How to valuation of the morning light of "not selling pen"?

How much imagination will there be in the Chinese version of LOFT?

In the eight years after listing in 2015, the highest increase in the stock price of Chenguang stationery has increased by more than 14 times, bringing generous returns to investors, and was once named "stationery Mao".

01 Once the best student

In March of this year, the company announced that the simplicity of securities was changed to Chenguang (603899.SH).

From 2015 to 2021 before renamed, Chenguang's operating income increased by 4.7 times, CAGR (compound growth rate) was as high as 29.40%; net profit increased 3.5 times, and the net interest rate was stable at about 10%per year; 25.11%. As a comparison, the average annual report of Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) was 30.35%.

Source: Flush iFind, Alpha Factory Organization

However, in the past two years, especially after the "dual reduction" policy, the epidemic in the second half of 2021 broke out in multiple points across the country. The company's production and operations have been affected very obvious, and revenue growth and net profit growth have reached a new low in the past two years.

The total operating income year -on -year growth rate, source: the same flowers smooth iFind, Alpha Factory finishing

Net profit transformation map, source: the same flowers and smooth iFind, Alpha Factory finishing

The most worried about growing stocks is Davis Double Kill with a decline in performance. In case the stationery business is really not good, where is the next valuation support point of Chenguang Co., Ltd.? Is this renamed a new strategy and imagination?

02 From traditional stationery to the office channel

Since its listing in 2015, there are roughly three core businesses of Chenguang Co., Ltd.: First, traditional stationery categories, mainly divided into office stationery, writing tools, and student stationery. The current revenue proportion is more than 50 %, and the main profits are contributed; (Kolip), the scale of 7.76 billion revenue, and one of the competitors, and the gap between the Deli Group with a revenue of about 10 billion yuan, gradually narrowed; the third is the business of retail stores, including the Mainurachi Life Museum and the Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency. brand.

Source: Flush iFind, Alpha Factory Organization

When it comes to the traditional business sector, the overall awareness of the public in the stationery business is relatively low in unit prices, which is only suitable for the category of a certain customer group, more like fast -moving consumer goods; The turnover and growth rate of the stationery industry is not as good as other new consumer goods.

Chen Guang's stationery business has its own unique business model.

First of all, tell users that the cost of "my pen is easy to use" is relatively high. The user at first realization is not obvious. After using it slowly for a while, you can feel the change psychologically, and then the subsequent communication will become easier.

Second, the marketing chain of the stationery industry is long, and channel construction and user mental cultivation are very slow. The well -known in the market is some old brands. The new consumption of "artistic" burning money is unable to go in this industry.

Third, office stationery and student stationery are the core support points of the industry, with a long product life cycle. Student stationery users cover school children to graduate from college. The concentration of school -age children is not highly concentrated, and the newly designed stationery design can bring a pleasant attraction point to learning, and it will also increase the repurchase rate accordingly.

After graduating from college, few people use study stationery again. However, for Chenguang's shares, demand is transformed into another form: from student stationery to B -end office stationery.

Direct sales of office is a new breakthrough point found in the stationery business of traditional student stationery business, and it is also a risk hedge "tool".

Kolipu, established in 2013, is a direct sales platform of Chenguang.

Since the listing of Chenguang Co., Ltd., Koli's revenue has risen from 227 million in 2015 to 7.76 billion in 2021, and the gross profit margin fell from 15%to 9.37%in 2021, but the net interest rate rose from -10.6%to 3.1 3.1 %, The scale effect is increasingly prominent.

In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of this sector increased by 46.40%year -on -year, and continued to maintain a high -speed growth trend.

According to the data of the Yibang think tank, the scale of the large -scale office stationery market is about 2.26 trillion in 2020, which is still in the growth stage.

The size of the office material market, Source: Zhejiang Business Securities Research Institute

If Chenguang shares enters the office business through Kelipu and make up for the decline in writing stationery, then the business of cultural and creative grocery collection stores has created a new scene of cultural and creative supplies.

03 Cultural Innovation Scenery

The large retail store business mentioned in the financial report is mainly cultural and creative grocery collection stores, including the two brands of Chenguang Life Museum and Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency.

The Chenuang Life Museum was founded in May 2013. There are many categories for students aged 8-15.

However, the strategy of the Chenguang Life Museum's strategy from stationery, cultural and creative to a full -category one -stop shopping store seems to be unsuccessful. The scale of the Chenguang Life Museum began to shrink in 2017. In the first half of 2021, the storefront had decreased to 60.

Jiumu Hybrid is the "upgraded version" of the Chenguang Life Museum. It is positioned as a cultural and creative grocery collection store that is "visible, cocoa", including 8 major types of products including hand -made, handbook stationery, and daily home daily use.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, there were 472 stores in Jiumu Miscels, of which 321 directly operated stores (accounting for 68%) and 151 franchise stores (32%).

According to Jiu Mu Miscellanea in April 2021, the number of members has reached 3 million, more than 500,000 is paid members, and more than 80%of consumers are women. Jiumu Hybrid, Source: Company Official Website

It is the core emotional appeal of consumers in generations of Gen Z. In view of this, Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency uses the scenes in life to form a sales scenario, such as learning scenes for stationery products, social scenes and travel scenes.

For example, in the graduation season in June and July, stores will arrange small graduation travel scenes to place products such as trolley cases, sun hats, canvas bags; and from December to January of the following year, the store will play the theme background music creation and send it in the store. The atmosphere of the gift.

Jiumu Hydroplast (Huiju Central Store), Source: Public Comment

More than 400 stores in Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency are mainly distributed in high -quality shopping malls in the core business district of the city. The area is generally around 150 square meters. According to the calculation of 463 stores in 2021, the monthly revenue of a single store was 171,000 yuan.

