Global Financial connection ｜ The US dollar index has soared to a new high of nearly 20 years, the euro has reached a new low for nearly 20 years, and crude oil and gold have fallen.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

The US dollar index has risen to nearly 20 years of high euro hit a new low for nearly 20 years

On July 5th, the international foreign exchange market fluctuated, the US dollar index soared, breaking through 106, a new high of 20 years, the euro fell significantly against the US dollar, falling to a low point in nearly 20 years. How will the continuous rise in the US dollar index will affect the global exchange market? Let's connect the Macroeconomic High -level Analyst Liu Yaxin, a macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center.

The strong US dollar index caused the euro to fall to a new low

"Global Finance Link": The euro has fallen to a new low of 20 years, what is the reason? How to see the follow -up trend?

Liu Yaxin: The euro has fallen to a new low of 20 years and is close to the parity. The core promotion factor behind it is the strong US dollar index. The US dollar is international currency. It is generally close to or more than 50%in global cross -border payment, valuation, financing, and reserves, accounting for the highest proportion of the world. Therefore, the strength of the US dollar itself reflects the changes in global factors and will also affect the global economic and financial occurrence. From the past, currencies of various countries have generally strengthened or weakened the US dollar. Since June, the US dollar index has risen by 4.7%. The yen, Canada, Swiss francs, and RMB have depreciated against the US dollar, with the range of 4.4%, 5.1%, 5.3%, 2.9%, 1.0%, and 0.6%, which reflect this background factors.

The relative depreciation of the euro also reflects the differentiation of Europe in terms of fundamentals and monetary policy in Europe. Among them, Russia and Ukraine's conflict and other waves have played an important impact. Due to the differences in fiscal support and epidemic prevention policies, the economic recovery after the euro area epidemic was slower than the United States. At the same time, the European Union is closely linked to Russia's economic and trade. The impact of the Russian conflict on the fundamentals of the European Union is greater than the United States. At the same time, European relying on Russia's energy supply, but it also added energy sanctions on Russia in April. In the period, this has also exacerbated the instability of European energy supply, and at this stage, the US crude oil and agricultural industry industry benefited from rising prices. The European Central Bank emphasized the impact of geopolitical situations on Europe, and kept cautiously in the statement of short -term monetary policy. It was not possible to raise interest rates until July, which led to an intensified division of monetary policy with the Federal Reserve. In the short term, this situation continues, and the euro will remain weak.

In the second half of the year, the US currency policy may be turned to the loose US dollar index.

"Global Finance and Economics": The recent US dollar index has continued to strengthen. If the Fed continues to raise a sharp interest rate in July, will it further increase the dollar? How will it affect the global exchange market?

Liu Yaxin: We believe that changes in the Federal Reserve policy have an impact on the strength of the US dollar index. At present, the market believes that the probability of 75bp in July is more than 80%. In addition, the Fed's policy is lagging behind. The policy orientation of the target may be slightly boosted to the US dollar, supporting the US dollar index in a short term, but more importantly, it is more important to change the expected future for the Federal Reserve policy.

In recent days, the US dollar index has been promoted to a certain extent, and the risk aversion emotions under the expected reactive increase of recession, and from the perspective of the inverted curve of the US debt yield, market expectations and asset prices have implicit The tight speed is unsustainable. In other words, the greater the pressure of inflation, the faster the Fed's tightening, and the earlier when the US economy declines and the policy steering. We expect that the significant decline in the total US demand in the second half Or the problem of deterioration of the labor market, thereby turning the margin of monetary policy. At the same time, European Japan lags into the process of tightening, superimposed on the decline of the US economy and the loose policy margin, which will promote the US dollar index to fall.

Beauty oil fell below the $ 100 per barrel of cloth oil and fell more than 9%

International oil prices fell sharply on the 5th. As of the close, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in August closed at $ 99.50 per barrel, a decline of 8.24%. In the past two months, it fell below $ 100 per barrel for the first time. The price of Buret crude oil in London, which was delivered in September, closed at $ 102.77 per barrel, a decrease of 9.45%. Why is the international oil price fell? Will the subsequent bottom out? Let's connect with Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University.

Demand side worry about the plunge in oil prices

"Global Finance and Economics": Why does international oil prices fall? How does the current factors affecting oil prices work?

