Wu Chen: How to embrace "unknown unknown"

The biggest challenge for individuals and organizations in the Uta era is how to embrace "unknown unknown", understand things you don't know you don't know, and solve those new problems that emerge. This requires jumping out of the past paradigm and analyzing and thinking about problems with a new framework.

Author: Wu Chenchen

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Uka (Volatility, uncerertingty, complex Complexity, and Ambiguity era, new technologies, new scenes, new competitors, new game rules, and constantly deconstruct the familiar world.

The four words that make up Uta better interpret the era of drama we are in. Compared with the unchanged external environment, the enhancement of volatility is due to many new phenomena and new situations. Compared with the familiar world, the uncertain world is also because of new things that are constantly expected. The complex world allows us to analyze and judge with a new thinking mode, and the framework based on previous experience may be unreasonable. The vague world is because we do not master all the information. It is not that we know less. We can get much more data than before, but we need to understand the fields wider than before. In the world of information explosion, we need to get out of the comfort zone of our professional field. We need to recognize our ignorance, to seek the help of others, and to improve the granularity of data analysis in a "thought crowdsourcing" manner.

The biggest challenge for individuals and organizations in the Uta era is how to embrace "unknown unknown", understand things you don't know you don't know, and solve those new problems that emerge. This requires jumping out of the past paradigm and analyzing and thinking about problems with a new framework.

Seeking new becomes necessary

Three changes make the new.

The first is that the external environment has changed. In a new environment, you need to make corresponding changes to adapt to the new environment.

This year, Europe and the United States entered the era of high inflation, and many people were caught off guard at once. The reason is that behind the 2008 financial crisis, the long -term quantitative and loose cause of the financial crisis has the long -term quantitative and loose planting. There are old accounts that have chosen employment and consumption policies for employment and consumption in the past two years. The near -worrying price of price rise. High inflation has already faded out of the memory of ordinary people, especially after 2008, they are used to the environment of low inflation and low interest rates. This year's inflation has suddenly looked up. The central banks of the European and American central banks raised interest rates sharply, and suddenly changed to a new environment of high inflation and high interest rates. It is not easy to adapt to adaptation. Essence

However, if the scale of extending history is not difficult to find, inflation 40 years ago was actually common in Europe and the United States. In the early 1980s, former Federal Reserve Chairman Walker had greatly raised interest rates to successfully curb inflation, but the short -term crisis of the economy also caused President Carter to fail. Similarly, if you go to some specific countries, whether it is Turkey or Venezuela, inflation, or even malignant high inflation, it is also the external environment of ordinary people's habits.

The second is that competitors have changed. If you lack self -knowledge and do not change, you still use the old set of methods to compete, and the gap between you and others will become larger and larger.

In management, this situation is called a failure cycle. The management team has continued to use the plans that have been done in the past, but now they are constantly touched, and they have repeatedly explained to failed on the grounds of various factors and excuses.

There are many similar cases in the mall. Apple's status of Nokia's dominance of the global mobile phone industry is classic cases.

Nokia's previous opponent is other mobile phone operators. In the process of competition, it has accumulated a series of successful experiences, such as its mobile phone cost -effective, stable mobile communication capabilities, and forming deep interest binding with telecommunications operators. And Apple has brought about essential changes as the newly -promoted competitors. It launched a callable handheld computer, highlighting the convenience of mobile office and entertainment. It does not demand the stability of calls, and even the call has always dropped. Apple's software thinking is tolerant, emphasizing rapid iteration. Software will always have defects, but it is faster to repair. Software thinking allows Apple to quickly expand the ecosystem of the smartphone, making it difficult for Nokia to adapt to hardware thinking. Apple can also ignore the game rules of telecommunications operators at all, because the explosive iPhone quickly obtained the market's pricing power and dominance.

To deal with the dramatic changes brought by competitors, we must break the failure cycle and find new vitality and new sources of wisdom. It is also important that managers need to jump out of their familiar framework and look at the pattern of competition from a new perspective.

The third type is to fall into the cognition that is always limited to its own field to solve the current problems. It cannot be made for a long time and must be new. The problem of solving the horn of drilling needs to be taken into account, because the answer is likely to come from outside the familiar field. The new bottle of old wine has become particularly important. The stone of his mountains can attack jade, which is also the same reason.

