Large resonance, June CPI exceeds expectations

Summary

1. Since the market low at the end of April, the major indexes of A shares have risen significantly. At present, it has returned to the beginning of March, but there is still a significant gap in the fundamental level than before the epidemic. With the interpretation of interpretations in July to August, market fluctuations may increase. However, considering that the current economic recovery foundation is not firm, the domestic monetary policy in the third quarter may not be able to shift sharply without too much worry about domestic liquidity tightening. In addition, after the impact of the Shanghai epidemic in April to May, the domestic response speed and response mechanism of the Omikon epidemic have improved, so the impact of this round of epidemic may not be great.

2. In June, domestic CPIs exceeded expectations. In the second half of the year, pig prices and energy prices were important factor that could promote domestic inflation to continue to rise. However, recently, the global commodity market has gradually changed from "inflation transactions" to "recession trading". The phase of commodity prices will decline, which will reduce some input -type inflation pressure. The pig cycle may also be on the left side of the bottom.

3. In the short term of non -agricultural data in the United States in June, in the short term, the employment market has not hindered the Fed's fight against inflation. It is necessary to pay attention to the US June CPI released this week. Once it exceeds expectations, it does not rule out the possibility of market expectations in July.

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Last week, A shares adjusted slightly and ended the weekly line. Real estate, building materials, coal leadership, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, electricity equipment, national defense military industry and other anti -market rising. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 weeks fell 0.93%and 0.85%, respectively, and the GEM index rose 1.28%. The market turnover shrinks slightly compared with last week, but it can still be maintained above trillion yuan a day. The net inflow of northbound funds was 3.56 billion yuan last week.

Source: Wind

Recently, the central bank's continuous public market shrinkage operation has led some investors to worry about liquidity. In addition, the domestic epidemic has repeatedly cracked down on market risk preferences in many places. Overcoming the current disclosure of the interim report, some listed companies have collapsed related sectors that have failed the expected rumors.

Since the market low at the end of April, the major indexes of A shares have risen significantly. At present, it has returned to the beginning of March, but there is still a significant gap between the fundamentals than before the epidemic. With the interpretation of interpretations in July to August, market fluctuations may increase.

Source: Wind

However, considering that the current economic recovery foundation is not firm, the domestic monetary policy in the third quarter may not be able to shift sharply without too much worry about domestic liquidity tightening. In addition, after the impact of the Shanghai epidemic in April to May, the domestic response speed and response mechanism of the Omikon epidemic have improved, so the impact of this round of epidemic may not be great.

With the continuous improvement of domestic economic data, the growth of data in June may be significantly stabilized compared to April to May; on the other hand, it can pay attention to the relevant statements at the policy level, especially the relevant meetings that are expected to be held in mid-to-late July.

On Saturday, the Statistics Bureau disclosed the Inflation data in June. In June, the CPI was 2.5%year -on -year, higher than the expected 2.4%and the previous value 2.1%. Affected by factors such as increasing supply, improvement of logistics, and decreased demand for stocking, the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits and aquatic products decreased by 9.2%, 5.0%, 4.5%, and 1.6%, respectively, and the decline was stronger than the same period of previous years. However, affected by factors such as the increase of some breeding households and the increase in the demand for consumption, the price of pork has risen significantly since late June. In June, the monthly increase in a single month was 2.9%, which affected the CPI rose by about 0.04 percentage points.

Source: Bureau

In addition, due to the rise in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices continued to climb, rising 6.7%and 7.2%in a single month, driving the fuel items of transportation to increase by 6.6%month -on -month. Due to the impact of the prevention and control of the epidemic in June, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the graduation season, the service consumption has resumed, and the air tickets and tourism prices have risen by 19.2%and 1.2%, respectively. 0.3%.

On the whole, pig prices and energy prices in the second half of the year are important factor that may promote domestic inflation. At present, international energy prices remain high. However, recently, the global commodity market has gradually changed from "inflation transactions" to "recession trading". The phase of commodity prices will decline, which will reduce some input -type inflation pressure.

The current market attention is relatively high in the pig cycle. Last week, ETF (159865) had risen by 8.37%. Since mid -June, pig prices have risen rapidly. As of the end of June, the average national pig price has reached more than 20 yuan/kg, and pig prices have exceeded market expectations. In addition to the beginning of this round of rising sows in July last year, there are also some farmers' expectations of the impact of the rhythm adjustment of the columns and supplementary columns caused by their expectations.

However, it is currently in the off -season of pork consumption in the year, and the large pigs and secondary fattening pigs are delayed to the later columns. It is expected that the price of pork is still difficult to form a trend rising market in the short term. At present, the range of sowing is not large. The price of pigs may fall again in the second half of the year, resulting in the reappearance of production capacity. Therefore, it may still be at the left side of the bottom of the pig cycle. Interested friends can go back to the "Liang Xing: Pig price rising, the opportunity of the breeding industry is here?" "

Overseas, data disclosed on Friday, July 8 showed that the US non -agricultural data in June of the United States was expected to increase by 372,000, far exceeding the expected 268,000 people, and the unemployment rate was recorded by 3.6%for 4 consecutive months, close to 3.6%, which was close to it, close The lowest level over 50 years. After the data was released, the US dollar index was short -term, and US stock futures and US debt fell. Data from the Silence of the United States showed that the chance of raising 75 basis points in July increased. The Minutes of the Federal Reserve ’s June meeting disclosed last week, the overall statement of the interest rate interest interest interest rate interest meeting was consistent with the Powell’ s press conference. Economic prospects.

In the short term, the employment market has not hindered the Fed's confrontation with inflation. Before the significant signs of inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain an eagle position. It is necessary to pay attention to the US June CPI released this week. Once it exceeds expectations, it does not rule out the possibility of market expectations in July.

Finally attached ETF diagram

risk warning

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