Shang Tang Technology, who is "only soup", pierced the big bubble of AI?

Author:Chai Dogski Time:2022.07.07

This is an era that is good at creating new nouns. We learn new nouns explanations almost every day.

Sometimes these words are obscure, but they often describe one thing, or a very representative phenomenon with a few words.

For example, in the AI industry, there is a term: financing machine.

If these four words are carefully elusive, you will find that the content is full and full, the plot is bursting, describing the phenomenon, and also predicting the future.

For example, powerful financing machines are generally called unicorn by the industry, and the super powerful "dragon" is called "dragon". These characters and family classifications are not divided according to business capabilities, but financing capabilities and valuations.

As for the dragon, whoever does not fuses fifty or tens of billions is embarrassed to match the dragon. For example, "AI Four Little Dragons", for many years, is still the four dragons. The threshold of this family is relatively high.

The character's attribute determines the story line. In the big drama of the financing machine, the unicorn and dragon are the protagonists, but the protagonist is not necessarily the core of the story. Because it is a financing machine, the supply of these characters mainly depends on financing, and the provision of the big guys hidden behind the scenes are provided.

Just like the list of gods, Jiang Ziya was busy in front of the stage. The Yuanshi Tianzun hosted the overall situation behind the scenes. On the surface, it was to rebuild the order of the Three Realms and maintain the balance of the Three Realms.

Therefore, we must understand the nature and end of the development of the story. Be sure to understand who the last beneficiary is. The AI industry is obvious that the protagonist is not the core. Either in front of the stage or drinking soup or nothing, such as Jiang Ziya.

On the last two days of last year, Shangtang Technology, known as the largest AI company in Asia, was successfully listed in Hong Kong with the mission of "let AI leading human progress". Many people patted their hands and finally ran out ...

The story of Shangtang Technology, which has just been listed, is still hot. After all, in the AI track, Shang Tang is an absolute benchmark, and countless investors have poured in. In the future, you can find some returns from this great cause.

After listing, Shangtang's technology stock price has soared all the way, from the issue price of Hong Kong dollars/share to the highest point to a maximum of nearly HK $ 10/share, with a market value of up to about 320 billion Hong Kong dollars.

But just half a year later, the first AI share was encountered in the capital market. It quickly rushed to the hot search. The industry was discussing. What happened to Shang Tang?

In fact, those behind the scenes began to close the net.

According to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the controlling shareholders shall not reduce their holdings to sell their holdings within six months after listing. For relevant investors in Shangtang Technology, June 29 is the last period of this regulation.

As soon as the lifting period arrived, Shangtang Technology's stocks suffered a huge reduction in cornerstone investors. The stock price poured down like flood discharge. On the day of lifting the ban, it fell below the issue price, which could be described as returning to the liberation overnight.

On this day, its stock price fell 46.77%, and the turnover of the day was HK $ 6.198 billion, which was 40 times that of the previous trading day, and the market value evaporated 90 billion.

The plunge on the first day of lifting the ban has caused a large number of investors to step on and escape. As of the past many trading days, signs of improvement have not been performed on Shangtang Technology.

Is this the background of Asia's largest AI company?

According to the data of Shangtang Technology's prospectus, investors holding 22.362 billion shares before the company listed, and cornerstone investors holding 1.033 billion shares, accounting for 76%of the total shareholding.

In this game of escaping, whether it is profitable or not, it is completely unhappy, and it means that the cornerstone investors who have not ran away have lost all of the cornerstone investors.

Of course, what is even more terrible is that the stampered accident caused by the escape drama led by the behind -the -scenes leaders continues, although Shangtang Technology executives make a commitment to voluntarily ban on market information to stabilize the market information. The shares B shares were delayed until December 29, 2022.

Although there is sincerity, it is undoubtedly a salary of water.

Today (July 7) Shangtang Technology's stock price was hovering around HK $ 2.6. At present, the total market value is only 85.7 billion, and the distance has fallen by more than 200 billion yuan.

Over the case, these executives hold about 5.98%of the total share capital, while cornerstone investors account for 76%of the total shareholding.

Secondly, investors have accelerated their escape. From another level, investors have lost expectations for Shang Tang's future.

With 10,000 steps back, cornerstone investors 'actions are far more valuable than other executives' commitments for other investors.

