphorus and ore resources has continued to increase, including improving the entry threshold for mining resources in phosphorus ore resources. With the insufficient supply of phosphorus ore, this year Guizhou, Hubei and other regions have strictly controlled phosphate ore exports.

"In the short term, the price of phosphorus ore will maintain a high level of firmness. In the long run, with the continuous mining of phosphate resources and the irreplaceability of phosphate resources, the market's long -term supply may continue to be tight, and the price of ore may continue to high." Li Xia, an analyst of the phosphorus ore industry, told the Securities Daily reporter.

In the context of the continuous high -level operation, phosphorus chemical companies with integrated industries have obvious advantages. In the investigation of institutional investors, Yun Tianhua said: "The company's current phosphorus ore reserves are about 800 million tons. Since July 2021, the company's strategic considerations for improving the efficiency of phosphorus resources. In addition, the sales of phosphate ore were suspended. "It also said that its own phosphorus resources are sufficient and can meet the needs of existing capacity and project transformation and upgrading. In the future, the company will actively optimize the deployment and maximize the efficient utilization and efficiency of resources.

In the investigation of institutional investors, Chuanfa Long Python said that the company's existing phosphate mineral capacity was 1.15 million tons/year, and the company was acquiring Tianrui Mining. year. After the acquisition is completed, the company's phosphorus mineral capacity can reach 3.65 million tons/year.

CITIC Securities pointed out in the research report that in the short term, domestic demand and cost resonance, phosphorus chemical prices continue to prosper, and the performance of enterprises in the second quarter is expected to continue to improve; Better.

Demand downstream demand

The downstream demand of phosphorus ore is still strong.

It is reported that phosphorus ore is mainly used to produce yellow phosphorus, phosphate fertilizer, phosphate, etc. Among them, phosphate fertilizer is the largest downstream demand for phosphate ore, and the demand accounts for over 70%.

Since the beginning of this year, global demand for phosphate fertilizer has continued to rise. At the same time, due to the tight price of phosphate and minerals, domestic ammonium phosphate and cycloping ammonium phosphate market have been operating strongly.

"The price of phosphorus ore has continued to rise, the cost of raw materials for phosphate fertilizer production enterprises has been pressured, and the price of phosphate fertilizer has also increased. The current 55%powder from Hubei Factory quotes is 4650 yuan/ton to 4700 yuan/ton, 64%of the two ammonium phosphate North China North China The outlet price is 4850 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton. "Li Xia told a reporter from the Securities Daily that although there was a rise, under the guidance of the national preservation policy, the price of domestic phosphate fertilizer was basically kept within normal range.

Hua'an Securities issued research reports that from the perspective of supply, global phosphate fertilizer supply has limited growth, international geopolitical conflicts affect global supply, and supply and demand gaps have further increased; from the perspective of demand, the amount of phosphorus fertilizer for unit planting area is increased, and the price of grain prices is superimposed. The demand for phosphate fertilizer is up, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is rigid and stable, and the compound annual growth rate is 0.72%.

Although the demand is not reduced, Li Xia believes that under the high pressure of raw materials, phosphate fertilizer companies may choose to reduce production, or choose to sell production to alleviate cost pressure. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand to determine whether enterprises can accept high -priced goods.

In addition, the popularity of the new energy track, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries on the downstream continues. GGII data shows that from January to April 2022 to April, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery was nearly 32GWh, an increase of 222.8%year -on -year. Some people in the industry predict that with the release of the demand for new energy vehicles, the demand for phosphorus ore in the field of new energy will continue to grow.

"Lithium iron phosphate will become an important source of increased demand for phosphate ore, and because of iron phosphate and purifying phosphate, the quality of ore has higher requirements, which will make high -grade ore more tense." Li Xia emphasized. (Reporter Wang He Xuejue Reporter Feng Yuyao)

[Editor in charge: Li Tong]

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