Stepping on the "Pig Cycle" air outlet, the concepts of two hundred billion pork soared, the fund staged the "Bangbang" myth "investment vane"

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Chen Feng reporter Qiu Li Beijing report

The price of pork price rises "swipe the screen" capital market. The daily limit of pork stocks, the pig -stage goods increased, and the price of pigs rose by 34.67%for more than a month. The super "pig cycle" came?

On July 7, the A -share pork sector soared again. As of the closing, the pork sector rose nearly 3%, hitting a new high since February 2021; the daily limit of Aonon's biology, the stock price rose 85%during the year; Tianbang Food, Tiankang, Tiankang, Tiankang Biological, Tangshen, and Jin Xinnong all rose more than 5%; the two major 100 billion giants Muyuan's shares rose nearly 17%during the year, and Wen -style shares rose by 28%during the year.

In the past three days, the main funds of over 2.2 billion yuan have "entered" pork concept stocks, ranking first in A shares. Among them, the stocks with the largest net inflow of the main funds are Muyuan, New Hope and Wen's shares, with net inflows 1.052 billion yuan, 388 million yuan, and 283 million yuan. The breeding ETF rose more than 3.5%, and the net inflow of more than 66 million yuan for two consecutive days was over 66 million yuan.

Pig prices have risen

In fact, since June this year, the price of pigs has risen continuously, up 34.67%in more than a month. The latest monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that as of 14:00 on July 6, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 28.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 6.8%over July 5. In the short term alone, this price increased by 30 % compared with 21.17 yuan/kg on June 1st.

At the same time, pig futures prices have also risen, and the main contract of pigs has touched 22,000 yuan/ton upwards. As of the close of July 7, it has risen 3.12%within the day.

It is worth noting that the National Development and Reform Commission "stabilized the price of pigs" three times. On July 4, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold a special meeting of the pig market guarantee and stabilized price. On July 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued two news to focus on the pig market. At a symposium held by the National Development and Reform Commission on the 6th, relevant experts said that the supply of pork markets in the second half of the year is generally guaranteed, and the price of pork does not have the basis of continuous rise.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, said in an interview with the China Times reporter that for the price of pigs, from the perspective of supply and demand of the entire market, the northern region was affected by the production capacity of 2021. The amount of quantities has been significantly reduced; and large -scale farmers in the south are affected by the rainy season, and the outlets have also experienced a certain degree of phased effects, which has led to a decrease in the supply sources of the entire pork market. Therefore, under such a big background, the summer is the off -season of relatively pork consumption, but because many farmers are obviously optimistic about the later market, there is a phenomenon of selling fences, which actually directly leads to the lack of supply of the entire market. In the case of maintaining relatively rigidity, the large background of insufficient market supply directly leads to the rapid increase in pork prices. This is the core reason for the current increase in pork prices.

Secondly, the previous state of pork prices continued to be sluggish. In fact, it has lasted for a period of time. With the gradual improvement of the national overall regulation and control policy, the supply of pork has declined to a certain extent. This is an objective law of market development. Therefore From the perspective of the development of the entire market, it is normal to rise to a certain increase in pork prices. In a sense, the pork cycle has shown signs of bottoming out.

Third, from the perspective of long -term market development, the current pork cycle has indeed begun to enter the possibility of the rising cycle. For the current entire pork market, although the market is still in a state of unbalanced supply and demand, it does not rule out the possibility of pork prices in the future. It has a certain market rising space, so for the entire pork company, it will be a good situation.

"Pig Cycle" fund outbreak

Independent economist Wang Chikun told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that the cycle trajectory of the "pig cycle" roughly roughly rose meat prices, sow stocks increased significantly, pig supply increased, meat prices fell, and a large number of elimination sows were eliminated. The price of meat rose, this pig cycle was 2-3 years. At the end of the pig cycle in May, the main sign is that the central reserve frozen pork and storage flow rate is higher. On the one hand, the current price of pork is gradually stabilized; on the one hand, it shows that the market is full of expectations for the start of a new round of pig cycle. The consistency of the medium and long -term market can also be regarded as a sign of the bottom of the pig cycle.

Promoted by the rise in pig prices, the pig cycle fund ushered in the outbreak, many public funds were densely layout, and the pig concept stocks of well -known funds occupied the top ten heavy warehouse stocks "half of the country".

Among them, the "Pig Mao" Muyuan shares in the third quarter of 2021 were only 146 million shares. According to the latest data in the first quarter of 2022, public funds have held more than 298 million shares, with a position of nearly 16.96 billion yuan, holding it, holding holdings, holding holdings, holding holdings. The stocks have doubled; the other trillion giant Wen's shares in the third quarter of last year were only 62.29 million shares. In the first quarter of this year, the public offering had positioned nearly 447 million shares.

In the index fund, the pork theme fund standing on the wind is also beautiful. According to Oriental Fortune CHOICE data, there are currently eight theme funds of agriculture, animal husbandry and fishing industry. Among them, the Agricultural Selection LOF owned by Qianhai Open source Fund has risen 19%in the past month, reaching the top of the top. Cathay Pacific CSI Animal Husbandry Breeding ETF rose 16%a month. Among the active equity funds, Caitong value mixed and UBS information consumption mixed average pork concept stocks. According to the latest data in the first quarter of 2022, more than 5 of the top ten heavy stocks of the two funds have more than 5 pig stocks. The net worth of SDIC's UBS information consumption has risen 12.98%in the past month; the net value of Caitong Value has risen by 19.49%in the past month.

In fact, Jin Zicai, the tens of billions of fund managers of Caitong value momentum, began to lay out breeding stocks as early as last year. From the perspective of holding, Muyuan, Wen's shares, Tiankang Biological, Tangren, Tianbang, Aunong Bio, etc. List in the top ten heavy stocks.

To accurately step on Zhongfeng, Jin Zi is a small fund manager with a positive income since this year. According to the list of the most profitable funds for money in the first quarter of this year, all the four funds under Jin Zicai managed all on the list and staged the myth of the "Bullet". As of July 7, Caitong Duo strategy Fuxin's net value increased by 23.12%a month, and the proper net value of Caitong growth was close to 19.75%a month.

Zhang Zhuran, chief researcher at Jian Fund, told the reporter of the Huaxia Times that the end of the bear market that fell in this round of pigs was in the spring of this year, because of a long time before the decline and high companies such as corn and soybean meal. Closing, coupled with the impact of the epidemic factors for the catering industry, the consumption of pigs has not been strong since the beginning of this year, and the pig breeding industry has once again ushered in a round of supply -side reforms. By the beginning of this year, the price of pigs has continued to kill pigs in small and medium farmers. The "price inertia" caused by meat lasted the last period of the last period of time. It can be regarded as the final stage of the bear market. At present, it has clearly entered the initial level of the bull market. This inflection point can be confirmed.

Zhang Li, managing director of Dafei Capital, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that in mid -to -late May, pork stocks "did not light off the off -season". After continuing to rise, pork entered the "right side of the cycle". Continue to watch the bullish in the short term. Since consumption after the epidemic has begun to recover, and the second half of the year is the peak season of pork, the demand for pork will be better than the first half of the year.

Editor: Editor Yan Hui: Xia Shencha

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