In the middle of the night, international oil prices have plummeted, and the maximum decline in the past 3 months

Chief reporter Zeng Lingyi

In the middle of the night on July 5th, international crude oil plummeted by 10%, and the maximum decline in nearly 3 months. Bloomberg's economy expects that the possibility of US economic recession in 2023 reached 38%. Analysis states that the economic recession is concerned about the rapid heating up again, and the rapid spread to risk assets is the main reason for the sharp decline in oil prices.

On the evening of July 5th, Beijing time, the US WTI crude oil futures price fell to $ 97.65/barrel, down 10%; the lowest of Brent crude oil futures in Brent fell to $ 101.15/barrel, down 10.88%.

The price of international crude oil in the middle of the night on July 5th plunged 10%

Since the beginning of this year, due to the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, Russia, a crude oil exporter, has been sanctioned by Western countries, and international oil prices have continued to rise. In early June, WTI and Brent once rushed to more than $ 120/barrel, reaching the high level since March this year, both increased by about 50%from the beginning of the year, and rose by more than 65%year -on -year. However, since the Fed made a rate hike decision on June 16, the market has begun to worry about the prospects of global economic development and the rise in oil prices is weak. On the evening of July 5, this concern increased again, and WTI fell directly to less than 100 yuan.

Han Zhengji, an analyst at the commodity price monitoring agency, told Jimu Ji, a journalist that the economic recession is concerned about the rapid heating up again, and the rapid spread to risk assets is the main reason for the sharp decline in oil prices. The expectations of acceleration and tightening liquidity increased, and investors' bullish emotions for the crude oil market gradually faded.

"At present, the global currency has entered a tightening period. During June alone, the Federal Reserve is led by the United Kingdom, Europe, Japan, Canada and other central banks. Later, the Federal Reserve is still expected to adhere to the tightening of the monetary policy. Under this promotion, the US dollar index also touched a new high in 20 years, which further increased the cost of buying the commodity unit with the US dollar as the denomination unit, which made energy demand the snow. The performance that is not as expected has also caused the market to start worrying about the supply and demand pattern. "Han Zhengji said.

According to Bloomberg's latest forecast, the possibility of US economic recession in 2023 reached 38%. The most obvious indication is that international oil prices have suffered severe frustration.

On July 5th, Citi warned that in the situation of economic recession, if there were no OPEC+(13 OPEC member states such as Saudi Arabia and non -OPEC member states led by Russia), the short -cycle oil investment decreased, and the price of crude oil would be in 2022 It fell to $ 65/barrel at the end of the year, and by the end of 2023 to $ 45/barrel. The further weakening of global crude oil demand will lead to increased inventory and decline in price. The agency is expected to have an average price of WTI crude oil at $ 95/barrel in 2022, $ 72/barrel in 2023. It is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2022 is $ 98/barrel, and $ 75/barrel in 2023.

Earlier, the US Energy Agency (EIA) has reminded the economic growth to slow down may affect the demand for crude oil. On June 7, the U.S. Energy Agency predicted in the "Short -term Energy Outlook Report" released that Brent oil prices will fall to $ 108/barrel in the second half of this year, and by 2023, it will further fall to $ 97/barrel. The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down, high oil prices push inflation, and will also affect the demand for crude oil, and OPEC crude oil production will gradually return to the level before the epidemic. Therefore, "crude oil prices are highly uncertain."

As of press time, the US WTI crude oil futures price is $ 99.94/barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures is $ 99.66/barrel.

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