Zhu Hongyu, chief research officer of China Merchants Fund: Pay attention to the opportunity to upgrade related industries with manufacturing, and be optimistic about Hong Kong stocks

From a master of engineering in Tsinghua University to a researcher at the Securities Institute, from the SDIC UBS fund manager to the vice president of Sequoia Capital China Fund, from Hongshang Assets to Micro -Silver Financial Management ... When talking about his rich career experience, Zhu Hongyu said humility He is "a very lucky person."

But as Zhu Hongyu's highly respected investment master John Denpton said: "Without sufficient preparation and no effort, luck is just a word of no practical significance."

"Lifetime learning" is a word that Zhu Hongyu repeatedly emphasized in the interview. He likes to use a sentence in the Tao Te Ching as a warning: "The avenue is very good, and the people are good." The investment of the investment is wide and boundless, but most people love to copy the road from the side of the mountain. And Zhu Hongyu's requirements for herself are lifelong learning, constantly refining her investment methods, and unswervingly doing long -term difficulty and correct things.

As the return of continuous cultivation, Zhu Hongyu's representative group -Sinocratic Investment UBS has grown steadily. During its management period from 2011.5.20 to 2013.7.31, he obtained 29.26%of excess returns. , Two Taurus Fund Awards and 3 Star Fund Awards.

After experiencing the rolling of the first -level market and secondary market, public offering and private equity, what is the unique perspective of Zhu Hongyu's investment perspective? From the perspective of stock selection, decision -making and control fluctuations, we summarized his investment characteristics:

1. Stock selection: Under the premise of high winning rate, combined with medium and high odds selected high -quality companies

Zhu Hongyu did not recognize other people's "looking for bull stocks" thinking. He believed that this thinking was a way to drive the odds. "Investment in the secondary market pays attention to compound profit, the combination must have the ability to roll the snowball, so that the company's winning rate in the group is very high."

Driven by such thinking, Zhu Hongyu puts most of his energy on the deep research industry and the company, and strives to select a company with high long -term winning rates.

For valuation, Zhu Hongyu also believes that the valuation should be put behind, because the valuation is "essentially the problem of odds."

2. Decision: Buy under the condition of high winning rate and high odds

Zhu Hongyu's ideal investment status is to buy in the case of high winning rate and high odds, that is, the company's fundamental competition pattern is good and the demand is long -term. At the same time, the prosperity and expectations are at the bottom.

Such investment is often reverse investment, which tests the mentality of the fund manager. In this regard, Zhu Hongyu compared his investment to farmers: "To hold back loneliness, like farmers grow land, a little loose in the early stage, waiting for the time to plant and harvest."

As for the sale, Zhu Hongyu believes that there are three types of selling conditions: the fundamentals change, the target achieves the expected income, and has a better choice.

Zhu Hongyu is not a player of "if you buy it." He agrees with Howard Max: "In the face of the cycle, we may never know where to go, but it is best to understand where we are." Therefore, he will also make appropriately based on the prosperity. Select timing.

3. Control fluctuations: industry diversification+unlikely concentrated

"Corporation reaches X%, and the valuation is extremely high, and the valuation is exited." There are often ways to control fluctuations in the market, which is not what Zhu Hongyu wants to do. He believes that those who truly realize medium and high income and low fluctuations are the diversity of the industry.

"If you invest in a cultivated land only in a certain industry, it is impossible to control fluctuations better. This place may encounter droughts and floods and will encounter various situations. concentrated.

In the past, Zhu Hongyu's rich career experience and long -term deep learning were not only unique investment methodologies, but also a global perspective of "entrepreneur" thinking and crossing history.

Since this year, many investors will have a suffering for fluctuating stock markets. However, Zhu Hongyu is more optimistic about the industrial chain, real estate, and some Hong Kong stocks including the manufacturing industry ... The following is the full text of the conversation with Zhu Hongyu:

01 Curiosity is the beginning of everything

Ask you to learn from the engineering department. Why do you want to enter the investment industry?

