British media: Nearly 70%of the major colleges will send economists to predict that the United State

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] The United States, which has reached the highest level of inflation in the past 40 years? According to the British "Financial Times" reported on the 13th, nearly 70%of the major colleges who were interviewed sent economists that the US economy would fall into a recession next year. Only one economist believes that the US economy will decline this year. According to the definition of the National Economic Research Agency (NBER), decline refers to "significant decline in economic activities, and this decline is spread throughout the economy and lasted for several months."

The latest survey conducted by the "Financial Times" and the University of Chicago's Booth Business School from June 6th to 9th showed that of 49 respondents, nearly 40%of the people expect NBER to announce in the first or second quarter of 2023 The United States has entered the economic recession; one -third of people believe that this will be postponed until the second half of next year.

Compared with the February survey, more economists now believe that the core inflation rate measured by the US consumption expenditure price index will exceed 3%by the end of 2023. In the next 12 months, geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs that have arrived are considered a key factor in boosting inflation. It is expected that by the end of this year, the median estimation of core inflation is 4.3%.

In this survey, nearly 40%of economists warned that if the Federal Reserve only increased the federal fund interest rate to 2.8%by the end of the year, inflation will not be controlled. Cruxa, who served as an economist at the Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch, warned that the Fed may eventually take measures to increase interest rates to about 5%to alleviate the problems caused by the "too long" of the Federal Reserve.

The Financial Times said that the results of the investigation were basically running against the Fed. The Fed insisted that they can suppress demand without serious impact. George Washington University economist Simchley said, "This is not an airplane on a conventional landing track. This is a plane landing on the steel wire, and at the same time, the wind is whistling. We want to reduce income and expenditure to the prices. Back to the 2 % target range of the Federal Reserve, this idea is very unrealistic. "(Chen Xin)

- END -