Grab progress!In the first half of the year, the issuance of 3.4 trillion special bonds. What are the fiscal "incremental policies" in the second half of the year?

Author: Chen Yi issue

Local government special bonds (hereinafter referred to as special bonds) are currently a major starting point for the stability of the economy, and the second half of the year has attracted much attention from the market.

According to statistics from the public debt issuance of debt issuance, the scale of new special bonds for local governments nationwide in the first half of this year was about 3.4 trillion yuan, a new high in recent years, and basically completed the target of completing the debt issuance tasks required by the State Council in the first half of the year.

Many fiscal and tax experts told the First Finance that how to quickly use this fund in the second half of the year became the key, try to avoid old problems such as idle funds and misappropriation of funds, truly form a physical workload, and give full play to the investment effect of bond funds. The issuance of new special debt in the second half of the year has entered the "empty window period", which is worthy of attention on the impact of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year, especially the infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter. You can consider using the special debt quota of the stock and the use of special debt in advance in advance to appropriately increase the debt lifting in the second half of the year in the second half of the year. The quota is to invest in stabilizing the economy.

True spending better than 3 trillion funds into the key

This year's special debt issuance progress can be said to be unprecedented. Most special bonds were issued in the second half of the year last year, and this year, the opposite was concentrated in the first half of the year to give play to the steady growth effect of bond funds as soon as possible.

Among the new special bonds of 3.65 trillion yuan this year, 3.45 trillion yuan has been issued to various places for project construction. The State Council requested 3.45 trillion yuan to add special bonds to basically issued before the end of June, and strive to use it basically before the end of August. As of the first half of this year, about 3.4 trillion yuan of special debt was issued in various places, with a issuance of about 99%.

Professor Ji Fuxing, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the First Finance that this year's special debt has gone forward. The overall scale, issuance speed, and expenditure progress will be reached in recent years. Effective investment, better achieve the goals of stable growth, shortcomings, and benefit people.

"On the basis of the concentration of special debt, bank credit, development financial instruments, etc. form a strong supplement and cooperation. In the future, infrastructure investment will maintain a high growth, which will help stabilize the expectations of all parties and stabilize the macroeconomic market." Ji Fu Xingxing Say.

How to really spend this huge amount of bond funds in the next step becomes the key. According to the public information of the audit departments in various places in recent years, the management of some special debt projects is not strictly managed, and the existence of debt funds has a certain universality, which all affect the effect of special debt funds.

For example, the Audit Department recently disclosed that the audit found that 10 regions illegally used the special bond funds of 13.663 billion yuan for corporate operations, personnel wages, etc., and 21.7 billion yuan of special bond funds in 33 regions were idle for more than 1 year.

Ji Fuxing said that in recent years, problems such as "funds and other projects" and funds have been greatly improved. However, after the progress of this year has accelerated, a small number of localities have not solid work in the early stage and the management of management.

Professor Wen Laicheng of the Central University of Finance and Economics told First of the Finance that the scale of special bonds has increased rapidly in recent years, and the use of special debt funds is critical. For example, the current issue of special debt funds is mainly due to the fact that the preparation work is not solid, and there are some problems in the project itself. In terms of special debt funds, the Ministry of Finance has regulated relevant documents. At present, it must be strictly implemented, and the salary of special debt funds shall be given strict places.

Affected by the epidemic, large -scale tax refund policies, and downturn in the land market this year, the local fiscal revenue in the first five months has declined, while rigid expenditures have not diminished, and local fiscal revenue and expenditure contradictions have increased. The central government has supported local "guaranteeing basic livelihood, salary, and operation of operation" by increasing the transfer of transfer payment.

Ji Fuxing believes that in order to avoid the abroad of funds, it is necessary to strengthen the incentive and restraint mechanism based on the full life cycle of the bond project. First of all, before the issuance of bonds, strictly control the project audit, prioritize projects with high maturity and construction conditions, or prioritize projects under construction.

"Secondly, after the issuance of bonds, comprehensively promote penetrating monitoring, strengthen supervision and rectification, and focus on the construction progress and physical workload of the project after the funds to the project unit. It is clear that when the limit of the annual special bonds is linked to the actual expenditure progress in various places, "said Jifu Xing.

The Ministry of Finance previously stated that it will achieve penetrating monitoring of special debt projects in July this year. This move is mainly through informatization to understand the construction and operation of the project unit, focusing on the debt funds from the state treasury to the project unit in the future. The purpose is to promote the physical workload as soon as possible.

Ji Fuxing said that in the end, it is difficult for projects that are difficult to continue to build and implement in the short term. The idle funds are used to adjust the procedures for other mature projects that meet the requirements, or use it across regions to be used in place with good management and effective needs of the remaining projects.

The Ministry of Finance has regulated the adjustment of special debt use last year. In recent years, some places have adjusted idle funds to other projects.

Recently, including Guangdong and other places, it has been clear that cities with slower use of special debt expenditure will be recovered in a certain proportion of unreal expenditure quotas, and cities across regions to cities with good management and effective demand for remaining projects.

Whether to issue special debt to attract attention

"The current downward pressure on the economy is still large. There are still many uncertain factors in the second half of the year. According to changes in the economic and social situation, whether to consider increasing the issuance of special debt to stabilize the economy is a major highlight of the future special debt." Wen Laicheng said.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told the First Finance that the need for incremental fiscal policies in the next stage was greater. It was mainly due to the reduction of revenue caused by the expected epidemic and the need for expenditure increases. If the policy does not increase, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 will be high and low. As the advancement of the advance and disposable financial resources will not increase, the land transfer income will decline sharply, and the infrastructure and economic growth in the fourth quarter may fall. Jifu Xing said that currently requires advanced planning, strengthening "major projects" and "incremental policy" dual reserves, combined with the development needs of the situation, and launching some incremental policies to better achieve cyclical regulation and ensure stable and rapid economic growth in the second half of the year. Realize the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year or stay in a reasonable range.

In fact, the State Council has recently taken some stable investment measures.

On June 30th, the National Frequently decided to use policy and development financial instruments to raise 300 billion yuan through the issuance of financial bonds to supplement the capital of major projects including new infrastructure, but not exceeding 50 of all capitals. %, Or the capital of special debt projects. On June 1st, the National Council decided that for the construction of financial support infrastructure, it is necessary to increase the credit quota of 800 billion yuan in policy banks, and establish a key project list docking mechanism.

Zhao Wei, the chief economist of Guojin Securities, told the First Finance that the "quasi -finance" in the second half of the year was making efforts to increase 800 billion yuan in policy, developed loan quota, and created 300 billion yuan in policy and development financial instruments. Effectively supplemented by finance as a budget. The rest of the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap can be considers to solve it by using the special debt quota of the stock. At the end of last year, the amount of the special debt of the stock was about 1.5 trillion yuan. It is expected that the feasible plan is hundreds of billions of yuan, so that most of the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap can be made up. However, uneven distribution of the remaining limits, insufficient high -quality project reserves, etc., may affect the "addition" effect of special debt.

In addition to the use of special debt quotas for stocks, another way to increase the special debt quota of the industry in the industry is to issue some special debt quotas in 2023 in advance, and adjust the budget to issue this special debt amount next year to the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, there are experts issuing special Treasury bonds, which can be used for major infrastructure project construction as 2020.

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