After the financial crisis in 2008, Queen Elizabeth II of Britain once asked a very good question: Why did not foresee the financial crisis? Because many economics studies have been based on the assumptions of rational economy, trying to learn from physics and build a complete set of theoretical systems. In 2008, the financial crisis gave the group of economists drinking. Many people began to seek new perspectives from other fields to analyze economic phenomena, and understand and analyze the complex interaction of economic activities with biological and evolutionary thinking frameworks. In "The End of the theory", the author Bakstalberg, as a financial expert who had engaged in risk management at the top investment bank and hedge fund, chose to study the financial crisis from the perspective of the ecosystem and analyze every participant in the financial market The behavior of their behaviors, the interaction between them, and their interaction with the external environment will give birth to what systemic changes.

Similarly, Professor Luo Wenquan of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in "Adaptability Market" specifically analyzed why irrational behaviors like stepping events appeared in the market during the financial crisis. It is not difficult to find the greed or fear that often shows when the financial market rises and falls sharply, which is the universal behavior paradigm formed in the evolution.

Five ways to find new ways

Since it is necessary for the new Uta era, how to understand and deal with new things and new phenomena that are constantly emerging, and how to embrace new thinking and new ideas? Four new books give a series of new thinking. "Question is the answer" to click the key to asking questions for new and adaptation; "Tarzan Economics" (Tarzan Economics "(Tarzan Economics" vividly uses the lens of the apes of Taishan to continuously capture the vines in the rain forest, emphasizing the premise of embracing the new premise First of all, you need to learn to give up the old ideas rightly; "Framework Thinking" proposes the importance of finding new thinking models, and multiple thinking frameworks give a multiple perspective of analyzing problems. The successful framework in other fields also helps us to deal with ourselves New problems emerging in the field; "The Power of others" emphasizes the importance of seeking help. After all, no one is omnipotent, admitting that we are ignorant, and seeking real feedback and suggestions of friends in order to help us better cope with New issues and new challenges.

Five ways to find new ways from the suggestions of four books.

First, learn to let go and learn Let go.

No matter how good the past experience is, it is not suitable, so you have to let go in time. In the era of drama, everyone has to learn to transform.

What is a transformation? The transformation is to know when to adhere to the habit to make things worse, and then choose to give up the existing approach and learn to let go. To learn to let go, you need to constantly question your ability and examine your experience and cognition. We must constantly remind ourselves that errors are likely to appear; we need to have an open mind, and be willing to accept refutation evidence and other challenging information that we have not paid attention or do not pay attention to it; get along.

Only by learning to let go can you take a shot to learn and try new paths. But really to learn to let go, in fact, you must overcome the fear of leaving the familiar environment and overcome the fear of exploring unknown. In the "Taishan Economics", an analogy is made. When you reach out to grasp the new vine, you must face darkness and unknown fear, and you need to give up self -confidence. Learning to let go is also training yourself to explore the strong psychology of "unknown unknown".

Second, we must embrace the principles of the first sex, constantly ask the essence, and be limited by the assumptions of external forms and predecessors, and break the framework, expand the framework, and reshape the framework.

Musk's "First Principles" are more and more valued by more and more people. What is the first principle? It is to abandon all the information that should not be regarded as a well -known condition, look directly at the basic facts of irrefutable refutation, and then restart the inferring.

Tesla purchases aluminum wheels, with an average quotation given by suppliers of $ 500. Musk immediately questioned: the price of aluminum is $ 2 per pound, 25 pounds of wheels, and the cost of aluminum is only $ 50. Why can it be sold to $ 500 in a wheel? What technology brings ten times the value improvement.

Musk's question refers to the core: "What are the basic facts we have confirmed?" Never abandon the question because it is a general quotation in the industry. Questioning any basic issue is to challenge the current situation of rigidity, stubbornness and complacent.

Suspecting the facts is easier, and it is more difficult to doubt the deeper assumptions and thinking patterns. Adhering to the "First Principles" is a problem that encourages everyone to challenge deeply. This is our consistent approach. Everyone does this. Such a speech is very common and easy to skip. The first principle forces each of us to break the casserole to ask to the end.

Third, learn to ask questions and look at the problem from the perspective of development and dynamic perspective.

