The Development and Reform Commission "shot" the price of pigs rising, what happened behind it?

Since mid -late June, pig prices have continued to rise, and domestic pig prices have risen for more than 20 days. Especially in recent days, pig prices have risen rapidly.

On July 5, the National Development and Reform Commission officials were released: Study pork reserves to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

What's wrong with pork price?

Pig, pork prices, pork stocks rise

Pig during the pigs rose! On July 4th, pig futures in the domestic futures market rose. The main contract was up to 22,755 yuan per ton on the day of the September futures, an increase of 8%on the day, a new high of the year. Compared with the year of March 31, the lowest point of 16,080 yuan per ton was over 41.5%, which was 79%increased from the lowest point of 1,2650 yuan since the listing on September 30, 2021.

The price of pork rose! According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, as of 14:00 on July 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan per kilogram. Searching.com data, on July 4th, the average price of lean meat pigs was 21.69 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 1.18 yuan from the previous trading day. Compared with 14.7 yuan per kilogram of the same period last year, it rose 6.99 yuan, an increase of 47.55%year -on -year. The prices of Beijing, Tianjin, Ningxia, Fujian, Hunan, Henan and other provinces have reached or exceeded 22 yuan.

Pork stocks rose! Even the stock market rose. On July 4th, the pork concept sector led A shares, up 6.56%; more than 10 pig concept stocks including head companies including Muyuan shares rose daily limit.

Iriliax sales appear in the market

Stocking, waiting for a cycle turning point?

According to the test data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, as of 14:00 on July 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.8%over Friday.

In fact, since June 10, pig prices have continued to fluctuate -China Pig Raise Network Data shows that on July 4, the price of foreign pigs was 21.48 yuan/kg, which was 15.99 on June 10th, 15.99 on June 10th 15.99 on June 10th. The /kg rose nearly 34.33%, an increase of more than 70%from the low point in March.

"At present, the market is still at the bottom of the cycle. From the second half of last year, to the first quarter of this year, the overall" long L "trend, which is a typical large -cycle bottom form". The Securities Times explicitly stated in an interview.

After the bottom, the views of all parties did not clearly indicate when the inflection point arrived. However, the phenomenon of the unreasonable voltage fence and the secondary fattening of the market has caused the price of pigs to rise too fast, and some fabricated price increase information further exacerbated the market for sale in the short term.

The Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that blind fences and secondary fertilizers may lead to concentrated fences in the later period and the price fell rapidly again, resulting in the ups and downs of market prices, but it is not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long -term healthy development of the industry.

National Development and Reform Commission: Study on the launch of the launch of the central pork reserves

On July 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in response to the recent irrational behavior such as blind selling fences in the pig market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission was studying the launch of the central pork reserve, and guided localities to jointly launch reserves in a timely manner to form regulation and control. Combat force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

Information Tu Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yan

In addition, according to news from the National Development and Reform Commission on the 4th, in response to the recent rapid rise in the price of pigs, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises. According to the analysis of the relevant parties, the important reason for the recent rapid rise in domestic pigs is that the market has irrational pressure fences and secondary fattening. Some media, especially self -media, fabricate and spread the price increase information, rendered the price increase atmosphere. In the short term, in the short term Exhausting the market's mood.

The meeting pointed out that the current production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant, and the consumption is not strong. The price of pigs does not have the foundation of continuously rising; blind fences and secondary fattening may lead to the fate of concentrated fences in the later period, and the price has fallen rapidly, which will cause market prices to rise and fall, but instead It is not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the healthy development of the industry.

Participating representatives unanimously stated that it will strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job of the pig market to protect the price of stable prices, and maintain the rhythm of the normal fence and not cover the fence. "Cooling" and strengthening market supervision, especially the behavior of deliberately cracking down on the atmosphere of price increases and creating panic emotions.

At the meeting, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the state has always paid close attention to changes in the market price of raw pork and pork, strives to prevent sharp fluctuations in prices, and maintain the smooth operation of the market. Blind pressure fences remind companies not to hoard their accumulation of strangeness, coax the prices, and do not collude the price increase; it is clearly stated that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment will be taken in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. Violations such as price increase information and raising prices, maintaining normal market order, and promoting the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Pork stocks fell, how to go in the market outlook?

In the early morning of July 5, the pork sector continued to fall, Jingji Zhinong fell more than 4%, Heroes, Deleis, and Dongrui Co., Ltd. fell more than 3%. Before.

Founder Securities Research reports that the recent rise in pig prices is mainly due to the gradually emergence of the early production capacity dewlocation results. The recent stable consumption of the epidemic is heated, and the breeding households have a strong sales emotion. Therefore, pig prices have risen rapidly in the past two weeks.However, from the perspective of terminal consumption, the slaughtering plant has not taken the goods smoothly, and there is still room for further recovery of consumption. Looking forward to the market outlook. Due to the recently -sold and secondary fattening behavior of farming households, the production of pig production capacity may be short -term or concentrated pressure.There is a risk of callback.However, in general, consumption in the second half of the year is relatively strong, and the early production capacity is depleted or sufficient. Even the market for the market for short -term callbacks will still not change the trend of shocks and continues to recommend the pig breeding industry.Source: Well -off headline comprehensive China Economic Network, WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission, Securities Times, First Financial

Responsible editor: Tian Yuan Yingying

School pair: Wu Jinyang

Review: Gong Zimo

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