Zhu Hongyu, I am more curious about how the outside world runs, and learned a lot of economic -related things out of curiosity.

I really want to understand this major starting with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Before undergraduate, I have never seen things about economic and finance. After undergraduate, I encountered the Asian financial crisis and had a greater impact on China at that time. I was curious and went to the library to read related books, such as the "Principles of Economics".

Later, I read a graduate student. At that time, reading was hard, and I was doing experiments and subjects for many times. But Tsinghua has the advantage that you can choose a course that you can be interested in. I chose many economics -related courses at the time, such as accounting, economics, and micro macro.

Before and after graduate graduate, I accidentally heard the profession of industry researchers from my brother, and later went to be a researcher.

I started from pharmaceutical research at the beginning. In addition to medicine and creatures, I also watched retail, consumer goods, construction materials, and macro strategies.

02 Under the premise of high winning rate, combined with medium and high odds selection

Ask about your investment philosophy?

Most of Zhu Hongyu's investment has a very "primitive" dream: looking for cattle stocks. This year, two bull stocks were found, and their career found 4 big bull stocks, and each bull stocks rose several times. This is a very simple thinking.

Many people manage money and want to make fast money, but this thinking is essentially a way of thinking. The first -level market institutions do first -level markets, which is also the odds -driven, because most of the projects in the first -level market are early or early in the industry's explosive growth.

These industries are characterized by fast growth and unstable competition pattern. No one knows who is the industry boss after 3, 5 years, or 10 years, and changes quickly every day.

Finding cattle stocks usually go to see if the demand side is explosive. The greater the elasticity, the higher the probability of finding cattle stocks, and the higher the probability of finding cattle stocks, which is also right.

From Sequoia to Private Equity, I came out to China Merchants. The deepest thing I felt was that the decision -making basis was no longer the driver of odds. It was based on the premise of high winning percentage.

The first-level market is essentially the odds drive. For example, if you invest in 100 projects, as long as 3-5 successful and one project is 100 times, you can make all the money back.

But if it is a secondary market, you buy 100 stocks, even if 3-5 of them have risen 100 times, you cannot make the entire performance well. Under the premise that the investment ratio is limited, it will not make much money in the end.

Therefore, the secondary market pays attention to compound interest, and your combination must have the ability to roll the snowball. This means that you have to make the company's winning rate very high as much as possible, otherwise the odds of just gambling are also difficult to achieve good results.

03 Put the valuation in the back to see

Ask how to choose the target of high winning rate?

Zhu Hongyu's method is to put the valuation behind. Valuation is essentially the issue of odds.

After I want to understand this problem, I usually accumulate and screen the industry and companies, and take the shot when the odds are high.

Low valuation does not mean that PE is low and does not mean that PB is low. Some companies are lower and more expensive. We are going to see the company's 3-5 years in the next 3-5 years. Under the premise of high winning percentage, it is enough for its odds.

I bought it when I had high odds, and I usually invested in reverse.

The ideal investment status is to take a shot under the condition of high winning rate and high odds, that is, the company's fundamental competition pattern, long -term demand, and competitive pattern have changed. At the same time at the bottom.

04 Investment is like farmers growing land. To bear loneliness, you must also see the season where you live

Ask if you feel that low market attention will affect future returns?

Zhu Hongyu is not necessarily.

First of all, even the "sunset industry" does not mean that there is no chance, as long as the market is large enough. Many so -called "sunset industries" have a 10 -fold opportunity. The key is how big your competitive advantage is, and whether your cost curve is steep.

Secondly, in -depth research.

For example, when a leading company was sanctioned by the United States last year, the attention was also very high, depending on whether you have the courage to buy it. If you do n’t have the previous research, you dare not buy it, even if you start it, you ca n’t hold it.

So what we have to do is to hold back loneliness. Like farmers grow land, a little loose in the early stage, waiting for the time to plant and harvest.

