Multiple measures stimulate the potential of consumption. It is expected that the total probability of the total annual community is growing.
Author:Securities daily Time:2022.07.07
Consumption is regarded as the main engine of stable economic growth.
More than half in 2022, the senior researcher at the Star Financial Research Institute summarized the performance of the consumer market in the first half of the year with "one wave of three folds". He told the "Securities Daily" reporter that from January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7%year -on -year, which significantly exceeded market expectations. In March, affected by the epidemic, offline consumption scenes were greatly affected, and it also affected the normal operation of logistics supply chain. The total retail sales of monthly social consumer goods increased negatively year -on -year. Since entering May, although the total retail sales of monthly social consumer goods are still in the negative growth range, as the epidemic relieves, a series of policy support is superimposed, consumer demand has gradually boosted, and the market has gradually recovered.
Earlier, the State Council issued the "A Policy and Measures for the Economy", which proposed 6 specific policies in terms of stable investment promotion consumption, including stable increase in large consumption such as automobiles and home appliances. All departments and regions have also introduced a series of consumer measures to promote the basic consumer.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that it is expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in June are expected to rise on the basis of May. It is difficult to restore positive growth.
"The fields of catering and entertainment, which were previously affected, have improved significantly. It is expected that the consumer market will usher in further repair in June." Fu Yifu said.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Zheng Houcheng believes that the probability of a strong rebound in consumption growth is relatively low, mainly due to the restrictions on contact and scene -type consumption; the epidemic promotes the unemployment rate of urban investigation and the development of income growth is still existed. It is worth mentioning that, under the adjustment of the national cross -cycle and counter -cyclical policy, the "steady growth" intensity, including "steady consumption", is highly probably increased. It is expected that the total number of retail sales of consumer goods throughout the year is expected to be positive.
From the perspective of Fu Yifu, as people's willingness to travel and consumption is boosted, the growth foundation of the consumer market in the second half of the year will be more solid.
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