He once shouted "Live" but chased the land. Can you still believe Vanke and Yu Liang this time?

Produced ｜ Company Research Line Real Estate Group

Text ｜ Cooky

Compared with three months ago, at the end of June, the shareholders' meeting, Vanke executives such as Yu Liang and Zhu Jiusheng seemed calm and calm.

Since becoming Vanke's "head", Yu Liang seems to have been a singer in the real estate industry. But recently, the industry pessimist has rarely turned. Yu Liang said, "From the short term, the market has bottomed out, but recovery is a slow and mild process."

Yu Liang's words are conservative in optimism. During the downside of real estate, the challenges and pressures faced by Vanke and Yu Liang will not be less than 3 months ago.

01 Just say that you do n’t have a rebound, Yu Liang is optimistic and conservative

At the shareholders meeting on June 28, the first question faced by Yu Liang was how to treat the current market situation, will the environment become worse?

Unlike the harsh remarks such as "surviving" in the past, this time, Yu Liang rarely said some markets and shareholders' love. Yu Liang said, "In the short term, the market has bottomed out, but recovery is a slow and mild process. This is the main point of the market I expressed to the market."

Although Yu Liang only expressed its optimistic about the real estate industry in the short term, and only said that the bottoming out did not mention the rebound, on June 29th and 30th, Vanke's stock price increased by 11%, and the market gave its own views.

There are four main reasons for Yu Liang's judgment of the real estate market:

First of all, the government has adjusted some policies for the healthy development of the real estate industry, which has a positive impact on the industry;

Secondly, because of the delayed demand of the epidemic, some supplements were available in June;

Furthermore, there are two peaks in the real estate industry each year, namely June and December, and December is the peak of settlement. In June, it is important for the first half of the year's sales performance. It is usually used to increase its efforts.

In the end, the base in May is relatively low, and the month -on -month increase will be improved.

Yu Liang went on to further explain, "The short -term market has bottomed out, but I did not use a rebound. Instead, I said that recovery and recovery still take time." Among the above four -point rising factors, except for the policy is the mid -term factor, the other three other three, and the other three three Points are short -term factor and cannot last.

Yu Liang gave his own predictions for the overall real estate industry. Sales data in June increased from the previous month, decreased year -on -year but narrowed, and it took time to slowly go up from the bottom.

In June 2022, Vanke's sales were 47.18 billion yuan, an increase of 53.3%month -on -month, a decrease of 30.2%year -on -year, and a narrowing of 16.4%from May.

According to Kerry data, in June 2022, the sales amount of the top 100 housing companies was 586.98 billion, an increase of 59.6%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 41.3%, and the decline was narrowed by 17.8%from May. The data performance was consistent with the judgment of Yu Liang.

However, after short -term stimulation such as replenishment and sales peak, the long -term trend of the real estate industry is not very optimistic.

According to Yu Liang, the real estate industry is a 10 trillion -level market. The industry has a history of thousands of years. It is often new and often.

However, Yu Liang also believes that in view of the current population status, population structure, income level, and the country's guidance principles of the industry, the real estate industry must enter a new stage of development, and it cannot follow the old logic. I look forward to returning to the past peak. Data and scale.

Yu Liang's optimistic and conservative attitude is injecting confidence to the market, but what Yu Liang does not say how long the long abart greatness period will be. If Vanke must use "survive" to describe themselves, the days of small and medium -sized real estate companies will only be more sad.

02 The market decline is exceeded, and it is difficult to stop falling to stability and increase

In 2021, it was the third year of a decline in net profit in the 31st years since Vanke's listing. To this end, at the performance meeting in March, Vanke's management set up a "military order", and the performance must be stabilized.

At this shareholders' meeting, Vanke President Zhu Jiusheng once again said that if you look at the two or three years of time, Vanke will achieve three goals:

First, the performance must be stopped and stabilized, and the decline must be stopped;

Second, the development business should continue to maintain the first camp of the industry;

Third, in the industry, the first shift from real estate development to real estate development, operations, and services.

In the first half of 2021, Vanke's contract sales fell 215.3 billion, a decrease of 39.3%year -on -year. The cumulative sales of the top 100 housing companies fell by 50.8%in the first half of the year. Vanke's performance was better than the industry as a whole. But Zhu Jiusheng said that there was estimates for the market down early or in March, but he never thought of it so seriously.