After thinking about it, my mentality became much better. I do n’t want to dig cow stocks every day and predict whether the industry can break out next year. I don't think I have this ability. I don't predict the weather. I am interested in how to choose good land and pick the seeds.

But I also need to know the seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter. Now that we have no prediction capabilities in the future, we must first know where the market is now and where will we go.

This involves a question. Many people ask, do you hold long -term holdings or do it?

My answer is that we study stocks based on long -term dimensions, but the market gives you opportunities. Why don't we do transactions? Buying stocks may have doubled in three years, but it rose 80%in three months. Why not consider selling?

So I should have a mid -hand -to -hand rate, and it is not necessarily right to hold it.

Ask can understand that you do some time selection based on the prosperity based on the premise of selecting good companies?

I think Zhu Hongyu, I don't think I will keep holding stocks.

05 There are three cases of selling stocks, and there is no particularly strong obsession for a certain stock

If you ask what circumstances will you consider selling?

There are three cases of Zhu Hongyu sold stocks.

First, the fundamentals are different from the original assumption;

Second, it realizes my expected return;

Third, I have a better choice.

The third one is more important. I chose 100 plots. At what time, there is a big room for sowing. Some places are already crowded, and their fertility is no longer possible, so I will raise it first to allow it to accumulate fat naturally.

The wealth management subsidiaries issued in September and October in 2020, at the end of 2020, basically sold many of the stocks with campaign. Because we have done it, for three years, some companies have a return rate of less than 5%. We study from a long-term perspective, but we still have to have a dimension of 3-5 years.

Customers give us money. If the stocks we take will not be able to create value for customers in the next three years, why should I hold those stocks? You should not have a particularly strong obsession with a stock.

I may choose about 100 good companies with about 100 segmented industries, of which about 40 companies are selected as groups. This process is dynamic, and I kept choosing 40 yuan of land in more than 100 yuan. If one day I can't choose the land worth sowing, I will drop the position. 06 Copy market fluctuations through industry diversification. Do not swell in investment

Ask your concentration?

Zhu Hongyu I don't want to be too concentrated. Unless the company that has long -term communication between long -term communication is extremely cheap, the long -term winning rate is particularly high and the odds have a particularly high breakthrough, which may buy enough.

We have been investing for a long time, and we will think that we have a very high level of perception of the industry and the company. But in fact, we are still very difficult for future predictions, and finding companies with core competitiveness will increase our odds.

Many information is noise. Even if it is not noise, the accumulation of information accumulation in the short period of medium and short -term will not essentially improve the accuracy of judging future, because this world is a highly complex non -linear system.

But human self -confidence will swell. The information you master has increased. Generally speaking, your judgment of this company only increases by 5%, but your self -confidence expands 3 to 5 times.

We must have a basic awe of this world and ourselves, otherwise you will inevitably overestimate your personal ability and decide with arrogance in the process of making decisions.

What is the concentration of your top ten heavy warehouses?

Zhu Hongyu, I don't make this constraint, look at the opportunity provided by the market.

Sometimes the market is distorted. If I know the pricing very well, it is obviously a land of 5,000 yuan, and someone pays a price of 50,000, then why should I set a range and not sell it?

Therefore, the first investment is to prevent mistakes by yourself, and the second is to use other people's mistakes and use market pricing opportunities.

Ask you how to balance the income and fluctuations?

Zhu Hongyu is a particularly good problem. There will be many ways to control fluctuations in this market, such as liquidation reduction, retracement, retracement to X%, and exit, and these are not the high valuation, and these are not what I want to do.

To achieve a real and high income and low fluctuations in the true sense, I still hold a cultivated land. We must continue to find different "land". I deployed 100-200 land in various industries, and continued to screen and eliminate it. In more than 100 yuan, 30-40 land cultivated in more than 100 yuan and the best output in the future.