Lin Boqiang: Recently, oil prices have fallen sharply, especially yesterday, which is related to current concerns (reduction) concerns. Recently, the factors that affect oil prices are mainly the supply side. After the epidemic has improved, the demand side has rebounded. Although the current consumption of crude oil is not as good as 2019, it is very close. Therefore, if there is a problem with the supply side, the oil price will be relatively high.

However, the market is now worried about the demand side due to the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, which is the main reason for the decline in oil prices.

The possibility of oil prices falling to a historical low is not much likely

"Global Finance Link": How do you look forward to the follow -up crude oil market? Are there any space to continue to find out?

Lin Boqiang: The possibility of subsequent oil prices fell very low. It is mainly considered the issue of Russia and Ukraine. If the oil trade between Russia and the European Union is interrupted, Russia must first find a new buyer. The EU finds a new seller. Level, so (oil price) is unlikely to fall to the level of 2019.

Therefore, there is still room for oil prices from 100 points, but unless they are particularly concerned about the demand side, that is, the Fed ’s interest rate hike again has a great impact on the stock market and other aspects, otherwise it will not fall particularly low. I think it will fall, but it is difficult to be lower than 90 (USD). If Russia interrupts fuel supply to the European Union, even if there is a problem with the demand side, the overall energy price should be maintained at a high level in the next few years. The price of gas is high and the oil price is high, and the price of coal will be high. If the Russian -Ukraine conflict is not solved well, it is difficult to change.

Unless the Russian -Ukraine conflict has been solved reasonably, it is entirely possible to maintain higher energy prices in the next few years.

The price of gold fell and hit a new low of nine months

On the 5th, the gold price fell, and COMEX's August Gold Futures closed at $ 1763.9 per ounce, a decline of 2.09%. For the first time in three weeks, it fell by more than 2%in a single day, a nine -month low. What is the trend of subsequent gold prices? What aspects of investors need to pay attention to? Let's connect to the historic family of the medium futures precious metal analyst, historians.

The Federal Reserve Eagle Tone has weakened golden attraction of gold

"Global Finance and Economics": What is the current situation of the long and short game of the gold market?

Shijia Liang: The major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks have emphasized the necessity of high inflation and acceleration of policies. The eagle tone has weakened the attractiveness of non -interesting gold. The risk of economic recession has increased the risk of risks to reduce the decline of gold. Recently, the overall performance of gold has been weak, falling below the $ 1,800/ounce mark;

It is expected that the value of gold in the second half of the year will still exist

"Global Finance Link": Looking into the market outlook, what are your suggestions for investors?

Shijia Liang: After the Fed accelerated the tightening of the monetary policy path gradually clarified, the economic recession was worried about intensifying, and the geopolitical situation has not improved in substantially. Still exist. The short -term weakening of gold in the short term caused by the accelerated tightening of monetary policy or the geopolitical situation does not change the overall trend, and it is not recommended to short while the trend is not recommended. It is still recommended to stabilize multiple configurations.

In the second half of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy turned, the economic recession, and geopolitics were still the core influencing factor of the gold trend. London's $ 1675/ounce-20,000 US dollars/ounce interval is likely to operate; Shanghai Gold is likely to operate at 365 yuan/gram-420 yuan/gram. If the Fed accelerates interest rate hikes, it will have a short -term profit -shaped impact on gold. If it is basically in line with the expected adjustment, the impact on the gold will have a negative impact, but it will have a profitable impact.

Although the Federal Reserve officials possibly the possibility of economic recession, both from the perspective of macroeconomic data or the US economic micro -performance, the probability of economic recession is still high, economic recession is still heating up, the logic of economic recession trading will continue, and the commodity market will continue. The overall disadvantage will continue, and the commodity commodity is still appropriate. Therefore, under the cold and internal temperature of the economy in the second half of the year, it is expected that the main varieties are relatively weak or manifested as black> colors>. The absolute rise and fall still need to pay attention to fundamental performance. The commodity market is difficult to have a systematic market, or maintain a weak shock.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.)

Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor in charge: He Jia Du Hongyu Zhao Yue Li Yinong

Production: Yuan Sijie

Trainee reporter: Hao Jiaqi

Shooting: Chen Chen

New media overall planning: Ding Qingyun Zeng Tingfang Lai Xixun

Produced: Southern Finance All Media Group

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