Such achievements, 208,300 yuan (3,168 Chinese stores, an average annualized income of 2.5 million) from MNSO.N), is still far lower than Bubble Mart (09992.HK) 472,700 yuan (295 offline retail stores, 1.673 billion yuan in revenue).

From the perspective of performance, in 2021, the operating income of Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency was 950 million yuan, an increase of 70%year -on -year; net loss was 22.5578 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 46.39%.

Although the annual growth rate is very high, the volume is still small, compared with Chen Guang's 17.6 billion revenue scale, it accounts for a small proportion. But in another sense, this also means more room for improvement.

Source: Company Financial Report

The future of Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency is unlike Mnso.n of Miscellaneous Stores, and it is difficult to get bubble Mart (09992.HK) for target tide. Its ultimate form is more like Japan's grocery collection store LOFT with cultural and creative groceries.

LOFT Japan Kimsukawa Store, Source: AlaMy Stock Photo

LOFT is a veteran grocery collection store that is popular with consumers in Japan. In 1987, he opened his first store in Shibuya, Japan.

At present, there are more than 131 physical stores of different sizes in Japan, and they have been selected by magazines as one of the "5 Japanese department stores that make people fall in love at first sight". LOFT represents Japan's most authentic grocery culture, behind the Japanese's respect for lifestyle and the emphasis on handicraft technology.

In fiscal 2021/22, the net income of LOFT reached 102 billion yen, or about 5.04 billion yuan.

Introduction map of medium -sized stores, Source: LOFT official website

LOFT's target users are young consumers 20 or 30 years old, especially female consumers.

At present, there are 4 kinds of stores: about 3000-6000 square meters in large stores, about 1000-3000 square meters in medium-sized stores, and standard stores and small stores below 1000 square meters. The number of SKUs in the store will be adjusted accordingly according to the area.

Generally speaking, nearly 1,000 square meters of stores have more than 25,000 pieces of goods, including stationery, beauty, comprehensive daily miscellaneous, and daily necessities.

Where is the uniqueness of LOFT?

The goal of LOFT is a place to make customers "have no fixed purpose, but hope to encounter special things". This is also very similar to the development path of Jiumi Miscellaneous Store.

LOFT products are extremely rich, and even have to be selected. LOFT emphasizes the "product proposal" based on the logic of "display". By grasping the needs of consumers in different periods, different sales planning plans are launched.

LOFT planning activity, source: LOFT official website

Different from Japan, the products of Chinese cultural and creative groceries are not so rich, SKU is less than one -tenth of Japanese stores, and its products are also very homogeneous.

Therefore, China's cultural and creative grocery collection stores can only collect all known products, which is the biggest difference between the "product selection" Japanese collection store.

LOFT Ginza clerk sincerely recommended joint accounts, paper tape, source: Digjapan

Paying attention to the shaping of scenes, and "providing a visit", the Jiumu Miscellaneous Agency has the same work with LOFT in these two aspects.

04 Valuation space of cultural and creative grocery collection stores

As mentioned earlier, since 2021, the revenue and net profit of Chenguang shares have both declined. The market's concerns are mainly concentrated in several aspects: First, the epidemic disturbance, students have been on the Internet at home, learning electronicization and leading to decreased demand for stationery products. The future stationery market may continue to shrink.

Second, the pop -up of the birth population declines, the total population of students will decline sharply in the future, and the industry scale has been reduced. Third, under the "double reduction" policy, the frequency of stationery consumption will decrease in the medium and long term, and the industry growth will decline.

Therefore, at the moment, the biggest controversy in the market is that as the most interesting growth business in Chenguang's future, how should the cultural and creative grocery stores with less than 1 billion revenue revenue currently be valued?

Zhejiang Business Securities believes that the business is in the budding stage. Based on prudential considerations, it is currently not considered to be included in the business branch valuation.

However, the view of Guosheng Securities with different opinions is that, as a high -speed growth business, you should refer to Bubble Mart and Mingchuang Youpin as comparable companies, give 5 times P/S. It is estimated that the revenue in 2022 is 1.34 billion yuan, corresponding to the market value of the market value, which corresponds to the market value. 6.428 billion yuan, in accordance with the branch valuation method, the total market value of Chenuang shares will exceed 59 billion yuan. In the long -term view, if it can reach the 5 billion revenue of Japan's LOFT, the business of cultural and creative grocery collection stores should also have about four times the growth space. According to the above calculation method, this part of the valuation will exceed 25 billion yuan, and it will also push Chenuang shares to 77 billion.

Nine Mu Hideyosaica, Mingchuang Youpin, Bubble Mart Single Store income comparison, Source: Guosheng Securities Research Institute

After the listing, Chen Guang's founder and actual controller Chen's three sisters and related shareholders have reduced their holdings over 4.5 billion yuan. In January 2021, the Chen family reduced its holdings over 1.5 billion yuan in one month.

Affected by large -scale reduction, the stock price began to fall continuously. Although there was a plan to increase its holdings in December last year, the amount of 176 million yuan increased its holdings. Chen Guang's highest point was 99.67 yuan in February last year, and the lowest point touched 43.4 yuan, almost cutting.

At present, the total market value has rebounded to 50 billion yuan, which reflects the market's expectations for the future of Chenguang.

Chen Guang's stock price map, source: the same flowers Shunshun

Chen Guang's traditional stationery business will have the risk of value dissipation in the future for a considerable period of time. And the ultimate imagination of the new business can support future expectations? Investors need to pay close attention to changes in their performance.

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