If investing in a certain industry only "cultivated land", it is impossible to control fluctuations better. This land may encounter droughts and floods, and you will encounter various situations. You can't control it. So I will control fluctuations through the diversification of the industry.

To do industry diversification, the improvement of cognitive ability is a long process, so fund managers still have to learn for life.

But today, investors who are still unswervingly do long -term basic research, fewer and fewer people like Buffett and Munger every day. Because this process is very lonely and painful, you need to keep doing against humanity, constantly forcing yourself to learn things, enriching your knowledge structure. There is no shortcut.

07 Determine whether it is a good business, depending on these two points

Ask what you think is a good business?

Zhu Hongyu has two points.

First, in the process of scale expansion, whether the business is getting better and better or more difficult to do.

For example, an environmentally friendly company that made desulfurization and decrease sewage treatment 10 years ago, if it did it in Guangdong, it may not be able to succeed in other provinces. It has contact resources in Guangdong Province, and there may not be human resources in Zhejiang and Shanghai. This project -type business is getting harder and harder.

For another example, for example, the software, if through a very powerful R & D team, has accumulated a very good software or cloud service for a long time.

After spending a particularly difficult to run with customers in the early stage, the cost of me later became lower and lower, and the reputation effect was formed. The cost of acquisition in the future will become lower and lower. Margin will become higher and higher. It is a good thing to have cash flow and profit margins.

Second, think from the dimension of time.

Over time and evolution, the development of enterprise business is becoming easier or more difficult.

How to identify the advantages and disadvantages of enterprises?

See if this company is doing long -term correct things.

Think about what this company has made and how entrepreneurs make decisions. For example, you can look at capital expenses, and see what time and where the boss spends money.

First -class entrepreneurs increased capital expenses on a large scale when the industry was most pessimistic; second -term entrepreneurs increased capital expenses on a large scale when the industry was the most optimistic.

Looking at the real estate of the past 5-10 years, those developers who have been eliminated in the past year have been large-scale plenty of leverage to get land in the early stage. The visionary entrepreneurs contracted as early as two or three years ago, and did not add leverage. It was not until this year or the industry's lowest slapstick.

This is actually a kind of investment thinking. The process of entrepreneurial decision -making is a vein with investment. An excellent fund manager seems to be an excellent entrepreneur.

For the same thing, everyone shows that insights are different, and insights are enough to make long -term correct policies at critical nodes. So the most important quality of fund managers is lifelong learning. Only by studying for life can you form an iterative system in your investment framework and system, and your cognitive ability can continue to jump. Make long -term correct decisions at critical moments. 08 Do not label yourself, invest in open -minded hearts to invest

Ask a lot of fund managers to drift in style, how do you deal with market fluctuations?

Zhu Hongyu, I don't think I must set myself in my big disk or a small plate, growing up, or value, or I only invest in the boundary of a certain industry, which will bring a prejudice.

Investment is a very tolerant and open career, don't frame yourself.

There are two ways to think in this world, the first is hedgehog, and the second is a fox. Many people are hedgehog thinking, one tendon to the end. I don't say that there is a problem with the thinking of a tendon in the end, but there is a particularly large loophole in Western economics -it is static and balanced, and reality is a highly complex system. , Non -linear.

In such a system, how does a person de -evolving and iterative methodology and investment framework? My answer is that we should learn from nature, not to learn from a static, balanced system.

The nature of nature provides the free choice of various creatures, providing diversity, representing various mutations. Regardless of genetic mutation or changes in the external environment, these provides the diversity of this world, and individuals choose the situation that is most suitable for the environment.

Ask so you will adjust according to market changes?

Zhu Hongyu is not like this. I think this is a way of thinking.

Investment should be an open system. Only in the open system can achieve entropy, and the closed system will always increase entropy.

Investors should also be open -minded. They cannot simply label themselves to a certain style of label. They must continue to enter new energy, constantly reflect on themselves, and continue to do long -term correct things.

09 "OK" is a long -term depth study based on the supply side

Ask if you think of the certainty in investment?

