Yang Delong: The heavy decline in US stocks affects the short -term trend of A shares.

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On Monday, due to the sharp decline in US stocks last Friday, the A -share market rebounded after a large low opening. The A -share market has not been dragged down by US stocks in the recent independence of U.S. stocks. The main reason is that because the positions of A shares and US stocks are different, U.S. stocks are near the highest valuation of history. At the bottom of the historical valuation, the bottom -up rising stage, coupled with the decline in U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike shrinkage, which caused investors to worry about liquidity tightening caused a great impact on U.S. stocks, so U.S. stocks have fallen to the bottom. The main policy goal of the People's Bank of China is not anti -inflation but steadily growing. Therefore, it has not tightened the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary policy. Since the beginning of this year, the global central bank has raised interest rates more than 60 times. Even the European Central Bank, which has been maintaining a loose policy, also announced on June 9 that it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. Global economic growth has formed large constraints. On June 8th, the Central Bank of India announced that the repurchase interest rate was raised by 50 basis points to 4.9%, which is the key interest rate of the second consecutive month of the Central Bank of India.

The Fed, known as the World Bank, has adopted the process of accelerating the rate hikes for rare high inflation in the past 40 years. Inflation has become a global phenomenon. This round of inflation is related to the Federal Reserve in the past two years. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted a zero interest rate and unlimited loose policies in the past two years to release a large amount of liquidity, spawn asset bubbles, plus 2 this year 2 this year 2 this year. The outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict in the month, the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural products pushed the level of inflation, causing high global inflation. On June 7th, the World Central Bank also proposed that the risk of stagnation in its global outlook has hindered the growth. Essence

The Central Bank of the World has lowered its global growth forecast from 5.7%last year to 2.9%this year, far lower than January expectations 4.1%. The next year of the US presidential election starts to cut interest rates again, in order to rebuild the economy after the next round of destructive stagnation.

Although the Fed and the European Central Bank ended up for decades of super loose monetary policy and through continuous interest rate hikes to respond to the rise in prices, if measured according to historical standards, the current interest rate level is still low. Recently feature.

At the end of last year, I released the top ten prophecies in 2022 that the risk of decline in US stocks in 2022 is increasing, and the bull market may end for more than ten years, which may bring greater risks for US stock investors. Because A shares and U.S. stocks have not been high in the past ten years, the recent decline in US stocks has not had a great impact on the trend of A shares. The A -share market continues to rebound and rebounds, and the previous A -share performance is weak, which is valuable under the background of the global stock market adjustment. The reason is that the factors affecting the current economic growth are improving. Here we need to popularize the concept of "marginal". This concept is very important in economics. Large, but compared to April and May, the indicators in various aspects are improving margin, which will bring optimistic expectations to investors. The factors that really affect the market trend are actually expected futures, marginal changes, not the current absolute value. This is why I expect the economy to bottom out in June, and the stock market has bottomed out in advance at the end of April. Although there are thousands of or even hundreds of millions of participants in the stock market, investors who really have the ability to pricing are some clever money. They will be a prophet of Chunjiang Water Warm Duck. It will cause the stock market to bottom out in advance, and the same is true when seeing the top. Prior to May 1st, I suggest that you cherish the timing of building high -quality stocks and high -quality funds at 3,000 points. The order order can first consider new energy and then consumption.

Because the new energy has maintained a high degree of prosperity, and the impact of the epidemic is relatively small, the new energy in this wave of rebound is the first to drive the entire market's popularity. The Qianhai Open Source Clean Energy Fund I managed to lay out new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and other industries in the diversity to seize the opportunity of carbon neutralization. In the middle and long term, new energy replacement of traditional energy is the general trend, and investors are advised to actively deploy new energy leading stocks and new energy funds.

The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the national economic operation on the 15th, and release macroeconomic data in May. In April, my country's economic downward pressure increased, and many economic indicators slowed down. Whether the economic indicators in May can make a bottom -up stabilization as the key to judging the second quarter and the second half of the year, so investors are more concerned about the data of May 15th. In fact, the economic data in May will improve in May compared to April, but it will not rise too much. Because Shanghai only resumed production on June 1st and released, the economic data in June would recover well, which will further boost investor confidence. The 33 measures to stabilize the economic market issued by the State Council gradually landed, which will fully improve the confidence and expectations of the current market entities for future economic development. It will also accelerate the stability and restoration of the industrial chain and supply chain affected by the epidemic. It can be confirmed that the period of China's economic trough has passed, and the economy will gradually stabilize. Observing the implementation of economic policies is more critical. From the basic data of the manufacturing PMI that has been released, my country's economic recovery is strong. From the perspective of advanced indicators, PMI was 49.6%in May, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Although it was still under 50%of the split water points, it has risen from the previous month. Essence Compared with April and May, the overall financial data of financial data has exceeded expected growth. According to the People's Bank of China data, RMB loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan in May, an increase of 392 billion yuan year -on -year. In April, the new RMB loan was 645.4 billion yuan. In May, the scale of social financing increased by 2.79 trillion yuan. Financial data exceeding expectations show that the policy of steady growth is increasing, and it will soon promote the recovery of domestic demand and stabilize economic growth expectations.

From the perspective of import and export, the total imports and exports of my country in the first five months of this year were 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3%year -on -year, of which exports increased by 11.4%and imports increased by 4.7%. The trade surplus expanded by 47.6%to 1.84 trillion yuan. In May, the new export order index and the import order index increased a significant increase from the previous month, which means that foreign trade is continuing to improve. Although it is still facing uncertain factors such as the slowdown in international economic growth and the rise in commodity prices and the fluctuation of exchange rate fluctuations, my country's foreign trade still maintains a stable growth, which is commendable.

Therefore, in terms of internal and external factors, the economic impact of the epidemic is recovering, and the maximum consumption affected by the epidemic will also rise with the relaxation of the epidemic control measures. Nowadays, consumer places have canceled nucleic acid negative requirements, people travel is more convenient, and travel -related travel consumption is gradually recovering. Catering and retail consumption has recovered to rise.

Although the epidemic was repeatedly affected in the short term, some areas recovered slowly. However, from the national perspective, it has been significantly improved compared with April and May, and the performance of consumer stocks is also expected to relay the opportunity to recover the prospects. Of course, new energy is a high degree of prosperity and less affected by the epidemic. The plate, so the rebound is strong. Even some new energy leading stocks have created historical new high stock prices. New energy vehicle leaders have exceeded the 10 trillion market value mark, and the consumption rebound is more eased, which is not related to the high high energy. However, we must seize the medium- and long -term trends without investing in value. You can see the clue. On the whole, my country's economy is now gradually coming out of the influence of the epidemic, and the bottom of the bottom is rising. With the introduction of multiple stability and stable economic policies, there will be a good opportunity for the market outlook. New energy replacing traditional energy is the general trend. Everyone can continue to seize the opportunity of new energy leaders or clean energy funds to lay out carbon neutralized and beneficiated sectors. As the epidemic is effectively controlled, consumption will also usher in the opportunity to recover. Consumer white horse stocks are a variety worthy of long -term investment.

Responsible editor: Shao Yuxiang | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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