Economic recession is concerned that the price of international crude oil has dropped by 8%. Can the decline channel be opened?

In a recent report released by Citi Group, if the global economy slows down to the level of recession this year, the price of Brent crude oil futures may fall to $ 65 per barrel at the end of this year, and by the end of 2023, it may fall to $ 45 per barrel. In this context, will domestic and foreign oil prices be opened in the second half of 2022?

Author: Cai Yuekun

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || Wind data shows that starting in mid -June, the continuous price of ICE oil oil has also begun to decline, from more than $ 120/barrel to now $ 100/barrel.

， || Since the beginning of this year, the domestic reinforcement retail price limit has risen or two during the year, and the next price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 12. If international oil prices continue to fall, Zhu Ziyue analyzed to reporters that in subsequent oil prices adjustment, domestic refined oil prices are expected to be reduced.

3 || If the international oil price continues to face the macroeconomic risk at the level of transaction level mentioned above, there may also be significantly accumulated in inventory, and it may fall to nearly $ 65 to $ 70/barrel edge cost.

On July 6, the domestic market opened, and crude oil futures declined significantly. As of closing in the afternoon, the main contract of crude oil in 2022 has fallen by more than 7%.

(Source: Wind, as of closing as of the afternoon)

On July 5th, Wind data showed that international oil prices fell across the board. WTI crude oil 2208 contracts fell 8.42%to close at $ 99.50 per barrel; cloth oil September contract fell 7.67%to close at $ 104.8 per barrel. In addition, on July 5th, the domestic commodity futures night disk, crude oil contracts closed at 8.13%at 667.9 yuan/barrel. As of 15:30 on July 6, the WTI crude 2208 contract remained around $ 100.

The international oil price has fell a new low for two consecutive months since early May. A number of people from a number of futures institutions analyzed that behind the plunge in oil prices, European and American countries continued to fall into high inflation pressure, as well as measures such as the Fed and the European Central Bank forced to start rate hikes and shrinkage, which led investors to worry about economic recession.

In a recent report released by Citi Group, if the global economy slows down to the level of recession this year, the price of Brent crude oil futures may fall to $ 65 per barrel at the end of this year, and by the end of 2023, it may fall to $ 45 per barrel. In this context, will domestic and foreign oil prices be opened in the second half of 2022?

Economic recession concerns intensified

On July 6, Gu Jintao, Assistant General Manager of Hengtai Futures, said in an interview with the reporter of the Economic Observation Network that on July 5, the commodity commodity dived collectively. During the market, the yield of the 2 -year and 5 -year Treasury bonds in the United States had a short -term invention. It shows that the market is concerned about the economic recession, the deterioration of consumer confidence, the escape from risk assets, and the decline in speculative demand for crude oil. It is expected that the price of oil in the market may gradually be desertinate with the fundamentals, which will be controlled by macro factors.

Chen Gang, an analyst at Guantong Futures, told reporters that the overseas economic recession has predicted from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike market. The decline of the community has this factors. The US dollar stronger in the US dollar is strong, which is a large -scale factors that are mainly denominated in the US dollar.

CITIC Futures researcher Zhu Ziyue said that since the Fed announced 75 basis points in mid -June, international oil prices have begun to show signs of recession.

On June 15, local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve interest conference stated that the target range of the federal fund interest rate was greatly raised 75 basis points to 1.5%-1.75%. This interest rate hike also set the largest raising since 1194.

Wind data shows that starting in mid -June, the continuous price of ICE cloth oil has also begun to decline, from more than $ 120/barrel to now near $ 100/barrel.

Zhu Ziyue analyzed that since 2022, oil prices have continued to reach a new high. After the Russian -Ukraine incident, the geographical risk premium is superimposed with the tight supply and demand of international crude oil itself. In the following, international oil prices have reached a new high since the epidemic. However, after June, under the pressure of super high inflation, the Fed conducted a strong interest rate hike behavior, and investors will also start paying attention to the impact of changes in macroeconomics on oil prices.

Zhu Ziyue said that the mood of the decline in international oil prices on July 5 was mainly due to the announcement of the economic data of Europe and the United States, especially in Europe's economic data. The burning again caused a further decline in oil prices.

Domestic refined oil is expected to welcome the third time

The plunge in international oil prices may affect the performance of domestic refined oil prices next week.

At present, the price of refined oil in my country is adjusted every 10 working days. During the adjustment cycle, the main adjustment basis is the changing rate of the weighted average price of international crude oil prices from the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle.

On June 28, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the retail price of domestic refined oil products will be reduced for the second time during the year, and automobiles and diesel have been reduced by 320 yuan and 310 yuan per ton, respectively. The price increase, 92#gasoline, 95#gasoline, and 0#diesel have lowered 0.25 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.26 yuan, respectively. After this reduction, the retail price of 92#gasoline in most areas across the country is 8.8 yuan-9 yuan/liter, and 95#gasoline alone has more than 10 yuan/L.

