Zhao Ping: In the second half of the year, investment recovery speed will be further accelerated

On June 23, the monthly judgment meeting of the Bozhi Macro Forum hosted by the China Development Research Foundation was held online and offline, the theme of "Analysis and Policy Outlook for Economic Situation and Policy of the Second Half of 2022", Zhao Ping, deputy dean of the China Trade Council Research Institute Attack the meeting and delivered a keynote speech.

1. Analysis of the current three major needs situation

For the economic situation in the second half of the year, if it is based on the national policy that has been introduced, our overall judgment is still: comprehensive recovery and prospects. At present, my country's macroeconomics generally face three major pressures of supply impact, demand shrinkage, and weakened expectations. However, the three major needs of consumption, investment and net exports are different. Among them, consumption has the most difficulty, and the supply of shocks, demand shrinkage, and expected weakness is a lot. The import and export should be better, mainly because the influence of the supply and demand is not obvious. Investment is mainly affected by expected weakness. This is our basic judgment.

According to the deployment of the State Council's executive meeting, my country has introduced a package of stable economy, including 33 policies in 6 aspects, which involves three aspects of policies. The most important of which are the main policy of protecting the market. Small and medium -sized enterprises, which are affected by the epidemic, help the rescue, including tax reduction policies, and implement the total amount and incremental tax refund in more industries. ; Financial policy focuses on inclusive finance. On the basis of the original inclusive small WeChat loan of 400 billion yuan, the re -loan quota continues to roll, and the overall loan quota and support ratio will double. The guarantee will be added by more than 1 trillion yuan. Related to the maintenance market is supporting policies for infrastructure -related industries. Including railway construction bonds of 300 billion yuan, the scale of special bonds 3.65 trillion, and the scale of special bonds in 2023 can also be reached in advance. It also includes 350 billion aviation special loans and bonds. Policies related to consumption mainly include issuing 90 billion commercial truck loans, which requires localities to gradually liberalize car purchase restrictions and reduce passenger car purchase tax of 60 billion yuan. In addition to these policies, the central departments and local governments have also introduced many relief assistance policies. With the strong support of the policy, the three major needs have changed differently.

First look at the investment. Due to a package of stable economic policies, at the level of supply, the fund supply of investment is quite abundant. At the level of demand, the main body of the market, the directional support of the industry, and the infrastructure investment have improved investment needs. Many projects have accelerated in May and started in June. From May, the year -on -year growth rate of fixed asset investment can also be seen that although the overall growth rate of investment has decreased, the role of a stable investment policy is obvious. At present, the main reason for the growth of investment growth is that it is expected to be weak. As the platform economy has not yet been introduced, the transformation of the education industry, the real estate market is still unclear, and the service industry of cultural sports and entertainment is greatly affected by the epidemic. Therefore, investment confidence needs to be improved. From the perspective of investment changes in different ownership of different industries, the growth rate of state -owned holding and the investment growth of the second industry has rebounded. In the specific segmented industry, investment in major industries has achieved positive growth. Especially for hygiene and mining, the investment growth rate is very fast. However, the growth rate of education, culture, entertainment, water conservancy, transportation, transportation, warehousing and postal industry is still low.

Take a look at the foreign trade situation. Although the world economic recovery is weak, no matter how optimistic the international organization prediction is, it is agreed that the world economy is still in the recovery channel, and external demand is positively growing. In the past five months, my country's foreign trade import and export growth rate was twists and turns, but the actual import and export data in May exceeded expectations, and the new order indexes of import and exports have significantly rebounded, reaching 45%-46%. Starting this year, the China Trade Promotion Association has conducted investigations on foreign trade enterprises and foreign -funded enterprises every quarter. Among them, in the first two quarters of this year, foreign trade enterprises' questionnaire recovery volumes were more than 3,500. Our survey data shows that although nearly half of the companies in the second quarter still have trade, new orders, and profits have declined, more than 20%of foreign trade enterprises' trade amounts, new orders and profits are increasing.

At present, the problem of "one reduction, two highs, and three lacks" facing foreign trade enterprises is dividing. Among them, the problem of decrease in new orders is still relatively serious, and 52.4%of enterprises have this situation. However, the problem of lack of work has improved, and only 15.63%of the employment of enterprises has deteriorated. The problem of high commodity prices is still the primary problem that plagues foreign trade enterprises, which is more serious than the problem of decline in order. However, in May, the purchase price index of the raw material purchase of my country's manufacturing fell significantly. The problem of core lack still exists in the automotive industry, but most foreign trade companies are no longer plagued by this problem. Although the expenses of international maritime transportation are still high, due to the gradual recovery of major international routes, the issue of the Hong Kong port has improved significantly. This half -month -old Baltic dry cargo index, shock downward, coupled with domestic re -production and re -production, the problem of lack of cabinet is gradually getting better. Only 32.93%of foreign trade companies that rose from the previous quarter of logistics costs.