In general, Zhu Hongyu remained in awe for all high -profile and low barriers.

Gao Jinggui and low barriers usually mean high valuations but long -term competitive landscapes are weak, and long -term winning rates are low. Even if the market in the low barriers has expanded 5 times, companies can not make money because money is used on large -scale capital expenditures. Finally, the current value of free cash flow stickers is likely to be 0, which cannot create value for shareholders.

On the other hand, long -term industry barriers are a good decision. We must pay attention to the increasingly better and stable competition pattern, but the current industry is at the bottom.

"OK" is based on long -term depth research on the supply side, rather than blind short -term predictions on the demand side.

"OK" comes from the supply side, not from the short -term demand side. "OK" is based on a long -term depth research on the supply side, not short -term blind prediction on the demand side.

10 The general pattern of the consumer industry has been determined, and the buying company to see the penetration rate, concentration, ARPU value and profit margin

Ask you what you think of the consumer industry?

Most of Zhu Hongyu's consumer industry pattern has been set. Overall, I think that consumer goods will not be large flexible, but there are still many certain stable returns.

11 Follow the opportunity to upgrade related industries in the manufacturing industry

Ask what industries will structural opportunities this year?

Zhu Hongyu I may pay attention to industries related to China's industrial upgrading or manufacturing upgrade, including high -end equipment, industrial services, computer software, cloud computing, and so on.

The logic is very simple. China's per capita GDP is 12,000 US dollars, but if it wants to go to $ 20,000 or even higher, there is only one way to go: completing the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

If China has always been a low -end manufacturing industry, with the conflict of international trade and the rise in local costs, its advantages will become weaker.

Refer to countries and regions that have completed the world from 10,000 US dollars to 20,000 US dollars, such as Japan, South Korea, etc., all rely on the manufacturing industry, they have truly completed the transformation and upgrade.

Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, etc. have fallen into the middle income trap, because they promise to the high benefits of the people, this must be exchanged for foreign exchange through the manufacturing industry, maintaining the exchange rate of the exchange rate through the manufacturing industry and maintaining the exchange rate. strong. At the same time, the government's capital expenditure is increasing. As government liabilities continue to increase, the exchange rate is often unable to stabilize, so a vicious circle will occur.

Generally speaking, China has taken a correct road and maintaining a higher manufacturing ratio, which is related to the vision of common prosperity. Since this path is taken, I think that there will be a lot of opportunities for the upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry.

China's volume is very large, and conflicts are inevitable, so the more difficult it is, the better the company can make the right choice.

12 Optimistic attitude towards Hong Kong stocks

Ask what do you think of the current Hong Kong stocks?

Zhu Hongyu is generally optimistic, but there may be relatively large risks.

Hong Kong stock real estate, property, service, consumption, technology, some manufacturing, and some medical care have opportunities.

We have to spend a lot of energy to study Hong Kong stocks, because if we make mistakes, Hong Kong stocks will give us a lot of money, but if we look right, we can get more than A -shares than A shares than A shares. High returns. What is the logic of Hong Kong stocks and A shares different?

Zhu Hongyu's essential logic is no different, but the Hong Kong stock market pricing is more effective.

Ask the products you are in charge of Hong Kong stocks. What do you plan to do this?

When Zhu Hongyu is right, I personally tend to consider more than more Hong Kong stocks, but I think that research should not be priced by market -driven. Like Hong Kong stocks, real estate companies, real estate companies are much cheaper than A shares, so why not go there over there purchase?

But if the price is not large, then I will buy it in A shares, after all, the price paid for the mistakes of A -shares is less.

13 Global economy may have stagnation

Ask you how do you think of the current global economic pattern?

Zhu Hongyu I have a long -term worry: whether the global economy will rise.

From a historical point of view, this has a large cycle. From before and after World War II to the early 1980s, swelling has been more serious. In this cycle, in addition to developing the economy, countries around the world are pursuing fairness, so the entire global resource allocation efficiency is not high.