The performance of the market is usually exceeded expected. For example, Vanke shouted "survive" in 2018, but the market turning point is better than Vanke's expectations. In the face of the hull of the real estate market, Vanke was unable to know the unity, and eventually chased the market FOMO's emotions.

In 2021, Vanke's net profit decreased by 45.7%year -on -year, mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin. In 2021, Vanke's gross profit margin was 21.8%, a year -on -year decrease of 7.4 percentage points.

In this regard, Yu Liang explained that "Although the company realized earlier in the industry that high -speed growth will end, ashamed, our actions have not resolutely get rid of high growth inertia. At that time, investment in some cities chased high and advanced, and the market judgment was too optimistic. The investment expectations of some projects did not realize, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin. "

At the performance meeting in March, Vanke said that he would improve profits by adhering to high -quality investment. Cancel the previous quota distribution system, start centralized control of investment, and improve the requirements for investment, including project profitability, team operation capabilities, post -investment management, etc. Compared with March, this time Vanke's management confidence and confidence are significantly more confident. I wish Jiusheng revealed that in the first five months of 2022, Vanke voted for 13 plots, of which 9 plots could be available in 2022. The cash flow of 6 plots can be returned within the year. Essence

However, Vanke also shouted "survive", and at the same time, the history of getting land at a high price eventually led to a net profit in 2021 halved. This time, whether investors can trust Vanke's management may wait until the interim and annual report is verified.

03 Yu Liang again mentioned the sea of ​​sky, hoping to judge the transformation with a new concept

The third goal of Vanke's mid -term, that is, the transition from development business to a diversified business, is the most difficult of the three goals.

In 2021, Vanke's total revenue was 452.8 billion, of which real estate development business revenue was 426.5 billion yuan, accounting for 94%, and other properties, warehousing, long -term rental apartments, commercial real estate and other businesses accounted for less than 10%of the reports.

I wish Jiusheng's summary of Vanke's transformation and saying such a sentence, "Vanke was too optimistic that year, and the time required for the transformation, the difficulty encountered, and the ability to establish it were seriously insufficient."

In 2021, the income of all things was 24.04 billion yuan, an increase of 32.1%year -on -year; logistics business revenue was 3.16 billion, a year -on -year increase of 68.9%; the leasing business revenue was 1.89 billion, an increase of 68.9%year -on -year; the commercial business revenue was 7.62 billion, a year -on -year increase of 20.6%.

From the perspective of the income scale and industry scale of these businesses, it is almost impossible to expect them to be compared with real estate development.

Earlier, Vanke's management said that it is hoped that institutions or markets can use new valuation models to evaluate Vanke's new business. Recently, Vanke once again expressed that he hopes that the market can use new concepts to determine whether the transformation is successful, not just indicators such as income and profits.

Haitian Weiye is an example of Yu Liang's often compared. In 2021, Haitianwei Industry revenue was 25 billion yuan, net profit was 6.8 billion, and the current market value of Haitian exceeded 400 billion.

From the perspective of performance, Haitian's income is less than 6%of Vanke, and its net profit is less than 30%of Vanke, but the market value is 1.8 times that of Vanke. Yu Liang once complained that "one dollar of Haitianwei Industry is different from Vanke a dollar."

Haitian and Vanke's industries and their respective business models are very different, resulting in a lot of differences in the valuation system. Do not discuss it here.

Taking the property as an example, from 2019 to 2021, the overall gross profit margin of all things is 17.7%, 18.5%, and 17.0%, respectively.

The interest rate level of the property-based property enterprise property is between 20%-25%. The Country Garden service with the same scale is at the same scale. The gross profit margin from 2019 to 2021 is 31.7%, 34.0%, and 30.7%, respectively.

"The service industry should be an industry with an ordinary level of profit." Vanke's management uses this reason to explain the low gross profit of everything. Can it be said?

It has always been regarded as a pessimistic of the industry, and now it is slightly optimistic that the real estate industry has a short bottom -up bottom. However, after the short -term stimulus factors disappear, the industry and Vanke will return to the stage of "boiling". Next, Yu Liang also took Vanke management to complete the commitment to stop falling and stabilized, diversified transformation, and the challenge was still there.

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