Drucker said, "No more correct answer than the wrong question, this answer may even be dangerous." Learning to ask questions is to help us sort out the starting point of doing things in the change, rather than from the beginning. Spend the energy to find the answer. Everyone needs to understand the power of questions to avoid falling into the trap that only pursues solving old problems. The environment changes, and the problem must be changed.

Learn to ask questions to help us adjust the direction of thinking. The opposite of good ideas may also be a good idea. It is difficult for many people to understand this, but it is the normal state of the real world. For example, a person may also buy luxury goods and show off products while buying cost -effective and low -quality beauty products, and such behaviors have been ancient. This behavior of consumers challenges us to simply classify users according to the price sensitivity, which requires us to jump out of the fixed thinking of simply classification of the crowd. Reverse thinking is to constantly remind yourself that the world is not black or white. Many problems cannot find the theoretical framework or the established method. What we need is to "adjust the direction of thinking". The basis of reverse thinking is to ask "what if, what if), grabbing" what may happen. " Seeing the unsightly places, measuring things that cannot be measured can make us understand the problem more clearly.

On the other side of the question to ask questions is to face the problems raised by others with an open mind, and you need to create a safe field of encouraging the problem. Many people think that others asking themselves to make troubles or question themselves, and many times they will question each other's intentions. This is actually not necessary. In the face of questions, you need to understand with the "growth mentality". The questioner pointed out that the blind spot is to help me grow; rather than the solidarity mentality. Others ask questions. His first reactions are explanation, defense, and even counterattack.

Learn to ask questions, don't rush to find the answer, this is actually the great wisdom that everyone has continued to realize with their own growth. Knowledge does not represent wisdom. It is not difficult to accumulate more knowledge, but it is much more difficult to accept that it is impossible for this world. On the way to find a new way, make your vision more open and more knowledgeable, so that you can realize your ignorance.

Fourth, new bottles of old wine.

Many novel solutions are the products of cross -domain thinking. The most common category of innovation is cross -border innovation. The successful experience in a field is used to a new field. New bottles of old wine are tried and tested. "The future is here, but the distribution is uneven." This sentence of science fiction Gibson is very practical.

For example, why did IKEA succeed? Because of its founder, Camprad, he first saw the characteristics of mass consumption transformation in other industries. After World War II, many consumer products were no longer durable products passed down from generation to generation, but became fast -moving consumer goods. The clothing industry is a pioneer, and the handed down clothes are replaced by new models launched every year. The transformation of the furniture industry is relatively lagging. Camprad saw the opportunity and launched furniture with novel styles, cheap and cheap, and simple fighting. It challenged the tradition of passing from generation to generation before, which opened up the situation and became the leader of the mass consumption transformation of the furniture industry.

Amazon's founder Bezos also has the thinking of "new bottle of old wine". Amazon's executives need to spend one or two days to serve as a customer service work every year, so as to understand the full picture of the business, and Bezos is no exception. When Bezos was doing customer service, he heard that someone complained that an outdoor furniture was damaged. He was responsible for training Bezos. He immediately guessed that the furniture of the complaint might be a lounge chair, because he accepted many similar complaints.

This case made Bezosa think of the practice of empowering the front -line employees in the Toyota operation method. As long as the employees on the Toyota Filmline see the problem, they have the right to stop the production line until the problem is resolved. Why doesn't Amazon's customer service do this? If the first -line customer service staff sees a large number of complaints of the same type, they should have the right to immediately offline related products, and urge product managers to solve the problem as soon as possible. This kind of insight, cross -border management experience is commendable.

Fifth, learn to seek help, because no one is omnipotent.

As the saying goes, it is good, walking alone, walking fast, walking together, and walking far. In a world of dramatic changes, no one can deal with changes alone, and no one can take the responsibilities brought about in this world. In particular, leaders need to find someone to share, discuss with others, need to get feedback from others, and talk to people when they are in trouble.

Learning to seek help, in fact, there are two considerations: on the one hand, you need to have friends to help you find blind spots. When you are trapped at the horns, you can help your hands and pour cold water when you are proud. "It is still a person who has a big achievement.