Looking back at the international oil price market this year, according to Baocheng futures data, the US WTI crude oil futures price rose from $ 75/barrel in early 2022 to $ 30.50/barrel in early March. Brent crude oil futures price rose from $ 78/barrel at the beginning of the year to $ 139.13/barrel in early March.

With the continuous increase in inflation expectations in Europe and the United States, the Fed started to start the impact of the interest rate hike cycle, and oil prices began to return to nearly $ 100. With the sustainable development of the Russian and Ukraine War and the EU's continuous sanctions against Russia, the remaining idle production capacity of OPEC oil -producing countries was insufficient, China was successful, and the peak season for summer oil in the northern hemisphere was overlapping. In various aspects Among them, the price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States has steadily recovered from 90-95 US dollars/barrel range to the front line of $ 120/barrel.

After the Fed announced a 75 -basis point in mid -June, investors began to increase concerns about economic recession, and international oil prices also recovered to nearly $ 100.

At the same time, since this year, the domestic refined oil retail price limit has declined ten years, and the next price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 12. If international oil prices continue to fall, Zhu Ziyue analyzed to reporters that in subsequent oil prices adjustment, domestic refined oil prices are expected to be reduced.

For the price of domestic refined oil, on June 29, the National Development and Reform Commission released news on its website. In order to reduce the burden of downstream users and consumers and reduce the cost of the real economy, when the international oil price exceeded the US $ 130 per barrel of US $ 130, the upper limit of the upper limit of the control limit of the US $ 130 is limited. The price of domestic refined oil oil will no longer be raised in the short term (not more than two months). In the future, the time of international oil prices is higher than the $ 130 per barrel, which has accumulated more than two months. The Development and Reform Commission will clarify relevant policies and measures in advance.

Is the fall channel opened?

Looking forward to the international oil price trend in the second half of 2022, Hengtai Futures Research reported that in the short term, it is difficult to accelerate the increase in production of the main production country, and the demand for oil is still supported. The short -term low inventory will support the oil price. At present, global crude oil and refined oil will be The inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. From the inventory, the valuation is valued. In the medium and long term, with the rise of supply and the decline in demand growth, the price of oil or demand will fall, but the speed and amplitude of the decline depends on political factors and the speed of overseas tightening cycle.

However, Hengtai Futures said that the acceleration of overseas tightening cycles has a significant impact on commodities. Because it is still in the overseas interest rate hike channel in the third quarter, the continuous and strong stack of interest rates has suppressed the production and operation activities of manufacturing production and operation, and the commodity plates such as energy and colors are under pressure. In terms of the rhythm of the decline, considering that the Fed has opened a radical interest rate hike at 75 base points in June, and it is likely to continue this rate hike rhythm in July, there is still a greater adjustment in the third quarter. At that time, once the seasonal peak season ended in advance in the tightening cycle, and the visit to visiting OPEC in the Gulf area accelerated the pace of production, many potential downward space for oil prices then.

Regarding the trend of oil prices later, Zhu Ziyue said in an interview with reporters that the first of all should consider the overall valuation analysis of oil prices. From the current situation, three factors must be considered:

The first is the cost of marginal production, and the cost of marginal production is about $ 65 ~ 70/barrel. The current inventory is the lowest level since 2014, so if it corresponds to the marginal cost since 2014, it is about $ 90 to 95/barrel, and at the same time increases the geographical risk premium of about 10 to 20 US dollars, so we will probably probably will probably be Judging Buret has a geopolitics support on top of $ 100/barrel, which is the valuation of oil prices.

If the international oil price continues to face the macroeconomic risk at the level of transaction level mentioned above, there will also be significantly accumulated in inventory, and it may fall to nearly $ 65 ~ 70/barrel edge costs. However, if there is no significant accumulation of inventory in the spot market, the supply and demand of crude oil is still a tight pattern, so it will not fall to $ 65 ~ 70/barrel. There is a very strong fundamental support.

However, Baocheng Futures analysis stated that the current expectation of the recession may be too pessimistic. Considering that travel demand accounts for about 65%of the consumption structure of crude oil, according to our calculations, the current market's expected pricing of recession is implicit for the next peak season for travel season. During the period, the expectations of travel demand decreased or more than 6%compared to May. The decline in travel demand for this volume will be reduced to the strict level of demand in the same period of the same period of the same period according to our travel index monitoring. We believe that the market currently has a decline in crude oil demand for recession expectations.

Baocheng Futures predicts that in the second half of 2022, domestic and foreign oil prices may maintain a wide range of oscillation and consolidation, and the price focus will face downward. It is expected that the US WTI crude oil will remain in the $ 75-120/barrel range, the Brent crude oil is maintained in the $ 75-120/barrel range, and the main domestic crude oil futures contract will be maintained in the 550-800 yuan/barrel range.

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