After 1980, the world's efficient resource division of labor was carried out. In the beginning, Japan joined the global trading system. Later, it was South Korea and Taiwan. In the 1980s and 1990s, mainland China also joined this global division of labor system.

Although the global interest rate is very low and the capital expenditure is not high, there is no risk of so -called stagflation, but now our balance has begun to return. Between efficiency and fairness, slowly return to fairness. This is the so -called common prosperity of common prosperity. Essence

Almost all countries all over the world are facing splitting, the split between people in the country, high and low income people, the splitting between the wealthy countries and the later wealthy countries, etc. This will lead to the reconstruction of the global resource allocation and division of labor system, the efficiency of allocation efficiency From high efficiency to inefficient or medium inefficiency, the global price center is likely to go up and go down. The worst situation is the stagnation.

In the low interest rate environment in the past ten years, many American companies have only two things after achieving a large amount of cash flow, one is dividend, and the other is to repurchase. Cost. Many companies in Europe and the United States have also become unaware of social responsibility and only serve shareholders.

Therefore, under the change, we have higher requirements for winning rates, because only real good business and good companies can cope with the uncertain world and future.

14 Avenue is very good, and the people are good, and they are unswervingly doing long -term difficulty and correct things.

Asked why he came out of private equity at the end of 2019?

Zhu Hongyu I think on the public offering platform, I am able to learn from the teachings and experiences of public offering and private equity in previous years, and let me realize my ideals on a new platform.

Four or five years ago, I did a very deep inspection of my methodology and system, so frankly said that after I arrived at the Bank of China Financial Management and China Merchants Fund, my investment research system was different from my previous private equity and public offering.

Everyone usually thinks that "failure is the mother of success", but a senior told me that "success is the mother of failure." I took it seriously. Because the probability of success will make people proud and arrogant, making people over -confidence in their own ability, and making wrong decisions.

I like a word in the Tao Te Ching, called "Avenue is very good, and the people are good." The investment of the investment is wide and boundless, but most people love to copy the road from the side of the mountain. And my requirements for myself are to continuously refine my investment methods in the process of learning, and do unswervingly long -term difficulty and correct things.

Ask what should ordinary citizen invest this year?

Zhu Hongyu's ordinary investors must invest in their own long -term period, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements. Between stock bonds, the proportion of shares may gradually increase this year. But I do n’t recommend that investors with low risk capabilities ALL in the same style of assets. The correct approach is to diversify asset allocation within their own ability. Essence

15 Lifelong learning is long -term goal

Ask to describe yourself in a word?

Zhu Hongyu's lifelong learning, this is also my goal that I have always worked hard.

Ask the high investment master?

Zhu Hongyu, I prefer John Dempton and Charlie Munger. I bought a book "Dunpon taught you reverse investment" more than ten years ago.

Dunpon has two major characteristics -reverse investment and global investment. Dunpon and Munger have a common characteristic, that is, they are particularly widely opened, their mentality is particularly open, they are very good at learning, and they live and freely live.

Ask what hobbies do you usually have?

Zhu Hongyu Mange has a hobby: fishing. I also like fishing. I have almost no other special hobbies except reading books.

But now fishing is less, so I read the book.

How many books are recommended?

Zhu Hongyu's "Poor Charlie Book", "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and "Anti -fragile". Among them, "Anti -fragile" is one of the four parts of the "Uncertainty", and the other three "Black Swans", "Fools of Random Strolling" and "Asymmetric Risk" are also recommended.

Ask what kind of person I hope your child will be?

Zhu Hongyu Xue is as difficult as a qualified father to explore his investment methods. It is necessary to learn to communicate and communicate, but also always reflect on himself.For my children's education, I will not interfere with the children too much, as long as they want them to do things seriously and be honest.Especially for boys, willpower is the most important. When encountering various difficulties, he can be a tough person.

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