The timely and real feedback is the breakfast of the champion. Facing reality may be painful and difficult, but the consequences of not in the face of reality are always much worse than this. Everyone needs timely and constructive feedback in time to find their own blind spots. Similarly, everyone needs a place where they can remove their disguise, there is a rear aid that truly supports you, a network for your growth. Once your struggle is no longer a secret, it is no longer a question that you can handle, you can seek solution and support through the encouragement of others. The speaker Zig Ziglar said: "Many people can go farther than others because they believe in them."

Organization needs new, you need to make good use of "organizational dynamics"

Seeking a new journey is not a lonely journey, and it is often necessary to organize transformation. How to embrace different organizations, how to overcome inertia, how to encourage different frameworks, how to create an atmosphere of encouraging everyone to raise problems, how to help leaders learn to let go and learn to help? To answer this series of questions, you need to understand organizational dynamics.

Understanding Organization dynamics first requires leaders to have a sober understanding. In the organization, it is normal for leaders to make mistakes. Everyone can make about 60 % of the correct decisions. The biggest difference between excellent leaders and lonely people is how to treat the remaining 40 % of the decisions. Excellent leaders can quickly realize that 40 % of the decisions have problems and adjust these decisions in a timely manner. Here we organize dynamics to do nothing; bad managers are lonely. Persucting others is correct. The worst tyrant was to know that he was wearing the "emperor's new clothes", but he still shook the city, and forced others to refer to the deer as a horse.

In modern organizations, an important starting point for promoting organizational dynamics is to create a multi -perspective environment and encourage competition between ordinary thinking frameworks. To create this environment, you must first have an institutional guarantee. You can set up a "devil spokesperson", that is, people who specialize in the existing policies, can also learn the practices in military exercises, and cultivate a "Red Army" who plays hostile characters.

Before Podolny was captured by Jobs more than ten years ago, he emphasized that MBA education needs reform, change a single approach, and promote diverse thinking. After becoming the founding principal of Apple University, he emphasized that future leaders need three aspects of ability: professional knowledge and control of details, and the most critical third point is tolerance and questioning, challenging the inherent in other fields, challenging the inherent in other fields Thought, embrace diversity.

The use of organizational dynamics requires leaders to transform, from those who solve the problem to a good questioner. Many people continue to be promoted because of their strong execution, but those who are good at execution may be at a loss after boarding the top of the workplace: they do not know how to face the predicament and use the problem to spend the difficulties. They urgently need to transform and need to realize that they no longer need the smartest person in the room. Instead, high -quality issues are raised to make others the smartest person in the room, and the organization can develop. Smart, in most context, can quickly find the answer. But the most important thing to promote the development of the organization is not the answer, but to ask a good question.

This transformation can be summarized as "guidance and not command", which is specifically reflected in two aspects--

First of all, leaders need to flexibly apply their accumulated experience in their long -term practice, and share their own ideas when the organization fully shared information. Make more questions, share the way of thinking, instead of thinking, are the biggest differences of guidance and command. In other words, leaders do not need to manage excessive management, but they should let more team members decide, and they need to impose influence on how they decide. Leaders should be able to clarify the reasons behind the goal, the way of thinking, the logic of judgment, and provide opportunities to allow subordinates and teams to act. In the era of drama, the decision makers must be the closest problem, the right to handle information and implementation actions, and at the same time responsible for the results.

Secondly, leaders need to transform into "service leaders". Many people are talking about the empowerment of leaders, and this empowerment can be specifically reflected in the promotion of parallel information interoperability and collaboration, resource bottlenecks, and creating practical opportunities to promote employee growth. Of course, to implement the principle of "guiding non -command", leaders should also avoid becoming an important information node and even the bottleneck of information. Leaders need to let the team learn to manage each other's daily coordination, rather than through their own middlemen. Service -based leaders need to define what is the development goals of the enterprise, and to continuously examine the various restrictions facing the team, help the team to clear the roadblocks, and then let the team creatively solve the problem. Service -type leaders also mean that leaders need to shoulder the role of defender and Qingdaofu, do a good job of basic work, understand the problems and challenges faced by employees, and help employees to succeed. "To achieve others and achieve yourself" is a sign of the successful transformation of leaders.

To explore "unknown and unknown", everyone needs to think about the more magnificent problems corresponding to work, and constantly expand their vision and field. Such an exploration starts to keep new.

(The author executes the editor -in -chief of "Economist · Business Theory")

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