Consumption is currently the most affected by the epidemic. From the perspective of supply, the epidemic has a particularly impact on consumption with social and clustered characteristics. Although the business activity index of the service industry rose to 47.1, the industry's prosperity was significantly repaired, but it was still lower than the same period of the previous year. The prosperity index in industries such as accommodation, leasing and business services continued to be less than 40%. From the perspective of demand, consumer demand is still shrinking. Commodity consumption has not returned to normal, and consumption sales have been in a deep decline. Both retail sales and catering revenue are declining, and the decline in catering revenue in May is still as high as 21.1%. The growth rate of monthly social consumer goods retail sales returned from -11.1%in April to -6.7%in May. The growth of retail sales of online physical goods slowed down, and the growth rate decreased from 14.4%last year to 5.6%. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure nationwide decreased from 17.6%last year to 5.7%. In this case, consumption expectations have weakened, and consumption behavior is more rational. Specifically, the growth rate of basic living consumption expenditures is high, and the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure has increased. The average consumption tendency decreased, and the average national consumption tendency of residents in the first quarter dropped to 61.8%, 6.8 percentage points lower than last year. The consumption scenario is reduced and simplified. In May, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and textiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, household appliances and audiovisual equipment, furniture, and cars have reached double digits. 2. Judgment of economic trends in the second half of the year

In terms of investment, there is a policy of stable growth in the country. The rate of investment recovery in the second half of the year will be further accelerated. Although the trend of real estate, education, culture and entertainment and other industries will still be unclear, the trend of total investment is relatively optimistic.

In terms of foreign trade, there are also some favorable factors. Although the slowdown of global economic growth and inflation have caused the uncertainty of stagflation, it is still high, the global economic recovery is fragile, and rising raw material costs bring a greater challenge to enterprises. In addition, countries through interest rate hikes to suppress inflation may affect economic recovery and further exacerbate the difficulty of acquiring new orders. The mutation of the new crown pneumonia virus may cause new changes in the prevention and control policies of various countries, and there is a potential impact on domestic and international supply chains. The upgrading of geopolitical conflicts such as Russia and Ukraine will also disturb the regional market and international supply chain. However, my country's major trading partners, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, and ASEAN, have increased strongly, and the demand for our products is also increasing. Although my country's imports in the European and American markets have fallen, they are still in high levels. In April this year, China's import market share in the EU still reached 19.30%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the second -ranked United States. China's import market in the United States also reached 15.3%, which was only 1.65 percentage points lower than the EU.

In terms of consumption, the impact on the supply side is gradually weakening. Despite the impact of the epidemic, the supply chain is still facing certain risk challenges. The gaps in some industries still need to be supplemented. The unemployment rate of young people is high, and the income is expected to be weak. However, the manufacturing industry has a strong recovery, and the employee index rises to 47.6%. As the supply chain is gradually unblocked, although the supplier's delivery time index is still at a low level, the situation of the epidemic prevention and control situation is better, and the effects of logistics insurance and the smooth effects continuously appear. Essence The number of national railway freight volume, the number of truck trucks across the country, and the number of civil aviation guaranteeing freight flights increased from the previous month. Postal express delivery and delivery volume showed continuous recovery. Although the PMI of the manufacturing industry is still in the contraction range, it is close to 50%of the prosperity line.

From the perspective of demand, residents' income level can still maintain two synchronous growth trends. In the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of the country increased by 6.3%year -on -year; the actual increase was 5.1%, and the wage income increased by 6.6%. The growth rate was higher than that of GDP during the same period. In terms of consumption highlights, huge subsidies and green consumption policies for automobiles and home appliances will drive large consumption to stabilize. Due to the high proportion of consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, it will have a greater driving effect on consumption recovery. Therefore, we think that the overall recovery situation in the second half of the year will be better.

Third, stable economic policy recommendations

First of all, we must persist in stable words, because according to the characteristics of virus mutations and transmission, to efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of epidemic and economic and social development, protect the people's life and health to the greatest extent, and minimize the impact of epidemics on the economic and social. Reducing the impact of the supply side is very important. The unblocked market subjects, stable prices, and smooth supply chains should all become normal economic policies under the normalization of the epidemic prevention and control.

Secondly, we believe that we need to encourage innovation and enhance supply capacity. To accelerate the self -reliance of high -level technology, we must also pay attention to promoting the healthy development of the platform's economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the healthy development of the platform.

Third, we believe that for the current difficulties facing the real economy, real estate policies should also be based on risks, effectively controlling key risks, and keeping the bottom line of no systemic risk. We must adhere to the positioning of the house for living and not for speculation. From the actual situation of the local area, it can improve the real estate policy, support rigid and improved housing demand, but the stability of house prices is more conducive to the recovery of the real economy.

Finally, in terms of foreign trade, in addition to accelerating the relevant policies of stabilizing foreign trade, it is also necessary to improve the role of the network of the free trade zone in the foreign trade. In particular, the institutional dividend brought by the use of RCEP to enterprises is usedOur country exports to the largest trading partner ASEAN and major trading partners Japan and South Korea.In addition, I want to share with you the most anticipated support policies that the company reflected in the investigation process.And customs clearance at the level of convenience and reduce institutional costs.Keep the RMB exchange rate stable and reduce the risk of exchange rate erosion.

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