Of course, from another perspective, stocks are risky and investment needs to be cautious. But for the targets such as Shang Tang, it is more appropriate to call it "sickle" for small and medium investors.

For example, after listing, Shangtang's stock price also fell near HK $ 4, but it was strange that it began to rebound in May this year. By the time before the ban, it once reached about 6 Hong Kong dollars.

So why return to the essence of the problem, why are the cornerstone investors who fled as soon as they arrived?

On the one hand, the head AI companies such as Shangtang Technology have been established for many years, and they mainly rely on financing and blood transfusion development, absorbing a lot of funds, and investors need to return to the book after receiving it;

On the other hand, the entire AI industry is currently facing a problem of profitable profits, especially these head AI companies, long -term dependence on external funds, blood transfusion and brutal expansion. In addition to lack of money, they are still losing money. An unknown, natural, investors have lost their patience about the AI industry. Taking Shangtang Technology as an example, according to its financial report data, the company realized revenue of 4.7 billion yuan in 2021, with a total loss of 17.14 billion yuan, and the loss was 3.6 times the revenue.

What does it mean? It took 17.1 billion yuan a year to exchange only 4.7 billion yuan in revenue. For example, I went out to work with a temporary work, and worked hard for a few hundred yuan for a day. To do things like this, it really requires technical content.

Do you say this is not angry? Is this still a business?

Of course, this 17.14 billion yuan is only a year of loss. The prospectus data shows that from 2018 to 2020, Shangtang's losses were 3.428 billion yuan, 4.963 billion yuan, 12.158 billion yuan, and 2018-2021, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang, Shang Shang. The total loss of soup reached 37.689 billion yuan.

Why loss? It is that the technology is not available, long -term high R & D investment, and executives make people's salary from the chin.

In terms of R & D, Shang Tang invested 3.06 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for 65.1%of the income ratio. In the past four years, the cumulative investment in R & D has exceeded 8 billion yuan.

In addition, according to the Shangtang's prospectus, as of six months as of June 30, 2021, the compensation of the co -founder, chairman and CEO Xu Li was 512 million yuan. Xu Bing's salary of Xu Bing was 305 million yuan, and the total salary of three senior management was as high as 1.192 billion yuan.

Ask a question from another angle, even if the merchant Tang really makes money, how many years will it take to fill in this nearly 40 billion hole?

Therefore, from this perspective, early investors may be helpless at this stage. Not only can't we wait, the key is that it is difficult for us to see a certain future from these independent AI companies.

Shang Tang was like a thorn, poking on the edge of the bubble AI. In this bubble, there are many Shangtang Technology.

On the one hand, whether it is the "Four Little Dragons" or other AI unicorn, they are deeply trapped in the quagmire and cannot see the signs of profitability;

On the other hand, in addition to Shangtang, Danghong Technology, Guling Pupils, and Eagle Hitomi Technology, they have been listed in the capital market, and Cambrian is also tentatively tentatively tentative.

From a macro perspective, the AI industry has traces of excessive packaging by capital, and the purpose of packaging is a capital game with unlimited harvesting. Now it is only ended ...

Looking at the current status of the AI industry, does AI really make money? For platform companies, its own AI technology is indeed helping companies make money in another way, such as Ali, Tencent, and bytes.

They have enough application scenarios and can quickly land to maximize the overall income by improving the efficiency of related businesses.

For independent AI companies such as Shangtang, the biggest reason for losing money is that it is difficult to apply for landing and continue to invest.

In addition, more importantly, in almost all application scenarios, technology is deeply trapped in homogeneity. Whether it is a dragon or a unicorn, although it is said that it is very technical and the investment in R & D investment, it is not avoided. No enterprise establishes its own moat, which is an irreplaceable ability.

Without this ability, the so -called strong R & D investment and technology are not enough to build the ability to make money, and there is no hole card to convince the capital market.

The terrible thing is that these fatal problems have no solution to this day ...

As a veritable elder brother in the AI industry, from the incident of capital escape, the negative impact of the entire AI industry in the capital market will also be inestimable. The most intuitive is that it will greatly weaken the financing capabilities and valuation levels of the AI industry.

It also means that the AI industry's financing machine has basically finished singing, the collection of net collection and receiving.

And the protagonists who used to be near the halo, what kind of future will there be, no one knows, because the person who updates the script has retreated ...